UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov

I want to play Overeem but it's hard to trust him against Volkov in a five round fight.

I think there's some real value on Edgar. He ate some bombs from Munhoz, and won the fight.

Sandhagen's TDD isn't good, and he's never fought a wrestler the caliber of Edgar.

There's a lot of recency bias on Cory, but in a 3 round fight, Edgar has so much experience and knows how to win rounds/close fights.

I played him at +315 already, look at Cody's record. I'm not wiki capping, I've seen all of his fights. But he legitimately has never fought a fighter remotely similar to Frankie.
 
Invictis said:
I want to play Overeem but it's hard to trust him against Volkov in a five round fight.

I think there's some real value on Edgar. He ate some bombs from Munhoz, and won the fight.

Sandhagen's TDD isn't good, and he's never fought a wrestler the caliber of Edgar.

There's a lot of recency bias on Cory, but in a 3 round fight, Edgar has so much experience and knows how to win rounds/close fights.

I played him at +315 already, look at Cody's record. I'm not wiki capping, I've seen all of his fights. But he legitimately has never fought a fighter remotely similar to Frankie.
Click to expand...

I'm also kinda tempted by Frankie. I need to rewatch the Corey Vs Sterling fight to remind myself how Sandhagen ended up in the position he did.
 
I also think there's potentially some value there on Montano.
 
I am going with mj and diego. Diego, i am not too sure but i think mj takes the win against guida.
 
I kinda like McCann. I don't think Procópio's striking has improved very much.

*Edit whoops guess this video is alot older than I thought.
 
Last edited:
Broe. said:
yeah makes no sense CDF is tehe favourite, I rewatched their first fight, it wasn't that long ago and neither fighter has really changed much imo. The way they fight now is very similar to how they were fighting then. they have both improved but their style is still the same. Dariush was owning him in every aspect and especially in the grappling, CDF's strong suit. Dariush was physically overpowering him and he is still the bigger man here. In my opinion Dariush should be like -200.
Click to expand...

6+ years ago is not a long time ago? I really don't see how you can say CDF hasn't changed much. His striking has improved drastically since that time. I don't think the CDF that fought in 2014 beats Khabilov, Taisumov, or Pettis honestly. I think CDF has changed a lot, but I'd agree Dariush is the same fighter. If this is a ground fight, I think it's close, but honestly, I see CDF piecing Dariush up on the feet.
 
Cdf should have the faster hands but I could see Beneil bullying him in the clinch.
 
MMAOracle said:
I am going with mj and diego. Diego, i am not too sure but i think mj takes the win against guida.
Click to expand...

This is such a great live bet spot imo. Mj might win round one (or KO him in round one) but if Guida can make this a scrappy fight I think he can win this. Im not comparing Guida to Filli but I could see this fight going in a similiar fashion.

MJ is a washed fighter coming off a major knee injury. He seems like the guy whos fighting for money at this point. Dog or pass for me or live bet like I said.
 
DonQ94 said:
I hope that was a troll comment. There's a ton of value in WMMA, especially on underdogs.
Click to expand...
Yup if you dont feel like your favorite in WMMA will do well a underdog in WMMA will make you quite a decent outcome..
 
Diego disappeared after the Pettis win last year. If he is the same guy I see him knocking wild man Dariush out possibly in the first round.

MJ might be the better fighter but he has that certain ability to lose fights he should win. Guida had a pretty close fight with Green in the end. But you never know when MJ realizes his career is on the line and just comes in focused. Currently value is on Guida imo.
 
Mj struggles with grapplers, also has a tendency to fade
 
Call me crazy but i actually liked procopios jab and output. I dont think mccann is necessarily a better striker. Both get hit a lot.
 
Oblivian said:
6+ years ago is not a long time ago? I really don't see how you can say CDF hasn't changed much. His striking has improved drastically since that time. I don't think the CDF that fought in 2014 beats Khabilov, Taisumov, or Pettis honestly. I think CDF has changed a lot, but I'd agree Dariush is the same fighter. If this is a ground fight, I think it's close, but honestly, I see CDF piecing Dariush up on the feet.
Click to expand...
Wow that would really surprise me. He could overwhelm dariush with punches but cdf having the technical edge in striking? That would really surprise me. Cdf is also 36 already while Dariush should be in his prime now.
 
guaton said:
there was definitely value on marina rodriguez last saturday tho
Click to expand...

Really? You think there was value in her pre-fight line of +250?

I didn't bet the fight either way, but this smacks of pure hindsight bias. Ribas took Rodriguez down at will in round 1, and was a mere -1100 favorite after round 1. I passed on Rodriguez at +5XX and had zero regrets, even after the fight.

Rodriguez hit a home-run knockout, something she has literally never done in her UFC career thus far (5 fights, no finishes), let alone against someone like Ribas, who has much better movement and defense than anyone Marina has previously faced.

Just because an underdog hits doesn't necessarily mean there was predictable value in their line.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,236,690
Messages
55,434,859
Members
174,775
Latest member
kilgorevontrouty

Share this page

Back
Top