UFC Fight Night - Sandhagen vs Dillashaw- Offical discussion

[Naught2Sixty]

Man this thread has been exhausting to catch up on.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Heinisch is my biggest play on this card.

O2.5 in that fight is a good parlay piece too.

Eubanks should win relatively easily, but I don't like her -400 price tag. +150 ITD is a better play.

Cory probably puts TJ out, I think I'm going to play Dillishaw +175/Cory KO +160.

If this fight goes to decision, I think TJ wins. I see him throwing a few leg kicks, some jabs, and taking Sandhagen down and just laying on top of him.

But there's a good chance that in one of the later rounds, Cory catches him in the beginning of the round during an entry and puts him out.

 

[Bakayoko]

Heinisch is my biggest play on this card.

O2.5 in that fight is a good parlay piece too.

Eubanks should win relatively easily, but I don't like her -400 price tag. +150 ITD is a better play.

Cory probably puts TJ out, I think I'm going to play Dillishaw +175/Cory KO +160.

If this fight goes to decision, I think TJ wins. I see him throwing a few leg kicks, some jabs, and taking Sandhagen down and just laying on top of him.

But there's a good chance that in one of the later rounds, Cory catches him in the beginning of the round during an entry and puts him out.

Over 1,5 and 2,5 are good bets in the ME,the more I thought about it,the better it seemed.Two tehnical bantams,those fights usually last longer.Probably checking and figuering each other at the begining.TJ may be more cautious than usual and thus harder too KO and if he gets Cory down that gonna lose some time to. O 2,5 at 2,00 is a solid bet.

 

[Boxing Expert 101]

OK that just makes them weirdos but you still have third party tracked results and statistics that let you factually know if they're good or not and what level they're on.

Those weirdos do it because they charge people money for their picks, the better ROI the more buyers, which is hilarious and just tasteless when you are misleading potential buyers with your numbers.

You don’t even charge for your picks so I believe your numbers and ROI, what reason do you have to lie?

I also track my stuff as well on a spreadsheet, but only for personal reasons.

I could tell you my ROI is sitting at 21.6% but hey I could be making it up too

 

[mkess101]

Yea in my opinion Gall has 0 decent wins, as I don't consider Sullivan, Salim or Sage UFC lvl. I will be a lil nervous in that first round before Gall gasses as he will be throwing like a wild man, and Williams is hittable, even though he does have an insane chin. But over the 3 rounds Gall will have keep spamming takedowns, and he doesn't have the cardio to do it

Gall's cardio really only looked bad vs Diego and that was due to him having kidney failure before the fight. He was hospitalized for like a week after that fight because of it.

Even in his losses to Brown and Perry it really wasn't cardio that was his issue. It looked like he was just too content to play guard vs Brown, and too weak physically to get out from underneath Perry. The Perry fight was super bizarre because Gall actually seemed to get the better of it standing while Perry dominated the grappling.

I still think Williams is the far slicker striker and should get the better of the exchanges. Gall is tough as hell though and willing to be in a firefight. He's also a sub threat if he gets to a good position.

Fight is a hard pass imo.

 

[mkess101]

I am well aware of that Diego situation.

Regardless, Gall noticeably slowed down in the Perry and the Salim fight. Perry fight was like halfway through the second. He just couldn't handle the pressure of Perry and seemed to flinch and run away from punches. I think it might just be the nerves or how he handles himself in there rather than cardio. He doesn't like getting punched either. I was telling people Perry would ragdoll Gall on the ground. It seems like every time he fights people are under this impression that if he gets you to the ground it's over lol.

Salim was a super low-level sloppy fight. Not UFC lvl at all. He has Salims back multiple times and would just hold on, struggle to get hooks in or get reversed.

Anyway im done talking about that jobber lol. I got 3u on Williams so if he loses il be losing more than just a few arguments.

Nah man I'm not saying Gall is anything more than a journeyman. He's decent on the ground for sure, but yeah against a really strong guy like Perry he couldn't get anything done. I do think he did much better standing vs Perry than you're giving him credit for though. He landed harder shots and won a lot of the striking exchanges (which shocked me).

I am no way saying I'd bet Gall tonight. If I was forced to betting a side I'd bet Williams and pay the juice. I'm just way more comfortable passing altogether.

 

[Boxing Expert 101]

All the Jordan vs Gall talk, Jordan Ml and a small Gall sub hedge at +375 is the way to play that.

Or just Gall sub if you don’t feel like playing Jordan Ml.

Gall isn’t a round winner, and he is 1-2 in fights that go the distance. That one decision win was against Salim lol. I have a hard time seeing him win a decision here

 

[Boxing Expert 101]

Gall's cardio really only looked bad vs Diego and that was due to him having kidney failure before the fight. He was hospitalized for like a week after that fight because of it.

Even in his losses to Brown and Perry it really wasn't cardio that was his issue. It looked like he was just too content to play guard vs Brown, and too weak physically to get out from underneath Perry. The Perry fight was super bizarre because Gall actually seemed to get the better of it standing while Perry dominated the grappling.

