UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane

[theTKDguy]

I think Biggi Boy is KO or bust but this is Hw anyway. I will say Biggi has some sneaky hooks and has played the hammer and nail which may help him here.

He's definitely ko or bust, just like lewis was. Good chance he gets it, tho. cyril's wb-esque stance makes me second guess, we are talking hws here. Playing gane at that price is dumb imho, dog or pass.

 

[rille31]

Anybody else like Knight here? The wheels kind of fall off Menifield after r1 and Knight should at least have a cardio advantage.

Really like Knight at a pic em, if he wrassles he will tire out menfield.

 

[2020Tracked]

I understand that Rozenstruik has power and he's more tricky than people give him credit for but a bet on him is just a KO or bust play. He's not going to win a decision and obviously has no ground game. Gane on the other hand has shown that he can win where ever the fight goes.

Also Rozenstruik lost the first round to JDS on the official scorecards, he's won one completed round in the UFC and that's round 4 against Overeem.

Certainly he can land the bomb but betting Rozenstruik is nothing but a punt on the dog.

 

[LEMONZEST]

I don't know who wins but for my money I could never pay the juice on Gane. Roz is just too dangerous. Betting Gane would be a heart attack special, as we have seen Roz carries his power through the fight.

I don't mind Roz's style of inactivity. He doesn't really throw strikes unless he thinks they are going to land. Fun fight.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I understand that Rozenstruik has power and he's more tricky than people give him credit for but a bet on him is just a KO or bust play. He's not going to win a decision and obviously has no ground game. Gane on the other hand has shown that he can win where ever the fight goes.

Also Rozenstruik lost the first round to JDS on the official scorecards, he's won one completed round in the UFC and that's round 4 against Overeem.

Certainly he can land the bomb but betting Rozenstruik is nothing but a punt on the dog.

I remember betting Rozenstriuk against JDS and being pissed after round 1 that he will fuck up my bet.
Luckily he catched his chin but I doubt he can do that to Gane who is very mobile

 

[2020Tracked]

I remember betting Rozenstriuk against JDS and being pissed after round 1 that he will fuck up my bet.
Luckily he catched his chin but I doubt he can do that to Gane who is very mobile

Yeah I bet Rozenstruik there too, a lot of people backed JDS I remember.

 

[MikeK1989]

He's definitely ko or bust, just like lewis was. Good chance he gets it, tho. cyril's wb-esque stance makes me second guess, we are talking hws here. Playing gane at that price is dumb imho, dog or pass.

The line implies Gane wins what.. 73% of the time? You think thats too wide to bet? I'd say thats pretty spot on.

Rozen KOs him 25% of the time..

 

[Sono07]

He's definitely ko or bust, just like lewis was. Good chance he gets it, tho. cyril's wb-esque stance makes me second guess, we are talking hws here. Playing gane at that price is dumb imho, dog or pass.

Yeah I'm trying not to make the same mistake as last weekend. Skill for skill in any other division I'd take Gane all day, but this is HW where technique gets trumped with one punch. Even still I'd say the bookies slept on Lewis. Blaydes was getting tired already in r2 and I think having his first TD stuffed put him in a sort of panic mode.

Great point about Gane's stance, it really does remind me of Thompson's karate style. I liked Gane alot more when this was a 3 round fight though. I love his movement but I don't see him bouncing around like that for a full 5 rounds and it is a big part of his defense. Small cage probably benefits Biggi more. Gane definitely drops his hands enough to leave Biggi some openings too. This could look similar to Pettis vs Thompson.

I'll probably still play something on Gane -5 1/2 though, should be a much better price and whoever wins I think does it decisively. He has way more ways to win and I think he can stifle Biggi's offense alot like Overeem did. That and it will be the easiest hedge especially live. Jairzinho will probably be +1000 or better if he gets out struck for a few rounds. Hopefully I don't have to return my ticket to the Bon Gamin hype train after this weekend.

