UFC Fight Night: Smith v Rakic

Wasn't going to post this one yet, but I saw the odds and ooo baby

Zak Cummings at only 1.75 v Alessio Di Chirico??? Real quick, can anybody tell me what Di Chirico is actually good at?

Gut says Hannah Cifers being a moderate 2.46 dog v Mallory Martin is absurd and only occurring because she looked so pathetic against Agapova, but I'll have to re-tape that one

Gut also says Polyana Viana can't wrestle, so while it'll be ugly, Whitmire should get the W. Again, will need to tape (currently evens)

I get Alexa Grasso is hot, but can anyone really justify Ji Yeon Kim being 3.08 against her? Kim is a BIG girl

As much as I'm definitely getting flamed for this, I really don't think Anthony Smith is that bad a fighter, and again his line feels like recency bias affecting things (he's currently 3.08 against Rakic, feels like he's R1 KO or bust and Anthony Smith doesn't get put down that easy. Feel like this could look like Smith v Oezdemir, or Smith v Gus)

Oh and obviously Agapova is gonna wreck Shana Dobson, but I'm guessing her KO line will be 1.16
 
Tirimasuperman said:
Wasn't going to post this one yet, but I saw the odds and ooo baby

Zak Cummings at only 1.75 v Alessio Di Chirico??? Real quick, can anybody tell me what Di Chirico is actually good at?

Gut says Hannah Cifers being a moderate 2.46 dog v Mallory Martin is absurd and only occurring because she looked so pathetic against Agapova, but I'll have to re-tape that one

Gut also says Polyana Viana can't wrestle, so while it'll be ugly, Whitmire should get the W. Again, will need to tape (currently evens)

I get Alexa Grasso is hot, but can anyone really justify Ji Yeon Kim being 3.08 against her? Kim is a BIG girl

As much as I'm definitely getting flamed for this, I really don't think Anthony Smith is that bad a fighter, and again his line feels like recency bias affecting things (he's currently 3.08 against Rakic, feels like he's R1 KO or bust and Anthony Smith doesn't get put down that easy. Feel like this could look like Smith v Oezdemir, or Smith v Gus)

Oh and obviously Agapova is gonna wreck Shana Dobson, but I'm guessing her KO line will be 1.16
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Im goin heavy on kim.

* same girl that was +600 to KO nadia. And then the commentator said she broke a guys orbital in training from a punch.
 
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I'll pay a little juice on Lamas over Hall. Ricardo is a guy who can handle Hall's bjj and leglock game and make him pay with gnp. Hall may be the better pure bjj player, but the gap isn't that wide and Hall's kick spamming game isn't gonna be effective vs Lamas striking imo. Hall is awkward and weirdly effective but I think this matchup sucks for him.
 
mkess101 said:
I'll pay a little juice on Lamas over Hall. Ricardo is a guy who can handle Hall's bjj and leglock game and make him pay with gnp. Hall may be the better pure bjj player, but the gap isn't that wide and Hall's kick spamming game isn't gonna be effective vs Lamas striking imo. Hall is awkward and weirdly effective but I think this matchup sucks for him.
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Lamas should be able to neutralize Hall's bjj. Lamas via TKO.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
Is it just me or does it feel too soon for Smith comeback after that brutal punishment he took from Glover?
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He may prefer to do that and get some more free dental work.
Jokes aside, yeah its very soon after such a heavy beating.
 
FimbulFightPicks said:
He may prefer to do that and get some more free dental work.
Jokes aside, yeah its very soon after such a heavy beating.
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I agree to soon Rakic can be quite brutal on beating on his opponents. This is another good interesting fight card.
Which is why i think this fight match might go to decision or unless Rakic finds a early path for a ko.
 
Main card is better than the PPV we just watched imo.. Can't wait to see Lawler and Ryan Hall fights, pretty stacked Fight Night.
 
Does anyone know why Lawler is so inactive lately? Almost feels like he retired or something.
 
Congrats to the people who hit Mallory Martin at -1XX odds, but I don't think there is any more value in her at -270.

Basically, neither her wrestling game nor her top-game is potent or reliable enough to play at these odds. The wrestling is above average for a woman, but still very flawed, with her not getting low enough, and generally being slow and indecisive on her entries, as well as not setting them up.

Cifers' takedown defense is mediocre, but good enough to defend against at least a solid portion of Martin's single-legs and clinch attempts. And that's assuming Cifers hasn't improved in this regard since the Hill fight, which she might have.

Once down, Cifers is absolutely dreadful, yes, but again, there is some possibility of improvement since the Hill fight, and Martin isn't exactly great from the top. She has some ability to improve position courtesy of her jits, but her GNP is fairly weak, which is what Cifers is most vulnerable to.

Meanwhile, Cifers will have a sizable striking advantage. Additionally, we know that Martin has a weak chin (Cifers could drop her), very average cardio, with her wrestling becoming considerably worse each round, and poor fight IQ.

Obviously, some variables need to go Cifers' way to give her a chance at winning a decision or getting the knockout, but it's not hard to imagine scenarios where she does so. At -270, we need to believe that Cifers has a less than 25% shot, and that seems overly optimistic here.
 
Giga by decision is looking to be play of the year worthy and ji yeon Kim by decision is def worth a stab as well.
 
I see some value in Bruce, Giga is not that good and gasses like crazy. 2 splits and a dec against a tiny short notice Rivera
 

Nice analysis on Rakic and Smith. I am a bit conflicted about this fight. On the one hand I think Rakic is too violent and powerful, especially after Anthony's loss against Glover. But I also feel like the line is too wide and Smith can eek out a decision if he manages his gas a bit better.
 
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