I still think Williams is the far slicker striker and should get the better of the exchanges. Gall is tough as hell though and willing to be in a firefight. He's also a sub threat if he gets to a good position.

Fight is a hard pass imo.

I have a hard time agreeing Jordan Ml is a hard pass at -165 when Sandhagen is a play at -170.

I know different fights at etc, but I personally think Sandhagen at around -125 is more a play. -170 and def -200 is too high imo.

How much are you actually putting into Tj looking slower at age 35 and off EPO? I know it’s something to speculate about but maybe you’re putting too much stock into it.

Let says before TJ went to 125 to face CEJ, he faced Sandhagen then what would you line the match up at?

I know Sand has improved in two years too but style wise, beating Frankie and Marlon recently still doesn’t mean he should be this big of a favorite to me.

 

[mkess101]

I have a hard time agreeing Jordan Ml is a hard pass at -165 when Sandhagen is a play at -170.

I know different fights at etc, but I personally think Sandhagen at around -125 is more a play. -170 and def -200 is too high imo.

How much are you actually putting into Tj looking slower at age 35 and off EPO? I know it’s something to speculate about but maybe you’re putting too much stock into it.

Let says before TJ went to 125 to face CEJ, he faced Sandhagen then what would you line the match up at?

I know Sand has improved in two years too but style wise, beating Frankie and Marlon recently still doesn’t mean he should be this big of a favorite to me.

Honestly, I'm not saying it's possible TJ looks worse. I'm saying imo it's LIKELY.

35 is old at these lower weights to begin with. That's ONLY talking about his age. Now factor in all the other stuff. Long layoff. Was juicing for who knows how much of his career and likely now isn't. Has had to cut weight basically his whole life with his wrestling career then MMA. That takes a hard toll on a body.

Now, that doesn't mean I think it's a GUARANTEE he looks significantly worse. It's absolutely possible that he looks similar to his best at 135. Which is why Sandhagen above -200 is probably a pass imo. Implied odds I suppose not THAT much different but enough for me to make the play at the odds I got.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Some really interesting fights and lines.

Playing TJ at the current price is a must. Too many unknowns. Sandhagen has shown tons of holes. Could be a quick finish for either, dominant decision for either, or a fight of the year.

Phillips itd at +300 makes sense to me. Paiva has struggled with 125ers.

Minner is right side at current price. Elkins faded badly against Landwehr and Garagorri. Small hedge on Elkins +3.5pts at -145.

Barber/Maverick line is priced about right. Barber dominated Robertson more than Maverick did.

I bet Yanez at the -170 opener so I'm laughing.

Allen/Soriano is what being an MMA fan is all about. Playing Allen +1200 tko because it's a live outcome.

Imavov/Heinisch should be close. Dog is right side.

Williams/Gall... I will lose it if Gall pulls this off. Gall has typically folded badly when he can't outgrapple his opponents. He actually showed a good mixup in gameplan his last two fights, outstriking Touahri, and arguably outstriking. Perry. But Gall just gets eaten alive by well rounded guys who mix in takedowns. In his last 2/3 Williams has lost two close fights to two studs, and a brutal KO over a top 185'er.

Arce/Ewell... no real lean. Arce looked like a future champion against Ige but has since disappointed. Line is priced about right. Playing Arce -3.5pts at +140, even though I'm expecting a close fight.

Reed/Eubanks... watched zero tape on Reed. Will happily play +330 against a 36 year old woman.

Belbita/Goldy... only a true degenerate would put money on this fight. However, Belbita has only gone to decision 5 times in 19 fights. The itd line is +215.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Some really interesting fights and lines.

Playing TJ at the current price is a must. Too many unknowns. Sandhagen has shown tons of holes. Could be a quick finish for either, dominant decision for either, or a fight of the year.

Phillips itd at +300 makes sense to me. Paiva has struggled with 125ers.

Minner is right side at current price. Elkins faded badly against Landwehr and Garagorri. Small hedge on Elkins +3.5pts at -145.

Barber/Maverick line is priced about right. Barber dominated Robertson more than Maverick did.

I bet Yanez at the -170 opener so I'm laughing.

Allen/Soriano is what being an MMA fan is all about. Playing Allen +1200 tko because it's a live outcome.

Imavov/Heinisch should be close. Dog is right side.

Williams/Gall... I will lose it if Gall pulls this off. Gall has typically folded badly when he can't outgrapple his opponents. He actually showed a good mixup in gameplan his last two fights, outstriking Touahri, and arguably outstriking. Perry. But Gall just gets eaten alive by well rounded guys who mix in takedowns. In his last 2/3 Williams has lost two close fights to two studs, and a brutal KO over a top 185'er.

Arce/Ewell... no real lean. Arce looked like a future champion against Ige but has since disappointed. Line is priced about right. Playing Arce -3.5pts at +140, even though I'm expecting a close fight.

Reed/Eubanks... watched zero tape on Reed. Will happily play +330 against a 36 year old woman.

Belbita/Goldy... only a true degenerate would put money on this fight. However, Belbita has only gone to decision 5 times in 19 fights. The itd line is +215.

Disagree with a lot of your takes but it's all gravy baby.

