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UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by BigSteve, Feb 20, 2021.

  1. StewDogg11 Brown Belt

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    So how much did getting “close” on your Hail Mary parlay win you? Also how much money did you flush down the drain on your 9 fight parlay that would’ve netted you $100,000?
     
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  2. StewDogg11 Brown Belt

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    Leaves her open to losing dodgy decisions.
     
  3. OuterDrake Orange Belt

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    100 for the chance to win 99k via bovada. on majority times I get 70-80%

    I play two big parlays of 100 a piece and 4 20$ parlays with groups 5-6 to win 5-14 k

    And a final 4 man parlay in attempt to win my play money back around 20 for 300.usually favorties.

    This strategy worked for me draft kings , its isolating the 50/50 from the guarantees, I have fighters who are in all my parlays and others who I have split because of their underdog odds only, even if they only have a 33% chance if they are 200+ or more. That's how you get those derick lewis underdogs predictions, you have to take risk with underdogs.

    Yes I got 0 , but when your trying to hit big you just have to take your licks until chance arrives, by my numbers I should eventually land atleast 3x this year. It seems inevitable.

    On average i win my money back with the final 4 favorites.
     
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  4. StewDogg11 Brown Belt

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    No it’s certainly not inevitable for you to hit a huge parlay. Also just wait til that -600 “lock” you put in every parlay loses as there are absolutely no guarantees in MMA as you like to say.

    Also by the time you do hit one it may not even be enough to get you back to even lol. But by all means do you I guarantee the bookies absolutely love you.
     
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  5. OuterDrake Orange Belt

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    I never play those heavy favorites , Unless its Amanda Nunes vs Paige Van zan or something. And most of my picks aren't at random, I spend 4 - 8 hours of research and stat collection to pick a winner and go by probability. And yes i have won before on draftkings, I'm up at least 30K in mma betting. I don't care that much about losses, I get better with each event and upgrade my data sheets with new information, I base decisions on a number of factors like methods, opponent ratings , experience, and training camps.

    When you play methodical and smart eventually it pays off.
     
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  6. StewDogg11 Brown Belt

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    When would Amanda Nunes ever have fought a 115 pound Paige Van Zant? Are you sure you actually do as much research as you say you do?
     
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  7. OuterDrake Orange Belt

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    its an exaggeration . I'm just pulling a random name from wmma. I assure you i do more than you.
     
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  8. StewDogg11 Brown Belt

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    I would love to see your results. Because your parlays you posted from the previous two cards both didn’t come close. Also it’s interesting you said you never play big favorites yet you played Curtis Blaydes lmao.
     
  9. Kazda1 Yellow Belt

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    But a win is a win. You must be the type to get upset when you cash a +200 underdog when they win by majority decision. Who cares how they cash?
     
  10. StewDogg11 Brown Belt

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    Lol not all. It was simply one more reason I wouldn’t dare play her at -400 is because she finishes fights at a <25% clip. When you’re unable to finish fights or dominate fights in ones that do go to the scorecards it makes for close decisions that sometimes don’t go your way as we saw in the Waterson fight. The last thing I want to be doing is sweating the decision when playing a -400 favorite.
     
  11. BigSteve Green Belt

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    Lot more variety in his strikes too, works the body a lot with spinning kicks, knees in clinch, ellbows. Cachero reminds me a lot of Natividad. Wide stances, always sitting on his punches and prefers to swing in the pocket
     
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  12. Kazda1 Yellow Belt

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    Part of it has to be a situational play. In this case, I'm sorry - Yoder isn't on the same level. I'm not really sure what there's to sweat about. Joanna's got about a 20% finish rate by your logic, but the difference is the matchup right? No one's above being faded just because they dominate fights on the scorecards. This is just a favorable matchup for Hill. Hindsight is always 20/20 but by your logic we had no reason to sweat Joanna/ Namajunas 1 because of Joanna's dominance in decision based fights. This situation with Hill isnt that one.
     
  13. StewDogg11 Brown Belt

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    But Joanna is twice the fighter Hill is. It’s one of the many reasons I wouldn’t touch Hill at -400 not the only one as you keep trying to imply. I’ll gladly eat my words if Hill comes out and puts on a flawless performance that justifies her -400 price tag.
     
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  14. Invictis Brown Belt

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    Okay then.

    So I'll be playing next week's card pretty big, this week I'm just going to take a bunch of fucking edibles and hope that these fights deliver.

    I'm just playing a bunch of sides here for value.

    Yoder dec +500, Davis +200, Rivera -150(using him as parlay fodder), Kroom +176, and Rozenstruik +235.

    Rivera/Magomed parlay is my biggest play, but the aforementioned plays are all at least $50.

    I have some hail mary parlays as well, but only $100 worth.

    I need to tape Moises more. I've never been big on Hernandez, and money is coming in on Alex.

    Betting parlays long term isn't very profitable, especially big ones, but to each their own.
     
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  15. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Probably lowest stake that I've had in a while. Tough card to bet. I mainly play singles and then have a few doubles on favorites that I'm confident in, but this is pretty much all singles. Like someone else said, a lot of close to 50/50 fights. It seems like with the huge roster that there are less reliable fighters each card.
     
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  16. Captain Chesapeake Blue Belt

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    After taping I think Hernandez is going to be too fast for him. Also don’t like how Moises fades a bit after heavy grappling exchanges.

    Im considering playing the under 2.5 at +140
     
  17. Vir_Ars Green Belt

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    but, what are you playing then?
     
  18. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Pretty much all dogs besides on the main and co-main. I like both of those ITD and don't think they are priced too high.
     
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  19. Kazda1 Yellow Belt

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    I've kind of felt this way for a while now. Nothing really feels as stable as it used to be with some of the talent. Are fighters getting better as a whole or is the ufc letting in a lot of less talented people to fill cards with covid etc?
     
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  20. Kazda1 Yellow Belt

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    I'm starting to get cold feet about alexis Davis. Was that shoulder injury the real reason she never kept her hands up to defend lol?

    She's just so clunky. I just need her to do two things. Guard her face and get in on the body lock /control game.
     

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