UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai

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Short Notice:
- Laureano Staropoli (in for Alessio Di Chirico 1 win) vs. Roman Dolidze (was +106)

Fight camps:
- Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Augusto Sakai (6 weeks)
- Walt Harris vs. Marcin Tybura (8+ weeks)
- Roman Dolidze vs. Laureano Staropoli (Dolidze had 8+ weeks) - Staropoli 1 week notice
- Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Miguel Baeza (6 weeks)
- Tom Breese vs. Antonio Arroyo (6 weeks)
- Makwan Amirkhani vs. Nate Landwehr (5 weeks)
- Tanner Boser vs. Ilir Latifi (8+ weeks)
- Alan Patrick vs. Mason Jones (8+ weeks)
- Manon Fiorot vs. Maryna Moroz (8+ weeks)
- Amanda Ribas vs. Angela Hill - (8 weeks) was rescheduled Ribas had COVID
- Youssef Zalal vs. Sean Woodson (8+ weeks)
- Montana De La Rosa vs. Ariane Lipski (8+ weeks)
- Dusko Todorovic vs. Maki Pitolo (8+ weeks)
- Claudio Puelles vs. Jordan Leavitt (8 weeks)
 
Don't like that Maki is out,he was a solid dog considering that he can hit and the way Dusko was fighting with hands down his last fight.I like Baeza considering how shot Ponzi was looking his last fight,need to tape more
 
This is a great card with so many undervalued dogs, got to get them early.

Zalal and Maryna at plus odds, what!?
 
Just bet Boser -190. Latifi undersized at HW, plus Boser's footwork and speed edge likely makes it tough for Ilir to close distance if he wants to wrestle. And Ilir's gas tank sucks.

Boser wins this 75% of the time, maybe more.
 
I think Moroz wins with a wrestling heavy gameplan, Manon should have the edge on the feet, the chick hits like a man,
 
Leavitt-KO1
Firot-KO2
Breese-Dec
De La rosa-Dec
Patrick-Dec
Zalal-Dec
Trinaldo-Dec
Ribas-Dec
Pnzihibio-KO2
Latifi-Dec
Tybura-Dec
Rosenstruck-KO3
 
mkess101 said:
Just bet Boser -190. Latifi undersized at HW, plus Boser's footwork and speed edge likely makes it tough for Ilir to close distance if he wants to wrestle. And Ilir's gas tank sucks.

Boser wins this 75% of the time, maybe more.
Click to expand...

I'm only replying to this because I like and respect you so much, but this analysis is shallow and lazy.

To begin with, Latifi's gas tank was noticeably better at heavyweight in his last fight against Derrick Lewis (one he was very close to winning, with Lewis stealing it in the final minute of the contest), since he didn't have to cut weight and heavyweights fight at a slower pace, anyways. Hell, a major reason he moved back up to heavyweight was to improve his cardio, and it was very noticeable against Lewis.

Secondly, Boser's "speed edge", if it exists, doesn't count for much, considering he was out-pointed by the slow, brain-damaged Andrei Arlovski.

I haven't fully taped the fight yet, but I can't imagine Boser at -190 being value, unless you have some inside knowledge that Latifi has drastically declined since his last outing. Boser's safe, circling, pot-shotting style just isn't one built to take advantage of Latifi's weaknesses.

Latifi can defend solidly enough, and will score with leg kicks, and possibly the odd overhand right and left hook (from southpaw, amusingly enough, perhaps confusing Boser) from time to time, and that's if we think Boser can avoid any and all takedowns. It has the makings of an even striking affair, with Boser probably landing more total strikes, but Latifi connecting on the harder ones.

And Boser's safe, defensive style won't especially stress Latifi's cardio tank, which is exactly what older fighters love, being able to fight at their own pace. Just ask Andrei Arlovski!
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
I'm only replying to this because I like and respect you so much, but this analysis is shallow and lazy.

To begin with, Latifi's gas tank was noticeably better at heavyweight in his last fight against Derrick Lewis (one he was very close to winning, with Lewis stealing it in the final minute of the contest), since he didn't have to cut weight and heavyweights fight at a slower pace, anyways. Hell, a major reason he moved back up to heavyweight was to improve his cardio, and it was very noticeable against Lewis.

Secondly, Boser's "speed edge", if it exists, doesn't count for much, considering he was out-pointed by the slow, brain-damaged Andrei Arlovski.

I haven't fully taped the fight yet, but I can't imagine Boser at -190 being value, unless you have some inside knowledge that Latifi has drastically declined since his last outing. Boser's safe, circling, pot-shotting style just isn't one built to take advantage of Latifi's weaknesses.

Latifi can defend solidly enough, and will score with leg kicks, and possibly the odd overhand right and left hook (from southpaw, amusingly enough, perhaps confusing Boser) from time to time, and that's if we think Boser can avoid any and all takedowns. It has the makings of an even striking affair, with Boser probably landing more total strikes, but Latifi connecting on the harder ones.

And Boser's safe, defensive style won't especially stress Latifi's cardio tank, which is exactly what older fighters love, being able to fight at their own pace. Just ask Andrei Arlovski!
Click to expand...

That's fair about Latifi at HW, maybe some improvement of his gas tank. But he also looked noticeably slower to me than he ever did at 205. And that was against Lewis who's if course powerful as hell but has no quickness.