 

[Sono07]

Glover nearly KOing Krylov on the feet makes me think Ankalaev's price is about right. Teixeira is no slouch but he isn't known for his speed. Krylov doesn't have the best striking or cardio. I don't see him controlling Ankalaev the same as he did Walker either. I think Nikita will get caught over extending on his punches and probably slept with a hard counter.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I think gane needs to wrestle. I don’t think playing around with rozenstruik for 5 rounds is a good idea. He will get countered and rozenstruik has melted just about everybody he’s touched

very dangerous fight for him. All it takes is one shot. No way I’d lay over -200 on him

Derrick Lewis has explosiveness and power but rozenstruik has hand speed and power and much better technique which is even more dangerous

I’m going to be playing him in some form. I was hopiing his ko line would be better

 

[theTKDguy]

Already placed my bets. I have rivera and knight straight, and ankalaev + hernandez, rivera + gane v jair o1.5 parlays (plus a fun parlay with all of them). I think the rivera fight goes the same as the first, knight outhustles alonso and ankalaev and hernandez roll. Main event should go past 2 rounds at least either way imo, expect gane to look great and rack up points until he gets caught (or doesn't lol). Bigi takes his time.

Also took the italian dream @1.68. Till is a good matchup for him.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Ramazan in to face Oliveira.

First strong lean in a while, I don't have time to write up an analysis right now, but bare bones are that Ramazan is a fighter with incredible cardio that pushes the pace hard.

Oliveira tends to fade, I was one of the few on here big on Shavkat vs Cowboy in his last fight, and I will be fading him again.

Especially if Ramazan is plus money, going to play him big.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Really like Knight at a pic em, if he wrassles he will tire out menfield.

Menifield has more ways to win, he can defo ko knight or win with significant strikes. His tdd is around 80% and knight is behind on reach height and wrestling background. Menifield also played college ball. His tackle defense I believe will help his tdd . I feel Menifield is a lock as a likely winner at around 66% or higher chance to win.

 

[svmr_db]

Ramazan in to face Oliveira.

First strong lean in a while, I don't have time to write up an analysis right now, but bare bones are that Ramazan is a fighter with incredible cardio that pushes the pace hard.

Oliveira tends to fade, I was one of the few on here big on Shavkat vs Cowboy in his last fight, and I will be fading him again.

Especially if Ramazan is plus money, going to play him big.

What's your take on Ramazan's performance on the contender series? Does it give you any pause? A lot of people weren't too impressed.

 

[Broe.]

What's your take on Ramazan's performance on the contender series? Does it give you any pause? A lot of people weren't too impressed.

He sucked balls vs williams, seemed rather slow and hittable. He also only fought two other people after the williams' fight. Both bums. I would be very careful betting Ramazan here especially as the favourite. Olivieira is a way better fighter than Williams.

 

[svmr_db]

 

[Sono07]

Anybody else digging the old school boxing theme?

 

[rille31]

Menifield has more ways to win, he can defo ko knight or win with significant strikes. His tdd is around 80% and knight is behind on reach height and wrestling background. Menifield also played college ball. His tackle defense I believe will help his tdd . I feel Menifield is a lock as a likely winner at around 66% or higher chance to win.

I have a hard time seing Menfield winning a decision against a wrestler, if he wins it's propably a round 1/2 ko/tko.
Knight could sub or gnp to a tko.
He could also win a decision or catch him when he tires.

 

[bendoman]

Anyone have thoughts on Ankalaev ITD at -137?

 

[Stat_Collector]

I have a hard time seing Menfield winning a decision against a wrestler, if he wins it's propably a round 1/2 ko/tko.
Knight could sub or gnp to a tko.
He could also win a decision or catch him when he tires.

Don't think knight ever wrestled , he is an mma grappler ,Devin Clark was ncaaj college wrestler and Alonso stuffed 8 of his 9 takedown attempts . Knight has 0 subs if I remember correctly and his last opponent a striker who smaller than manifield lasted to the 3rd ,too unlikely. His only method is a lay n pray if he gets the TD or clinch Ctrl in the cage. But Menifield has decent cage Ctrl in the clinch. Knight was ko fast vs that African prospect, who is a good striker but Knight should have gone past 2 round if he was decent, his standup is very green. I can't really see him winning this, he can't muscle his way through someone as strong as him.