UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov

[Captain Chesapeake]

People really want to drop big money on Michael Johnson at these prices?

And sandhagen with his weak tdd against frankie Edgar?

Have we learned nothing about implied probability or are we subscribed to the wiktorus “numbers dont fight” strategy?

 

[svmr_db]

People really want to drop big money on Michael Johnson at these prices?

And sandhagen with his weak tdd against frankie Edgar?

Have we learned nothing about implied probability or are we subscribed to the wiktorus “numbers dont fight” strategy?

I think Frankie is gonna struggle with Sandhagen's height & reach, he can't stand with Sandhagen he'll get pieced apart.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I think Frankie is gonna struggle with Sandhagen's height & reach, he can't stand with Sandhagen he'll get pieced apart.

that may be true but frankie may also be able to take him down.

Do you really see any value in -440? 8 out of 10 implied probability?

when we start getting into these high minus numbers it becomes harder to see what value is there

is that really a smart bet? Going big on that number when there are much better spots on the card?

 

[HighStakesMMA]

I have a soft spot for Volkov because his win over Werdum was one of my better MMA betting moments. I'll be taking Overeem in this spot. I don't think Volkov hits hard enough, pushes a hard enough pace, or is well-rounded enough to justify being such a big favourite. I would cap this fight at either a pick 'em, or maaaaaybe a slight fav for Volkov.

Guida at dog odds just because MJ always falls apart. Small sprinkle.

Frankie at this price...he showed me something against Munhoz. I'll take a stab on his heart and veteran savvy. Am also curious to see if he can implement a wrestling game plan. If he tries to box with Sandhagen all night then the odds may be justified. Just not sold on Sandhagen being so juiced. I don't think Frankie will ever be a title contender again but he's still well above gatekeeper status.

 

[WolfgangKennelz]

What do you think about locking thousend of EUROs on Sandhagen? I dont believe that Edgar has a chance.

I agree with you. Sandhagen wins. But big difference between -200 and -440

Mj might win but do you really belive he´s a better grappler then Guida, he got some of the worst ground game in the division.

I worded it wrong. MJ isn't better than Guida at every facet.. I don't think it gets to that tho. I'm not trying to overthink the fight based on past performances. Just think smart money is on MJ just sparking Guida out on the feet. Guida will look like he's moving in slow motion trying to press, and I think there's a high probability MJ KOs him in less than 2 minutes. Or at least damages him, bloodies him and compromises Guida early with something.
Guida can guillotine him in 60 seconds and I look like the biggest moron, but that's gambling and I think MJ is literally a fighter 2 levels above Guida at this stage

 

[theTKDguy]

I worded it wrong. MJ isn't better than Guida at every facet.. I don't think it gets to that tho. I'm not trying to overthink the fight based on past performances. Just think smart money is on MJ just sparking Guida out on the feet. Guida will look like he's moving in slow motion trying to press, and I think there's a high probability MJ KOs him in less than 2 minutes. Or at least damages him, bloodies him and compromises Guida early with something.
Guida can guillotine him in 60 seconds and I look like the biggest moron, but that's gambling and I think MJ is literally a fighter 2 levels above Guida at this stage

Maybe the under then?

 

[Card]

MaRCeL DoRFF @BigMarcel24

Unfortunate news. Andre Ewell is out of his scheduled fight this Saturday against Cody Stamann at #UFCVegas18. Stamann will likely remain on the card against an opponent TBA.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Stamann to face Askar Askar.

Need to watch some tape on Askar, he's 11-1 and the ufc just signed him.

 

[TrueAscension]

On what planet does Michael Johnson knock Clay Guida out in the first round

 

[guaton]

On what planet does Michael Johnson knock Clay Guida out in the first round

i'm perplexed, 20 losses and only 2 by ko his whole carreer. last time on 2016 by ortega's knees? MJ won't get that, last time he got a ko was on 2016 against Poirier. i think Guida takes it.

i'm thinking ML Dariush, ML Guida, maybe ML Marques, Zalal+guida+beneil parlay, maybe pantoja too. pondering on frankie edgar but it's blurry. anyone got something on marques vs rodriguez?