One thing though is I don't remember Elkins fading badly in the Landwehr fight. I remember Nate fading badly.

He was taunting Elkins in round 1, and by the time round 3 rolled around, he thought he'd have put him out of there. Elkins was all bloodied up, and landing the better shots. I haven't seen that fight in a while, so I could be wrong.

I did not realize Allen TKO was +1200. Thanks for that.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Playing TJ at the current price is a must. Too many unknowns. Sandhagen has shown tons of holes. Could be a quick finish for either, dominant decision for either, or a fight of the year.

I like TJ at this price despite favoring Cory. I don't like betting on props but TJ sub is like +1200.
I TJ will struggle a lot with range and movement but he is a terrific grappler and uses it when he does need it (like he grapplefucked Lineker). The big quesiton is if he is as good at 35 out of EPO and after a 2 years layoff.
I think either Cory knocks him out or TJ dominates and probably finish the fight with his grappling.

 

[matthew55]

Some really interesting fights and lines.

Playing TJ at the current price is a must. Too many unknowns. Sandhagen has shown tons of holes. Could be a quick finish for either, dominant decision for either, or a fight of the year.

Phillips itd at +300 makes sense to me. Paiva has struggled with 125ers.

Minner is right side at current price. Elkins faded badly against Landwehr and Garagorri. Small hedge on Elkins +3.5pts at -145.

Barber/Maverick line is priced about right. Barber dominated Robertson more than Maverick did.

I bet Yanez at the -170 opener so I'm laughing.

Allen/Soriano is what being an MMA fan is all about. Playing Allen +1200 tko because it's a live outcome.

Imavov/Heinisch should be close. Dog is right side.

Williams/Gall... I will lose it if Gall pulls this off. Gall has typically folded badly when he can't outgrapple his opponents. He actually showed a good mixup in gameplan his last two fights, outstriking Touahri, and arguably outstriking. Perry. But Gall just gets eaten alive by well rounded guys who mix in takedowns. In his last 2/3 Williams has lost two close fights to two studs, and a brutal KO over a top 185'er.

Arce/Ewell... no real lean. Arce looked like a future champion against Ige but has since disappointed. Line is priced about right. Playing Arce -3.5pts at +140, even though I'm expecting a close fight.

Reed/Eubanks... watched zero tape on Reed. Will happily play +330 against a 36 year old woman.

Belbita/Goldy... only a true degenerate would put money on this fight. However, Belbita has only gone to decision 5 times in 19 fights. The itd line is +215.

What are Sandhagen's holes? I know his TDD isn't great, but I'm unsure of anything else. Genuinely asking btw lol

 

[Broe.]

What are Sandhagen's holes? I know his TDD isn't great, but I'm unsure of anything else. Genuinely asking btw lol

Takedown defense

 

[EndlessCritic]

What are Sandhagen's holes? I know his TDD isn't great, but I'm unsure of anything else. Genuinely asking btw lol

2nd fight: Got taken down and nearly submitted against Alcantara

3rd fight: bautista took this on short notice and was able to slam him.

4th fight: dead even fight with lineker. could have gone either way.

6th fight: taken down and subbed instantly against aljamain.


The best version of TJ isn't +180 here. We just don't know which version of TJ is going to show up.

 

[matthew55]

Takedown defense

I meant takedown defense (TDD)

 

[EndlessCritic]

One thing though is I don't remember Elkins fading badly in the Landwehr fight. I remember Nate fading badly.

I could be wrong too. I just remember Elkins looking good in the first round and then Landwehr taking over.

 

[mkess101]

2nd fight: Got taken down and nearly submitted against Alcantara

3rd fight: bautista took this on short notice and was able to slam him.

4th fight: dead even fight with lineker. could have gone either way.

6th fight: taken down and subbed instantly against aljamain.


The best version of TJ isn't +180 here. We just don't know which version of TJ is going to show up.

Sandhagen has seemed to improve his range finding a lot in his last couple fights, but yeah I agree that nobody thinks the best version of TJ would be anywhere near these odds vs Corey. I think too many people though are are miscalculating the chances that we actually see anything close the best version of TJ.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

How do we know TJ isn't juiced anymore?

 

[matthew55]

2nd fight: Got taken down and nearly submitted against Alcantara

3rd fight: bautista took this on short notice and was able to slam him.

4th fight: dead even fight with lineker. could have gone either way.

6th fight: taken down and subbed instantly against aljamain.


The best version of TJ isn't +180 here. We just don't know which version of TJ is going to show up.

So TDD basically. I kinda remember the fight with Lineker and it being close but Lineker was and is still a hell of a fighter. I remember him being in bad positions against Bautista and Alcantara but toughed it out. No shame to me in losing to Aljo the way he did, I think that was his best chance at a win and he got it. I can't see TJ actually trying to grapple unless he gets in trouble on the feet, if that's the case I'd think Cory would have a better chance at defending. I could also see TJ trying to get a takedown at the end of a close round. Who knows, could be a totally different TJ at this point. Kinda wanna see him win though because it's more interesting with the matchups and hype. He's also getting older while Cory should be around for awhile.