UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane

[Kazda1]

Anybody else feel like a lot of these cards recently are just greasy 50/50 fights? I can't determine a ptv for menifield/ knight, silva/de la rosa, or grishin/ Jacoby.

Jacoby looks to throw more but for some reason he's just a stiff looking unathletic goofy looking dude to me. I think grishin is better but his volume and what appears to be lack of cardio is concerning.

I like Silva over de la rosa, but silva is no real striker. Certainly not in the breadth of Araujo who kept it on the feet against DLR. On top of that, she's too willing to go to the ground. Maybe DLR is the right side after all, I just don't trust some armbar from guard situation from happening.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Anybody else feel like a lot of these cards recently are just greasy 50/50 fights? I can't determine a ptv for menifield/ knight, silva/de la rosa, or grishin/ Jacoby.

Jacoby looks to throw more but for some reason he's just a stiff looking unathletic goofy looking dude to me. I think grishin is better but his volume and what appears to be lack of cardio is concerning.

I like Silva over de la rosa, but silva is no real striker. Certainly not in the breadth of Araujo who kept it on the feet against DLR. On top of that, she's too willing to go to the ground. Maybe DLR is the right side after all, I just don't trust some armbar from guard situation from happening.

Knight should be the favorite, he is only one fight into the UFC and a shorter LHW so he is not getting respect from oddsmakers, but he proved himself in his one fight to be way more well rounded than Alonzo has shown himself to be in his four UFC fights.

I don't think Knight is headed for the rankings but he could be a LHW prelim mainstay for the next few years. Solid cardio, very physically strong, solid takedowns, solid chin, and heavy hands. He is a good all around fighter but a master of nothing

Menifield has heavier hands but Knight is probably going to take him down, tire him out, and get a GNP TKO stoppage.

 

[bendoman]

Is there any value on Moises SUB at +600?

 

[Sono07]

it was the last fight in her contract, she tapped really fast and this is a nice and easy way to lose a fight without it looking too dodgy. Considering her past with smuggling cocaine seems extremely likely she just threw this fight for a nice payday.

That would be pretty funny. Maybe she just realized the health insurance was about to run out and didn't want to take a risk.

Anyway for anyone on De La Rosa here it seems like she is taking her camp more seriously. Looks like she left the family in Texas to train with Elevation Fight Team in Denver.

 

[Sono07]

Why was Alexis Davis out so long, injury, USADA or did she retire? Also why is the fight at 135lbs? They're both 125lbsers

Looks like Davis had some sort of injury last year. No idea about the weight class.
This was from last March.

 

[Kazda1]

That would be pretty funny. Maybe she just realized the health insurance was about to run out and didn't want to take a risk.

Anyway for anyone on De La Rosa here it seems like she is taking her camp more seriously. Looks like she left the family in Texas to train with Elevation Fight Team in Denver.

I think that just about pushes me to the DLR side. Silva's striking is overrated outside of leg kicks and DLR is willing to sit down more on her strikes. She's got to mix up her targets and not get caught in a submission somewhere on the ground.

On another note, Alexis Davis is in crazy shape like never seen before. Gone is the muffin top. She's got to realize at this point that she's been given fights that technically she's good enough to win but has to stop playing her opponents game of fighting from the outside. If she rushes into the clinch and gets trip takedowns, her top control is enough to win rounds.

 

[Danis_champ]

Is there any value on Moises SUB at +600?

Yes and no. Depends. If you think Moises will straight up win this fight then yes I say there is value otherwise not so.

I think Gane submission at +500 or something has more value. Rozen is kind of fish on the ground and Gane likes to hunt for sub's.

 

[Sono07]

Menifield is out.

 

[Kazda1]

Menifield is out.

I've lived in Vegas for exactly one month so far and have yet to officially place a bet yet at a book for this reason. Every card, people getting pulled left and right.

 

[Sono07]

I've lived in Vegas for exactly one month so far and have yet to officially place a bet yet at a book for this reason. Every card, people getting pulled left and right.

