UFC Fight Night: Santos v Texeira

I really want to bet Waterson but her path to victory is in the grappling, and while she has very good grappling, her grappling isn't better than Gadelha's who couldn't take Hill to the ground besides one time...
 
GoatArtemLobov said:
I really want to bet Waterson but her path to victory is in the grappling, and while she has very good grappling, her grappling isn't better than Gadelha's who couldn't take Hill to the ground besides one time...
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I'm really sketched about Hill's cardio when it comes to 5 rounds, some late round takedowns might be on the table for Waterson.
 
I still think there is tons of value in Waterson sub at +600.
I mean, she has very good takedowns, sharp bjj, and Hill isn't exactly the best on the ground.
I give her 30% chances of subbing Hill, so +600 is nice.
 
I don't know much about Worthy (I'm sure I've seen him fight, just can't remember) but Ottman Azaitar looked to have really good striking against Teemu. If it's a kickboxing match and he's at dog odds...

Edit: in hindsight now that I've rewatched Khama's two ufc fights, I did see them and had just forgotten what happened. He's a good striker too but I'd take the dog. Should be a fun fight though
 
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Quarantillo R3 +900
Nelson R1 +825 vs. TKO/KO +585

Worthy submission +1060
 
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I like the point Dan Hardy made about how Waterson has Hill's preferred range "sandwiched": Hill's advantage is in the mid-range, while Waterson can work her kicks on the outside or get takedowns if Hill gets too close (still got the impression Dan is leaning Hill). The same dynamic was present in OSP vs. Menifield, and was extra accentuated by how Menifield can't keep from crashing into the clinch after throwing combos.

I think Hill is pretty good at getting and keeping the fight at mid-range, but Hill is going to have to stay sharp and work hard to keep the fight in her sweet spot. Having more "comfort zones" seems like a big advantage for MW over 5 rounds.
 
GoatArtemLobov said:
I mean, she has very good takedowns, sharp bjj, and Hill isn't exactly the best on the ground.
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Hill has improved a fuck ton on the ground over the years. Souza is likely a better sub threat than Waterson, and Hill survived against her for 5 full rounds with plenty of grappling.
 
I want to bet big on a parlay of 2-3 but there's way too many decent options.

I like Kish as a dog for a dec. But then I also like Mazio for a dec as well lol.

thinking them two to just reach a decision is likely. They're not finishers, and neither is way more skilled on the feet that they'll flog the other.

Liking a combo of Green and Rodriguez.

Then might do small 250-500 bets on Roxy, Barba, and a lot of the favs, which I like. Hill as well.
 
I think Hardy hits the nail on the head when he talks about the clinch. If Watterson finds herself in the clinch or eating jabs or body shots, she’s in deep doo doo. If she can attack the lead leg and show her “more diverse arsenal,” then she can get the fight to the ground.

I don’t buy into any cardio advantage on either side though I guess getting slaughtered by JJ for all of those rounds and Hill’s high volume could lead one to believe Michelle’s got the advantage here.

Angela has been on the upswing and, while people may not agree, I would have scored her last 6 fights as W’s so the 4/6 is pretty misleading. She screams true fighter to me whereas I can’t see how much actual training time Wattersons been able to get in. I give the mental edge to Hill

I also have a 12k parlay finishing w Hill so maybe this is wishful thinking and Hill gets subbed out in like the first minute.

Best of luck tonight gents.
 
TrueAscension said:
I think Hardy hits the nail on the head when he talks about the clinch. If Watterson finds herself in the clinch or eating jabs or body shots, she’s in deep doo doo. If she can attack the lead leg and show her “more diverse arsenal,” then she can get the fight to the ground.

I don’t buy into any cardio advantage on either side though I guess getting slaughtered by JJ for all of those rounds and Hill’s high volume could lead one to believe Michelle’s got the advantage here.

Angela has been on the upswing and, while people may not agree, I would have scored her last 6 fights as W’s so the 4/6 is pretty misleading. She screams true fighter to me whereas I can’t see how much actual training time Wattersons been able to get in. I give the mental edge to Hill

I also have a 12k parlay finishing w Hill so maybe this is wishful thinking and Hill gets subbed out in like the first minute.

Best of luck tonight gents.
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This seems like a card that's going to see a lot of finishes, I was thinking you might have some crazy parlay action going on! I was thinking of a 6 way that would look something like Roberts, Rodriguez, Romanov, Turner, and Barbarena all ITD, with Avila played straight in there as well. 25 returns 450. What do you think sir? I'm not sure if I should swap in Quarantillo over any of these guys...
 
I like romanov by finish x 1.6. Turner by finish x 1.8 and Roberts by finish x 2.
 
Broe. said:
I like romanov by finish x 1.6. Turner by finish x 1.8 and Roberts by finish x 2.
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Roberts is the only one that concerns me, though his opponent tonight isn't flattering... Roberts doesn't pack much, if any power on his punches, and his sub game seems to be limited to RNC's and guillotines. I don't know, a decision seems more probable than say the Turner fight, what with Turner never having gone to a decision.
 
NewLockGuy said:
Roberts is the only one that concerns me, though his opponent tonight isn't flattering... Roberts doesn't pack much, if any power on his punches, and his sub game seems to be limited to RNC's and guillotines. I don't know, a decision seems more probable than say the Turner fight, what with Turner never having gone to a decision.
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Yeah im just banking on the short notice and the small cage. Finish seems more likely to me.
 
I thought this parlay was nice as a long shot: Q and Avila inside the distance and Ivy dec all told comes to about +5500.
 
longway said:
I thought this parlay was nice as a long shot: Q and Avila inside the distance and Ivy dec all told comes to about +5500.
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Don't think Ivy has ever gone to decision, win or lose, not to see he can't like
 
NewLockGuy said:
This seems like a card that's going to see a lot of finishes, I was thinking you might have some crazy parlay action going on! I was thinking of a 6 way that would look something like Roberts, Rodriguez, Romanov, Turner, and Barbarena all ITD, with Avila played straight in there as well. 25 returns 450. What do you think sir? I'm not sure if I should swap in Quarantillo over any of these guys...
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Disclaimer I am not betting on this card. I only have Hill which I may hedge out of after rewatching her weigh in. She looks like she has no desire to be fighting. Maybe a bad weight cut.

Parlay for shits n giggles?

Barbarena o 1.5
Hill/Watterson u 4.5
Worthy u 2.5
Weaver/Turner doesnt go distance
Seattle ML (NFL)
 
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