UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen

[mmaday4day]

It is way more likely that Sandhagen wins a decision than the other way around but I can also see Moraes not blowing his whole gas tank in 2 rounds knowing full well the fight will be 5 rounds.

Moraes did fight 5 rounds against subpar competition in the WSOF and he won both times. So if he doesn't get pushed and pressured, he has no problem settling into a rhythm and going 5 rounds and winning. But Sandhagen has so much volume and fights at such a high pace, that I don't see him letting Moraes get off the hook. This is MMA so you never know; maybe Moraes hurts Sandhagen on multiple occasions and Sandhagen fights more timid as usual as a result, but the general assumption is that Moraes needs to finish early and I agree.

 

[Kazda1]

omg haha

You're not even concerned a little bit that Cortez doesn't shoot in and tries to keep it standing? If it stays that way are you totally sure in Egger's game not to get tagged up coming in? Some of these women get hit a few times (especially the ones who can't strike) and they're no longer willing to try and wrestle - they just get picked apart for 3 rounds.

I totally get what you're seeing, I just wish I was totally confident in it

 

[careto]

Moraes did fight 5 rounds against subpar competition in the WSOF and he won both times. So if he doesn't get pushed and pressured, he has no problem settling into a rhythm and going 5 rounds and winning. But Sandhagen has so much volume and fights at such a high pace, that I don't see him letting Moraes get off the hook. This is MMA so you never know; maybe Moraes hurts Sandhagen on multiple occasions and Sandhagen fights more timid as usual as a result, but the general assumption is that Moraes needs to finish early and I agree.

Fair enough, I agree with that assessment. I have a bit more faith in Moraes hurting Sandhagen early and possibly finishing him.

 

[Card]

Said he was too calm last fight, - note: coming with 2 corner team instead of main event 4.

 

[Broe.]

You're not even concerned a little bit that Cortez doesn't shoot in and tries to keep it standing? If it stays that way are you totally sure in Egger's game not to get tagged up coming in? Some of these women get hit a few times (especially the ones who can't strike) and they're no longer willing to try and wrestle - they just get picked apart for 3 rounds.

I totally get what you're seeing, I just wish I was totally confident in it

I am not even sure that cortez is the better striker tbh. She was getting tagged by superslow melo over and over again and could only beat her in the clinch. I am not sure how well she can handle a severe reach disadvantage. Egger might not be a good striker but at least she has a jab and is pretty athletic.

 

[ill800]

Now Henry cejudo has better boxing than sandhagen?

alrighty then.

ignore list is getting loaded today.

 

[Kazda1]

I'm starting to think Nascimento get starched by Daukaus. Nascimento left plenty of openings against Mayes and I feel there might be an opportunity or more this time around also.

Also during this timeframe I'd be worried about anyone not taking their conditioning seriously. Nascimento weighed in 10 pounds heavier this go round while Daukaus weighed in 14 pounds lighter. Gonna take a stab on what I feel might be the faster striker in close range since Mayes couldn't get the job done when presented the chances.

 

[careto]

Now Henry cejudo has better boxing than sandhagen?

alrighty then.

ignore list is getting loaded today.

Yes, Henry Cejudo who has an amateur boxing background has better boxing than Sandhagen who doesnt. You can see this is in any of their fights.
Sandhagen has terrible defense BTW, keeps his hands way too low while striking.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I'm starting to think Nascimento get starched by Daukaus. Nascimento left plenty of openings against Mayes and I feel there might be an opportunity or more this time around also.

Also during this timeframe I'd be worried about anyone not taking their conditioning seriously. Nascimento weighed in 10 pounds heavier this go round while Daukaus weighed in 14 pounds lighter. Gonna take a stab on what I feel might be the faster striker in close range since Mayes couldn't get the job done when presented the chances.

Nascimento is the favorite for a reason, but Daukaus had plenty of notice for this fight and time to prepare.

It does not seem realistic that Daukaus would not have spent a lot of time during his camp working on takedown defense, getting back to his feet, and reversals.

For what its worth Daukaus also has a black belt in BJJ, so if Nascimento is able to get this fight to the ground he should be able to defend himself before getting back to his feet at the very least.

Nascimento deserves to be the favorite, but Daukaus knocking him out is a very real possibility.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Moraes did fight 5 rounds against subpar competition in the WSOF and he won both times. So if he doesn't get pushed and pressured, he has no problem settling into a rhythm and going 5 rounds and winning. But Sandhagen has so much volume and fights at such a high pace, that I don't see him letting Moraes get off the hook. This is MMA so you never know; maybe Moraes hurts Sandhagen on multiple occasions and Sandhagen fights more timid as usual as a result, but the general assumption is that Moraes needs to finish early and I agree.

