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UFC FIGHT NIGHT: REYES VS. PROCHAZKA Offical discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by 2020Tracked, Apr 24, 2021.

  1. longway Purple Belt

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    Giga is gauging his opponent looking for openings, and he does try to set up his opponent in those periods. I don't think his weakness is pressure, as his movement and counter striking is too good to lose to that kind of game plan, and he is a level above Cub in the striking, esp kicks. I think Cub has to wrestle constantly to win, but I've never seen him do that in any of his fights.
     
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  2. Giga tends to wait to counter, so he's inactive for stretches. I could see the judges scoring hard shots from Cub more than crisp counters from Giga.

    I could also see Cub swinging and missing a whole lot, we'll see.
     
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  3. 2020Tracked Green Belt

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    I think Cub has to force pocket exchanges, get inside and make Giga box. Obviously the danger in getting in on Giga is having to get past his kicking range and avoid getting countered on the way in too.

    If Cub can't pressure him back and can't close the distance he's in for a long night of getting kicked to the body and legs. Make it dirty, make it a brawl, keep the pressure on and maybe Cub can land enough and rough Giga up enough that he takes a decision
     
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  4. longway Purple Belt

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    Morales tried that, and he was beaten decisively. If you look at the stats, Giga outstrikes his opponents close to 2 to 1, unless they have a grappling heavy gameplan. That kind of pressure has not worked up to now.
     
  5. HighStakesMMA White Belt

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    I agree with you re: if Reyes was a bigger dog. Tbh I expected the books to list him as a slight favorite. I guess we'll see what Reyes is made of. If he loses this fight suddenly he's an after-thought and probably loses to guys like Glover, Rakic, etc. On the other hand if he wins this I'll tip my cap and view him in a different light.
     
  6. 2020Tracked Green Belt

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    I feel like there are 3 fights on this card with very simular dynamics and could all potentially play on in similar ways - Sanders/Colares, Kamaka/Brown and Benitez/Pearce.

    You have the more well rounded and athletic strikers who are just the better fighters over all taking on opponents with height and reach advantages who all have the gameplan of using their wrestling and grappling to drag their opponents into deep waters after surviving what will probably be a dangerous first round for them.

    Interesting to see how each approach it
     
  7. loller90278 Purple Belt

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    Giga/Cub GTD IMO
     
  8. ExitLUPin K

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    Gigas been training wrestling with Khinch......

     
  9. TrueAscension Brown Belt

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    Just came to say Sadistics is GOAT
     
  10. Post 2 Decision Gold Belt

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    Been a busy week for me and haven't looked into this card too much, some interesting plays off the top I notice:

    Cub Swanson as a dog looks okay, unless he decides to outstrike the striker... which he very well might decide to do.

    Gotta favour Prochazka in the main event. Reyes can definitely find his chin if Jiri comes out like he did vs Volkan again, but Reyes is supremely over ranked - I knew he was going to lose to Jan - the dude lost to Oezdemir (not officially) and knocked out a glass-chinned MIDDLEWEIGHT in Weidman to get a title shot. Had the fight of his life vs Jones, I'll give him that, he won imo, but let's not pretend the Jones that lost to Santos and Reyes is the same Jones of yesteryear. Give me Jiri by KO, and even safer is fight does NOT go the distance.

    Pinheiro (spelling?) looks to be the next in line from the Pretender Series (sorry, I had to) to get too big of a step up right off the bat. Randa Markos has very low fight IQ, but she definitely has the skillset to win the latter 2 rounds on route to a decision here. I'm loving the Markos decision prop.

    Merab likely will out wrestle Staman.

    Strickland likely to finish Jotko in the latter half of the fight.

    I hate to fighter bash, but Luana Carolina is an absolute can. That kneebar by Lipski was an absolute laugh. I've definitely seen Botelho fight, but I can't recall anything about her. If she has any finishing ability whatsoever she wins. If she doesn't, I'm ready for 15 minutes of bottom-of-the-barrel low-level MMA.

    Good luck Sherbros!
     
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  11. Foghorn Leghorn Purple Belt

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    I'm seeing a common theme in here discrediting Reyes' wins, while saying Jiri is gonna wreck em. Jiri may very well wreck him, I think if he's going to win that's how it's going to go down — a violent KO. But if you're going to dismiss Reyes' wins, shouldn't the same be done to Jiri? His last 5 wins:

    -Oezdemir, where he lost the first round getting "rocked" (I'm using that fairly loosely here, I don't think he was hurt terribly bad or something) multiple times in the process
    -35 year old C.B. Dollaway (essentially) career middleweight
    -39 year old journeyman Fabio Maldonado
    -38 year old, multi-fight losing streak and near the end of his career King Mo (who starched him when they met previously when Jiri charged in foolishly, something he claims he's changed after the Oezdemir fight)
    -Brandon Halsey, who had been TKO'd two fights prior in less than 2min by Vinny Magalhaes

    He also had a considerable size advantage on all of these guys, too.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2021
  12. Kazda1 Yellow Belt

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    Completely agree with you on the Pinheiro tip. Agree on Botelho as well, and the kneebar is something I go back and watch every so often to chuckle at.

    I'm starting to get vibes that Loma loses though. Sam Hughes isn't anything super special, but I feel like Hughes losing to Tecia Torres was to be expected. Loma's a great striker, but I'm not sure this is one way traffic like how the Torres fight went. Going off remembrance, Loma seemed to be more of a counterstriker? I just think Hughes had to have learned something in that big step up in competition and likely approaches this knowing how to get in and implement her game.
     
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  13. Post 2 Decision Gold Belt

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    I'm not sure Hughes will win, but she definitely can if she uses her wrestling effectively. I sprinkled a little bit on Hughes decision at +550.

    I think I hit on those lower level WMMA underdogs by decision enough to be making a profit from them solely, or at least run even. The other week Penne hit for instance, and Kish could have easily got the nod in her fight as well. Both were quite decent +money. Kicking myself for not catching that Ruiz/Buys line a while back, that was a big one.
     
  14. Captain Chesapeake Blue Belt

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    Markos dec +240 is value city

    bohtelho is way overpriced.
     
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  15. Card Silver Belt

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    Poliana Botelho (125.5) vs. Luana Carolina (128.5)*

    Gabriel Benitez (150.5)+ vs. Jonathan Pearce (146)

    * Carolina was fined 20 percent of her purse, and the bout will go on as scheduled

    + Benitez was fined 30 percent of his purse, and the bout will go on as scheduled

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    Last edited: Apr 30, 2021
  16. Card Silver Belt

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  17. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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    Luana Carolina missed weight by 2.5 pounds. I noticed she cut her hair, so then I went to her IG and saw her latest video, which is posted above.

    Luana's body looked soft during the weigh-in, which makes me think she had a bad weight cut, which is why she cut her hair that she was growing for a really long time.

    Poliana Botelho wins in Round 3 is +1500.
     
  18. MidgardSerpent Black Belt

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    Ion is a pos, every staredown he tries to scare opponents by suddenly screaming in their face, and now with the clinch pulling. No guy with some pride is going to let some other asshole do that to him (except Artem vs Khabib).
     
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  19. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    Guess she's gotta change her nickname. Big on Botelho here though I think current line is about accurate
     
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  20. Really liking the o1.5 in the ME @ -140
     

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