Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by BigSteve, Jan 24, 2021.
Keen to put that rubbish results behind me
Surprised valiev vs arce is so close. I think valiev is clearly the better fighter.
I am not going to be so high on the some of favorites for this fight card.
After what happened on 257.
Don't know how it will play out but I really want Overeem to win. Would love to see him make another title run.
Looking at initial odds I like
Maybe Ewell as a big dog, Sandhagen will have to look into props or overs. Macy decision prop but I expect that to be garbage odds. I am also very interested in Arce as an underdog but I'm not familiar with his opponent.
Also considering ways to play MJ versus Guida because I am a scumbag degenerate who never learns his lesson with MJ.
Volkov and Sandhagen via KO.
Guida could outwrestle MJ, who can look great for a moment and grasp the defeat from the jaws of victory. Guida went 15 min with Bobby Green whose TDD has been pretty solid and MJ has lost 3 in a row... Possible dog pick here.
I got ferreira at evens, liked the odds. Think he's got the crisper hands and better jits, beneil is very good but just sloppy. Frankie is tempting me but i know he's most likely losing. I'll prob put a couple bucks on his sub prop for the lols.
Already on durinho on the next card too. Think there's great value.
Kape and Pantoja should be a banger
Arce is moving down in weight for this fight btw. Will be a rough cut for him I imagine. The fight will be at 135.
Frankie decision sounds real nice. Frankie won't brawl with sandhagen and didnt someone else mention that Sandhagen has like 30% TDD?
Pantoja + Gilbert parlay.
I like Reem at these odds.
Oddly enough both Volkov and Reem are underappreciated at heavyweight. What I love from Volkov - even though he lost to Blaydes he was giving Curtis some probelms later on in the fight especially cardio wise.
I just think Reem has been fighting so well and technically patient the last few fights.
Exactly man, you got a point. For some reason i had this idea it was a 5 rounder, i can see frankie getting a 3 round dec win as well. Maybe just play his ml. Either way, playing cory at those odds is nuts. Dog or pass.
Really? What do you see? Not being a dick I'm just curious.
I think he looks like the more busy fighter and the faster starter, but better where, at what?
See no reason why McCann is a decent favourite, looks like a typical wmma 50/50 to me.
Bet Benny when lines first opened and I'm really surprised to see his line has improved. I love CDF, I think he's improved a lot, great pressure game too but a lot of what won Benny the first fight is still in play here, Benny is still the bigger man, still has the ability to muscle him in the clinch, can still get takedowns and top control and he's the more dangerous striker.
Weekly parlay, UFC Apex, February 6
Macy Chiasson -190, 4 inch reach Adv
Michael Johnson -200, 3.5 inch reach Adv
Mike Rodriguez -210, 5 inch reach Adv
Molly McCann -200, 3-2 in UFC since May 2018
Cody Stamann -300 5-2-1 in UFC since 2017
Cory Sandhagen -400, 6-1 in UFC since 2018
Some words I found:
big, long, height 5"9", she's strong in the clinch and on the ground and definitely has power in her strikes. She needs to clean up her striking game. She KO'd Mazany and dropped Kianzad but both sequences were pretty sloppy. She could very well be one of the most well rounded women on the roster, especially if she keeps evolving and getting that much needed polish
Since getting submitted by Gilian Robertson in her UFC debut, Molly McCann has worked diligently on her wrestling and ground game. Formerly known as a boxer/brawler, “Meatball” desperately needed to round out her skill set and she’s done so.
Against both Ariane Lipski and Diana Belbita, McCann’s takedowns and top control helped her to win decision victories.
McCann will stand and bang initially, expect her to start wrestling within a few minutes. On the feet, McCann has serviceable boxing. This isn’t to say she’s an elite striker, but she moves well and throws effective combinations.
A long and lanky southpaw, Rodriguez would be best to play the role of matador and land straight lefts, front kicks and inside leg kicks. In open space, Rodriguez will dominate and his straight left will land at will. He should also be able to hold his own in the clinch.
Stamman is a difficult guy to hit and has footwork, feints and counters. He’s also a strong wrestler. A former Golden Gloves champion, Stamann has sharp boxing and a great counter left hook. He’s good at sliding just out of the way of incoming punches and is defensively responsible.
A long and rangy fighter, Sandhagen’s striking is his most notable asset.
Against Austin Arnett, Sandhagen’s footwork, head movement and use of angles were highly effective. His shot selection is extremely creative and he has a striking advantage over most of the division.
Sandhagen’s grappling, especially his defensive wrestling, is still a bit of a question mark. Although he’s looked competent on the mat in the brief glimpses we’ve seen, he hasn’t been tested by an opponent that will look to take him down repeatedly.
yeah makes no sense CDF is tehe favourite, I rewatched their first fight, it wasn't that long ago and neither fighter has really changed much imo. The way they fight now is very similar to how they were fighting then. they have both improved but their style is still the same. Dariush was owning him in every aspect and especially in the grappling, CDF's strong suit. Dariush was physically overpowering him and he is still the bigger man here. In my opinion Dariush should be like -200.
Volkov. I think overeem's chin will fail again and...Volkov is tough and scrappy. Will prob be losing but hanging around and get a tko in the 4th
This is a classic example of a WMMA fight to stay away from. Procopio's striking sucked hard against Rosa and she has no offensive grappling to speak of. There is also a possibility that Meatball will be able to take her down repeatedly, which is the dirty little secret behind her winning streak.
HOWEVER, the fight against Rosa happened 1.5 years ago and Procopio just turned 25 years old. Neither the Meatball's striking nor her grappling is remotely good enough that even moderate improvement wouldn't make for a close fight.
Thus, based on how much or how little Procopio has improved during that time, the present -165 Meatball could be value or +145 Procopio could be value. Unless you're hanging out at Nova Unioa, there is literally no way to tell which one it is.
I will make an exception for the people who hit Procopio's +300 opener. That's absolutely a gamble worth taking.
He has to be real close 4-1 in his last 5 with only loss to Rozenstruck which was in the 5th round that he was dominating the fight
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