Yeah I like to wait until after weigh ins for alot of my bets. I miss out on some good early odds but you never know how some fighters will show up if at all. Good examples from last week are Gordon and Ketlen. Gordon looked great like he just stopped his cut early and Ketlen looked like crap and performed about the same despite being a decent size favorite.

 

[Casual Cro Cop]

Hate being the guy to keep bringing this up but............does this seem like another line error? Rivera being the outright favorite but having such a disproportionate line on the decision prop seems wrong. Especially considering he hasn't won a fight by anything other than decision since Marcus Brimage in 2015 (and even that was an outlier) .

 

[t6p]

Hate being the guy to keep bringing this up but............does this seem like another line error? Rivera being the outright favorite but having such a disproportionate line on the decision prop seems wrong. Especially considering he hasn't won a fight by anything other than decision since Marcus Brimage in 2015 (and even that was an outlier) .

View attachment 836229

Yes, the lines are flipped.

 

[The Hooligan]

What do you guys think about the Alex Oliveira vs Ramazan Kuramagomedov fight? Oliveira coming off a loss against
Shavkat Rakmonov, this undefeated guy from Kazakhstan, but I just feel like Kuramagomedov is going to experience a level change fighting a veteran UFC fighter with 11 wins, he's only 33 as well for some reason I thought he was older. I don't know a ton about Kuramagomedov except that he won split decision is his UFC contender series fight.

 

[Stat_Collector]

What do you guys think about the Alex Oliveira vs Ramazan Kuramagomedov fight? Oliveira coming off a loss against
Shavkat Rakmonov, this undefeated guy from Kazakhstan, but I just feel like Kuramagomedov is going to experience a level change fighting a veteran UFC fighter with 11 wins, he's only 33 as well for some reason I thought he was older. I don't know a ton about Kuramagomedov except that he won split decision is his UFC contender series fight.

In these scenarios its kind of a coin flip; Shavkat Rakmonov is inexperience and has weak opposition wins and poor strking defense , Alex has very low SAPM (strikes absorb per minute) as the fight goes to the later rounds it favors Alex winning on points.

But alex is vulnerable to submissions, has solid wrestling and scrambles, I see it as 50 50
In these scenarios I'll pick Alex the veteran and more proven fighter, but because its 50/50 I'm going to create a parlay without him in it.
As for Shavkat I'm not putting him in any of my parlays , the risk is not worth the reward, poor defense, poor opposition in his last three fights and being only 25 years old
5 years younger than the average winning age of 30 years old. Guys under 25 in the last 11 fights went 4-6 vs older fighters in their late 20s and early 30s.
So I got alex on some parlays and 0 for Shavkat, he could win but he has a lot to prove going against him.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Got to think the line is wide on Davis vs mazo.
Mazo moving up to 135 against a stronger more experienced girl who is good on the ground.

If I’m Davis I’m drilling catching kicks. Mazo can’t help herself; she uses them to control range and I think she’s going to get taken down potentially off her kicks and spend extended periods of time on her back.

 

[Kazda1]

Got to think the line is wide on Davis vs mazo.
Mazo moving up to 135 against a stronger more experienced girl who is good on the ground.

If I’m Davis I’m drilling catching kicks. Mazo can’t help herself; she uses them to control range and I think she’s going to get taken down potentially off her kicks and spend extended periods of time on her back.

I thought for sure this fight was taking place at 125. If that's a mistake on my part, Davis looks even better for 135.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Yoder dec +500 is so off

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I thought for sure this fight was taking place at 125. If that's a mistake on my part, Davis looks even better for 135.

She had shoulder surgery to repair a rotator cuff. She said it was cause her to drop her hand in fights and that she feels reinvigorated now especially not cutting to 135

 

[PuertoRican]

I've lived in Vegas for exactly one month so far and have yet to officially place a bet yet at a book for this reason. Every card, people getting pulled left and right.

I'll be watching the fights this weekend at the Circa sportsbook.

Roll through if you want to meet-up. I'll be there with a couple of other people.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

I feel like there's value on Croom @ +175, missed out on him @ +200.

Waiting to make all of my official plays until the weigh ins.