Moraes only look good in first round second round maybe but at that Sandhagen has all the other rounds on him. Well if he learned from the last fight Sandhagen could take first round. Everyone seemed good on the weigh in. Which then this becomes a bit more tricky.

 

[mmaday4day]

Favorite underdogs: Stephanie Egger, Ilia Topuria, Chris Daukaus

Most confident picks: Tom Aspinall, Tagir Ulanbekov, Edson Barboza, Ben Rothwell, Tony Kelley

 

[TrueAscension]

Guys the whole “Moraes has a gas tank for one round” is the same argument people had against Gaethje when he fought Ferguson.

One could assume Moraes has been working on his cardio and is preparing for a 5 round fight.

Cory has porous defense in the stand up and, if this fight gets to the ground, he’s dead.

While it’s definitely possible Moraes just gasses after a round, I think that’s a false narrative based on his most recent outing where he beat the breaks off Cejudo in the first round. I don’t see Cory taking any of that punishment without melting.

 

[MikeK1989]

Guys the whole “Moraes has a gas tank for one round” is the same argument people had against Gaethje when he fought Ferguson.

One could assume Moraes has been working on his cardio and is preparing for a 5 round fight.

Cory has porous defense in the stand up and, if this fight gets to the ground, he’s dead.

While it’s definitely possible Moraes just gasses after a round, I think that’s a false narrative based on his most recent outing where he beat the breaks off Cejudo in the first round. I don’t see Cory taking any of that punishment without melting.

The narrative started when he went all out to finish Cejudo. Which a lot of UFC fighters fall into. They get someone hurt/ on the ropes and blow their wad. That comeback from Cejudo is one of, if not the best comeback of the 2000s. (Maybe Yair but that was luck?)

Regardless, Moraes has this stigma that he gasses which is absurd.

 

[OldFashion]

thinking about putting a hundo on Marlon

 

[Oblivian]

This is a just bleed god event. I see a lot of finishes tonight.

 

[KingConorMcGreGoat]

Moraes will face Aljo after he melts Sandhagen unless Aljo ducks. Then Moraes will get the titleshot. Aljo still having nightmares

 

[mmaday4day]

Guys the whole “Moraes has a gas tank for one round” is the same argument people had against Gaethje when he fought Ferguson.

One could assume Moraes has been working on his cardio and is preparing for a 5 round fight.

Cory has porous defense in the stand up and, if this fight gets to the ground, he’s dead.

While it’s definitely possible Moraes just gasses after a round, I think that’s a false narrative based on his most recent outing where he beat the breaks off Cejudo in the first round. I don’t see Cory taking any of that punishment without melting.

While I would give Moraes the benefit of the doubt and say that he has a gas tank for 2-3 rounds (even at a higher pace), I'm still convinced that he needs to finish Sandhagen within 3 rounds in order to win the fight.
It's not just the Triple C fight, Moraes was also getting tired against Aldo in the 3rd... he is a muscular and explosive guy and he also starts fast and goes hard in the first round; thats not a good combination to go 5 full rounds in the UFC and you can't just fix that with a snap of the fingers. In the WSOF he used to start slow, so he had no problems going 5 rounds (against subpar competition), so maybe he needs to go back to his old ways. Now Sandhagen may not be the more technical fighter and his defense leaves a lot to be desired, but he will keep spamming punches and kicks all day long if Moraes doesn't finish him. Moraes could easily finish Sandhagen in the early stages of the fight, that's why I'm not betting serious money on this fight. But make no mistake, Moraes backers will be shitting bricks if this fight goes to the 3rd, 4th, or 5th round.

 

[2bet]

Jjust rewatched Sandhagen vs Alcantara.
Unbelievable that Sandhagen was able to survive that Armbar, he was even able to throw punches after that.
That guys flexibility is insane

 

[Sadistics]

Guys the whole “Moraes has a gas tank for one round” is the same argument people had against Gaethje when he fought Ferguson.

One could assume Moraes has been working on his cardio and is preparing for a 5 round fight.

Cory has porous defense in the stand up and, if this fight gets to the ground, he’s dead.

While it’s definitely possible Moraes just gasses after a round, I think that’s a false narrative based on his most recent outing where he beat the breaks off Cejudo in the first round. I don’t see Cory taking any of that punishment without melting.

On top of what mmaday4day said, notice that every time Marlon has left rd1 in the UFC it's either been a split or a loss.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

This is a tough fight spot for the young Cory Sandhagen Marlon is tough.