 

[WolfgangKennelz]

i'm perplexed, 20 losses and only 2 by ko his whole carreer. last time on 2016 by ortega's knees? MJ won't get that, last time he got a ko was on 2016 against Poirier. i think Guida takes it.

i'm thinking ML Dariush, ML Guida, maybe ML Marques, Zalal+guida+beneil parlay, maybe pantoja too. pondering on frankie edgar but it's blurry. anyone got something on marques vs rodriguez?

His fight vs Jim Miller got stunned bad by a punch. Right into a guillotine. The punch did the damage. His fight vs Charles Oliveira tapped from a guillotine in less than 3 seconds. To think he's super durable is erroneous, and if guida can't get MJ down.. he will get absolutely outvolumed on the feet. Just another takeaway... I feel MJ would have no problems with Bobby Green. Bobby Green got by guida last fight. People are overthinking MJ because how he gives these fights away.. I'm just not gona overthink it. Easy win for MJ

 

[BigSteve]

His fight vs Jim Miller got stunned bad by a punch. Right into a guillotine. The punch did the damage. His fight vs Charles Oliveira tapped from a guillotine in less than 3 seconds. To think he's super durable is erroneous, and if guida can't get MJ down.. he will get absolutely outvolumed on the feet. Just another takeaway... I feel MJ would have no problems with Bobby Green. Bobby Green got by guida last fight. People are overthinking MJ because how he gives these fights away.. I'm just not gona overthink it. Easy win for MJ

i dont think people are overthinking it they just go off by what they see. He was also a favourite in all those loses, so how can anyone feel comfortable betting him as another big favourite against a guy who spams takedowns over 3 rounds and has great cardio. Ye he might dominate the first, probably sprawl everything and piece Guida up. But then he has to do it in the second and 3rd and if he gets taken down Guida is a wild man and aggressive with his GNP. He looked frozen against Stevey Ray, like he got PTSD.

 

[Oblivian]

I like that Guida has become more aggressive going for subs too. I think it ends ITD either way.

 

[DonQ94]

His fight vs Jim Miller got stunned bad by a punch. Right into a guillotine. The punch did the damage. His fight vs Charles Oliveira tapped from a guillotine in less than 3 seconds. To think he's super durable is erroneous, and if guida can't get MJ down.. he will get absolutely outvolumed on the feet. Just another takeaway... I feel MJ would have no problems with Bobby Green. Bobby Green got by guida last fight. People are overthinking MJ because how he gives these fights away.. I'm just not gona overthink it. Easy win for MJ

Besides all the would be's and ifs, it's not smart betting unreliable flakes like Michael Johnson Imo. Especially not as a big fave. I think in the long run you have more success with fighters that will fight for your money and where you know what you get.

 

[Sono07]

Volkov looking thick

 

[michi972]

Fereira seems like a good play.
Concerning me Volkov should take it.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Volkov looking thick

put on some muscle. i wonder if this is going to be a detriment against econoreem.

 

[guaton]

thought on marques vs rodriguez? danilo looks ugly as fuck fighting, he's slow and clunky and has faced trash competition but he's got jiu jitsu and a gas tank and stays glued. mike rodriguez is a monstrous puncher but he has a weakness against clinchfucking and he gasses, he even got finished by ed 'piece of shit' herman after the ref called a nutshot when there wasn't.

Edit: i didn't bet on marques. God damnit why do I never trust my reads

 

[chemmy]

Should be a very winnable fight for Rodriguez, but you’ll never catch me laying over 2:1 on him over anyone inside the octagon.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

put on some muscle. i wonder if this is going to be a detriment against econoreem.

He weighed in at 265 against Harris and was visibly bigger.

Obviously that fight didn't make it out of the second, but he seemed to have more pep on his shots.

I think Overeem's chin issues are a tad bit overblown, but over the course of a five round fight against Volkov, the more I think about it, the more he should be able to put away Overeem.

He didn't gas versus Blaydes despite being taken down 14 times, so I highly doubt a little muscle will taint his cardio much -- especially against someone like Overeem who doesn't push a high pace.