UFC Fight Night: Smith v Rakic

[TrueAscension]

I didn't think it was respectful so I called him a dumb ass..I actually think it's pretty douchey to interject yourself when not needed. You this forum's hall monitor?

Ah how precious. Enjoy the fights tonight.

 

[avid1]

Smith dec +815 is ridiculous. I don't expect it to hit necessarily but jeez...if Rakic gasses at all, Smith could definitely win the second half of the fight and steal a decision.

incredible odds. My bookies has it at 5.5.

 

[BigSteve]

According to Bobby Green the UFC is starting to mail out tests now. Given everything going on I'm not sure that'll help much.


Those poor bookies must hate having to hold onto those prebets from all these canceled fights.

Still waiting for my Croom V Caceres money lol

 

[xhaydenx]

Bit late, but what you lot thinking about Cifers vs Martin?

Martin is the heavy fav. She's only lost one fight recently and it was to Virna, which is nothing to be ashamed about. Meanwhile, Cifers has lost her last three to Hill, Dern and Agapova.

However, this smells a lot like Tecia vs Van Burren to me. I broke that down before the fight and bet big on Tecia for the easy win. I'm seeing so many similarities here.

1. Yes, lots of recent losses for Cifers, but look who she's been losing to: Hill, who recently went to a split with Claudia and is no slouch, Aga, who is violent and was so much bigger, and Dern, who got the sub.

Mallory's big win streak before losing to Virna was against much lower level comp in Invicta than what Cifers was losing to.

Things to look at there: Mallory is a grappler, but so was Dern. When Cifers fought Dern, she was handling her in the clinch with no issues at all. She stupidly didn't get out of there when Dern went to the mat and ended up getting subbed. Mallory doesn't have the same sub threat. She also doesn't have the strength and size of Dern.

The TD won't be easy for Mallory, and if she can't get it, she'll have to bang it out with Cifers. On the feet, Cifers is strong and I think even a bit faster than Mallory.

Ah fuckj. This ones up first so no more time.. Guess I'm live betting it. Sorta expeting an upset.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-smith-vs-rakic-pbp-discussion.4130342/

 

[Broe.]

Yeah, it's very obvious she's bitten by 'the bug', 35+ woman in hollywood desperately hanging on to her looks, it's going to go hard from here on.

yeah instead of just accepting that you are aging, if you take good care of yourself you can still look good after 35 without resorting to plastic surgery.

 

[PuertoRican]

Robbie Lawler's fight history during the past 5 years:

• loss vs. Covington (August 2019 - Lawler looked lost throughout this fight.)
• loss vs. Askren (March 2019 - A controversial stoppage, depending who you ask. I thought he was out and woke back up when Askren let the choke go.)
• loss vs. RDA (December 2017 - Lawler looked lost throughout this fight.)
• win vs. Cerrone (July 2017 - A 2-1 decision for Lawler; he won R1, lost R2, and R3 was very close.)
• loss vs. Woodley (July 2016 - Quick KO.)
• win vs. Condit (January 2016 - Condit landed almost double the significant strikes and landed the most strikes in every round, but still lost a split-decision. Striking stats are at the bottom of this page.)
• win vs. MacDonald (July 2015) MacDonald was on his way to winning a unanimous decision on all three of the judges scorecards -- I attached the scorecards in the spoiler below -- until his nose shattered via a jab on his nose in Round 5, and he said he could only see black and had to quit.

Spoiler

Lawler hasn't finished anyone in 5 years, and that last finish was against Rory via shattered nose in Round 5. Prior to that, Lawler's last finish was 6+ years ago against Jake Ellenberger. You have to go back to 7+ years ago to see Lawler consistently finishing fights, which is what most people think about when they hear/see Robbie Lawler's name.

To add onto this, people who are backing Lawler need to ask themselves why he took this fight against Magny on 20 days short notice.

Lawler can fight someone like Magny on a full camp whenever he wants. So why did he accept a short notice fight? I don't think it's because he "just wanted to get back in there." He's at the stage of his career where he can fight almost anyone at welterweight, at any time, on a full camp.