Latifi also seems to become more and more predictable as fights go on. His entries are telegraphed, both to land strikes and to attempt TD's. His leg kicks are okay yeah, but him being so short puts him at a massive disadvantage in an outside striking match with a guy like Boser imo. Maybe...maybe Latifi can get some wrestling going but being undersized at HW hurts his chances there too. I tend to doubt he has much success with it and he's taking a big chance trying because that could actually really tax his gas tank.

Boser's performance vs AA is concerning a bit but man I swear Arlovski must cast some sort of spell on these younger guys that makes them fight at his "glorified sparring match" pace. How many times have we seen it over the past few years? So I will not put TOO much stock in how Boser looked there. It matters...I just don't know how much.

I don't think Boser is a world beater by an stretch but Latifi to me is a guy who couldn't really get much done at 205 so just said "Well guess I'll try HW". A decent performance vs a good HW like Lewis is something I guess, but it's hard to ever know how much Lewis cares going into any fight.

If I'm wrong...won't be the first time (or the last!) But I think Boser gets it done and maybe even makes it look easy.
 
UFC Vegas 28,
Saturday, June 5, 2021

#UFCVegas28

parlay +308

Tanner Boser -225
Tom Breese -230

Jordan Leavitt -230 "The Monkey King"
Mason Jones -300 "Dragon"





2019 Tanner Boser article:

Unlike most heavyweights, Tanner Boser doesn’t have the explosiveness nor the knockout power. What Boser does have is solid cardio, which is rare in most heavyweights. Boser likes to keep the fight upright and his takedown defense has held up for the most part of his career. His best weapon is his leg kicks, and when he decides to commit to it, he has landed so many that he has a few stoppages strictly due to leg kicks. Boser also does a nice job throwing his hands after his kicks. What he does lack is aggression as he is a point-fighter, picking his shots which has given him the label of “boring.” Despite his style, he’s only lost to good fighters and has done enough to deserve this opportunity. Boser isn’t too fast and his striking defense isn’t up to par and that allows more explosive guys to tee off on him. With good takedown defense, the times he’s winded up on his back he didn’t have much at all to offer. He’s been in danger quite a few times but has shown toughness, only getting finished once in his career. Boser is good but against an explosive striker, he will struggle. Boser also allows opponents to back him into the cage quite easily and that’s a concern going forward.

2021 Mason Jones article:

Mason Jones is a scrapper, an in-your-face volume puncher. He is a gritty fighter who loves to fight in close quarters with dirty boxing. Jones is so good in the clinch digging at the body, throwing short strikes, nasty elbows, and fight-ending knees. Jones mixes it up better than anyone in the clinch as he will just make his opponents’ lives very difficult in close range. “The Dragon” has an excellent jab usually doubling up and following with combinations. Jones does a fantastic job keeping busy with combinations. He will go body-head often while throwing a lot of leg kicks in combinations. He’s always throwing something different and always coming forward with constant pressure. Jones does slow down but his output and work rate stay progressive. Mason Jones is a solid wrestler as well and when he mixes that in with his striking, it’s when he’s at his best. He’s shown to do well timing his level changes and getting takedowns trapping a leg and shifting his hips for the takedown. Jones brings vicious ground and pound to the table when on top landing a lot of elbows. Sometimes he’s submission before position, but his jiu-jitsu is overlooked. Jones is tough as nails but can be too tough for his own good. Jones has no issue eating shots to give some of his own which is why he always wears damage. So far, his chin has held up but still needs to move his head more. Overall, Jones is a solid fighter and someone the UFC brass will love having on their roster.
  • Striking: A
  • Kickboxing: A-
  • Clinch: A+
  • Wrestling: B
  • Grappling: B
  • Striking Defense: C+
  • Takedown Defense: C+
  • Cardio: B-
  • Biggest Strength: Output/Volume
  • Biggest Weakness: Striking defense
 
mkess101 said:
That's fair about Latifi at HW, maybe some improvement of his gas tank. But he also looked noticeably slower to me than he ever did at 205. And that was against Lewis who's if course powerful as hell but has no quickness.

Latifi also seems to become more and more predictable as fights go on. His entries are telegraphed, both to land strikes and to attempt TD's. His leg kicks are okay yeah, but him being so short puts him at a massive disadvantage in an outside striking match with a guy like Boser imo. Maybe...maybe Latifi can get some wrestling going but being undersized at HW hurts his chances there too. I tend to doubt he has much success with it and he's taking a big chance trying because that could actually really tax his gas tank.

Boser's performance vs AA is concerning a bit but man I swear Arlovski must cast some sort of spell on these younger guys that makes them fight at his "glorified sparring match" pace. How many times have we seen it over the past few years? So I will not put TOO much stock in how Boser looked there. It matters...I just don't know how much.

I don't think Boser is a world beater by an stretch but Latifi to me is a guy who couldn't really get much done at 205 so just said "Well guess I'll try HW". A decent performance vs a good HW like Lewis is something I guess, but it's hard to ever know how much Lewis cares going into any fight.

If I'm wrong...won't be the first time (or the last!) But I think Boser gets it done and maybe even makes it look easy.
Click to expand...
Boser is a risky bet not for the striking factor but because his grappling is shit.



He could not scramble once, not even attempted.
 
Quick line flip on dolidze vs starapoli

starapolis Tdd is a bit of an unknown at this point and dolidze has bad fight iq
 
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