UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane

What are your guys thoughts on the over 1.5 rounds at -155 in the Ankalev/Krylov fight? Krylov has a good chin and should make it that far at least no?
Tough to say, Ion had a decent chin but in 2 fights combined he didn't even survive a full round. Dalcha made it to r3 but Ankalaev wrestled him for all of r2, Paul Craig not only survived late but pulled of a hail mary win.

I could see Magomed getting a finish in late r1 or r2. I think Krylov will try to wrestle like he did against Walker. I doubt it works but he could run the clock up trying to get control time. I think Krylov gets his grappling countered and ends up a sitting duck for a straight left or head kick. Ankalaev is patient though I don't see him forcing a finish either, I wouldn't feel great about the under or over.
 
This is truly bizarre and a terrible betting strategy.
I don't think you understand how parlays work. When you have 50/50 type fights having an alternative parlay with the opposite results on specific fights increases your chances.
Why would I bank all my parlays on one fighter? their fights that are obvious , this isnt one of them, at the very least a 9 man parlay with 20 bucks can net me 15k , i like the low risk for high rewards. I've come closest to 100k with 7 of 9 picks, you don't get close unless you play both sides. I think you are mistaking multiple single bets with parlay.
If you can elaborate why you think so?
 
Cowboy Oliveira fight is scratched. Hopefully they push the start time back an hour now.
 
You’re right. Bobby Green is a way better fighter than Hill. She probably beats Yoder but imagine betting a 12-9 fighter with little finishing ability at -400 lol.
Yoder is much worse with a worse record at 8-6 while fighting worse opponents.

Plus, this is a rematch that Hill already won. -400 is pretty wild for MMA, but WMMA is a different story where outside of a very select few women there is no puncher's chance lol
 
Some props I'm on

Davis via decision +250
Mazo was looking bad vs Kish until her 3rd round head kick (leading to a sub finish) landed. Think Davis is too experienced to get caught by something like that and will grind this girl out fairly easily.

Caceres ITD at +350
I don't see this one going to the cards, Croom can definitely catch a finish here but I think Caceres is a lot better than people give him credit for.

I think the best way to go about the main event is Gane by sub or decision at +260 with a Rozenstruik KO or Decision hedge at +300 (the KO line is +300 so I'm getting the decision for free lol)
Of course this leaves out a Gane KO, which is possible, but I think Rozenstruik is fairly durable. Anyone can visit the shadow realm opposite Ngannou...

Took a flyer on Grishin round 3 at +1800
Jacoby fades hard so really I'm just fading him. On the flip side, I like Grishin's durability so Jacoby by decision at +210 seems like great value.
 
Maxim Grishin (210.5)* vs. Dustin Jacoby (204.5)
*Grishin missed light heavyweight limit by 4.5 pounds

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You’re right. Bobby Green is a way better fighter than Hill. She probably beats Yoder but imagine betting a 12-9 fighter with little finishing ability at -400 lol.

Since when does finishing ability have anything to do with correlation with an odds price reflection? At the end of the day a win is a win, right?
 
Anyone with a strong lean on Cachero/Lawrence?
 
I don't think you understand how parlays work. When you have 50/50 type fights having an alternative parlay with the opposite results on specific fights increases your chances.
Why would I bank all my parlays on one fighter? their fights that are obvious , this isnt one of them, at the very least a 9 man parlay with 20 bucks can net me 15k , i like the low risk for high rewards. I've come closest to 100k with 7 of 9 picks, you don't get close unless you play both sides. I think you are mistaking multiple single bets with parlay.
If you can elaborate why you think so?
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