If Lawler needs the money, then I understand. This would mean that he needs quick cash and isn't expecting to win a technical 15-minute decision against someone who will likely beat him via decision. This makes me think that Lawler will start fast in Round 1 like he did against Cerrone, except that with Cerrone he had the ability to take Round 2 off and come back in Round 3 to win a close fight -- Magny won't let Lawler coast to a decision win.

I think Magny will win most of the time in this spot against this version of Lawler in 2020, but I don't feel comfortable betting Magny's decision line, which most people think is his likeliest path to victory.

So, Robbie Lawler is now on a 4-fight losing streak, and it seems as if he took the fight against Magny on 20 days short notice to earn some quick money.

Notice a trend in the responses I added for his last few losses? I assume he'll be given one more fight in the UFC, and I look forward to fading him again. Also, an interesting thing to note is that his wins over Cerrone, Condit, and MacDonald were fights that he was allowed to stand in the center of the cage, or dictate where the fight took place. In his fights against Magny, Covington, RDA, and Woodley, they all had him with his back against the cage or near the cage during large/important parts of the fight (Woodley kept circling and finally got Lawler to go in the direction he wanted, and he didn't have much space to move and eventually stopped moving, which then caused him to get dropped with a big punch).

• loss vs. Magny (August 2020) - Lawler looked lost throughout this fight.)
• loss vs. Covington (August 2019 - Lawler looked lost throughout this fight.)
• loss vs. Askren (March 2019 - A controversial stoppage, depending who you ask. I thought he was out and woke back up when Askren let the choke go.)
• loss vs. RDA (December 2017 - Lawler looked lost throughout this fight.)
• win vs. Cerrone (July 2017 - A 2-1 decision for Lawler; he won R1, lost R2, and R3 was very close.)
• loss vs. Woodley (July 2016 - Quick KO.)
• win vs. Condit (January 2016 - Condit landed almost double the significant strikes and landed the most strikes in every round, but still lost a split-decision. Striking stats are at the bottom of this page.)
• win vs. MacDonald (July 2015) MacDonald was on his way to winning a unanimous decision on all three of the judges scorecards -- I attached the scorecards in the spoiler below -- until his nose shattered via a jab on his nose in Round 5, and he said he could only see black and had to quit.

 

[Red_2]

So, Robbie Lawler is now on a 4-fight losing streak, and it seems as if he took the fight against Magny on 20 days short notice to earn some quick money.

Notice a trend in the responses I added for his last few losses? I assume he'll be given one more fight in the UFC, and I look forward to fading him again. Also, an interesting thing to note is that his wins over Cerrone, Condit, and MacDonald were fights that he was allowed to stand in the center of the cage, or dictate where the fight took place. In his fights against Magny, Covington, RDA, and Woodley, they all had him with his back against the cage or near the cage during large/important parts of the fight (Woodley kept circling and finally got Lawler to go in the direction he wanted, and he didn't have much space to move and eventually stopped moving, which then caused him to get dropped with a big punch).

• loss vs. Magny (August 2020) - Lawler looked lost throughout this fight.)
• loss vs. Covington (August 2019 - Lawler looked lost throughout this fight.)
• loss vs. Askren (March 2019 - A controversial stoppage, depending who you ask. I thought he was out and woke back up when Askren let the choke go.)
• loss vs. RDA (December 2017 - Lawler looked lost throughout this fight.)
• win vs. Cerrone (July 2017 - A 2-1 decision for Lawler; he won R1, lost R2, and R3 was very close.)
• loss vs. Woodley (July 2016 - Quick KO.)
• win vs. Condit (January 2016 - Condit landed almost double the significant strikes and landed the most strikes in every round, but still lost a split-decision. Striking stats are at the bottom of this page.)
• win vs. MacDonald (July 2015) MacDonald was on his way to winning a unanimous decision on all three of the judges scorecards -- I attached the scorecards in the spoiler below -- until his nose shattered via a jab on his nose in Round 5, and he said he could only see black and had to quit.

Great breakdown fwiw.

 

[Vitor Apologist]

Thank you Ricardo Lamas.