UFC Fight Night - Smith vs Spann - Offical discussion

Anyone have any major doubts about Smith beating Spann? His jab was looking sharp in the Crute fight, and I don’t think Spann has the wrestling to consistently ground him. Plus, that kind of wrestle-heavy grind hasn’t really been Spann’s style, unless I’m misremembering

I guess I’m ready to be hurt again because I’m half tempted to put a small bet on Lipski. Even odds against a fighter with a thin, Euro-WMMA record seems doable. She’s been training at ATT so hopefully that helps her ground game a little. That, plus I would hope Devin Clark will be able to execute the clear gameplay against Cutelaba, take him down and grind him out.
 
Shelter said:
Anyone have any major doubts about Smith beating Spann? His jab was looking sharp in the Crute fight, and I don’t think Spann has the wrestling to consistently ground him. Plus, that kind of wrestle-heavy grind hasn’t really been Spann’s style, unless I’m misremembering

I guess I’m ready to be hurt again because I’m half tempted to put a small bet on Lipski. Even odds against a fighter with a thin, Euro-WMMA record seems doable. She’s been training at ATT so hopefully that helps her ground game a little. That, plus I would hope Devin Clark will be able to execute the clear gameplay against Cutelaba, take him down and grind him out.
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Spann's only threat here would be hurting Anthony on the feet, which isn't out of the realm of possibility, but he's going to get clocked himself sooner or later in the fight imo.

Clark and Motta are two dogs I feel like playing. Ion's only got a round in him and has been outwrestled before, and Motta seems like he might overpower old man Jim, though he needs to cross his I's and dot his Q's on the mat.
 
Whitmire/Goldy-Over
Blanchfield/Alpar--Over
Bush/Rhong-Under
Gravely/Maness-Under
Nchuki/Rodriguez-Under
Kianzin/Pennigton-Over
Tsurkyan/Giagos-Over
Bohm/Lipski-Over
 
Shelter said:
Anyone have any major doubts about Smith beating Spann? His jab was looking sharp in the Crute fight, and I don’t think Spann has the wrestling to consistently ground him. Plus, that kind of wrestle-heavy grind hasn’t really been Spann’s style, unless I’m misremembering

I guess I’m ready to be hurt again because I’m half tempted to put a small bet on Lipski. Even odds against a fighter with a thin, Euro-WMMA record seems doable. She’s been training at ATT so hopefully that helps her ground game a little. That, plus I would hope Devin Clark will be able to execute the clear gameplay against Cutelaba, take him down and grind him out.
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Ya
 
pre-tape lean on Smith ITD

Spann is gassed by the end of the 3rd in every fight he's in, Smith has an experience advantage, cardio, and is very durable.

He's live for a sub once Spann gasses, rounds 3-5 props will be juicy.
 
I have take back my comment on Spann not wrestling, he was going for takedowns against Walker before he got TKO’d. Whether that will be the plan against Smith remains to be seen.
 
Shelter said:
I have take back my comment on Spann not wrestling, he was going for takedowns against Walker before he got TKO’d. Whether that will be the plan against Smith remains to be seen.
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Spann is KO or bust here.

Smith has way better BJJ, and if Spann does take him down, even if he controls him for a round, it'll tire him out more than anything.

I see Smith getting a TD himself later in this fight and finishing it on the ground.

I bet on Crute to beat Smith, due to Smith having pretty bad TDD -- but Crute has better cardio than Spann does, and that was a 3 round fight.
 
Post 2 Decision said:
Some auto-fades on this card:
Spann - bad
Clark - worse
Arroyo - worst

Tsarukyan clear favourite over Giagos too
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Don't know why you'd fade Clark here tbh, this stylistically the type of fight he prevails in. Obviously Cutelaba's got one hell of a puncher's chance, but still.
 
Spann/Smith - Spann, very steady, measured approach, wants to slowly work his way in with the jab and the threat of the level change and ideally back his opponent to the cage where he can fall into the the exchange and clinch or grab a body lock or drop to the hips. Strong cage push, strong clinch, slightly less effective takedown game against the cage, can be stalled here by a wide base and waste energy. Heavy lead leg, and doesn't do much to address low kicks, boxing defence is very patchy but does look to be improving fight to fight. Gets caught with counters, gets caught coming out of exchanges too often, but shows a solid chin and will reset and return to his game. Good composure. Effective half guard game, good elbows from top, looks for arm triangles too, does occasionally pass to mount but really seems more effective and less likely to lose position if he holds half guard. Starts rounds with a bounce in his step but this quickly disappears and he's naturally a plodder, slow moving slow hands but can explode in spurts and looks very dangerous when he does, again measured when he unloads, 5/6 punch combination but will pull back if he doesn't see the finish coming, very gas tank aware. Poor takedown defence, especially if his opponent is fresh, and once on his back he is usually staying there a while, he's responsible on bottom and can occasionally sweep but it rarely happens quickly. First line of defence for takedown attempts is a front choke, loves the front head lock series in general, very good high elbow guilly, will look for this often, has darce attempts, anacondas too. Sometimes holds onto these attempts too long, burns his arms out and ends up in a bad position for it. Definitely a work in progress, needs to increase the volume and variety of his striking approach, which their are glimpses of, flashed a low kick, started to use the front kick more too, and the odd high kick but favours boxing.


Smith - Works the jab well, doesn't rush his work, even if he is leading and pressuring he will just remain consistent with the pressure it doesn't ramp up. Good sense of distance and range, finds a way to hang around just half a foot or so out of his opponents boxing range boxing range, and times his punches well from there. Lots of jabs, some winging right hands here and there, low kicks, front kicks, a good variety of strikes over all and throws from more angles. Likes to lead and work his opponents back to the cage and then keep the pressure on from there, cuts the cage off well, doesn't follow but controls. Can react badly to damage and will shell up and and show he's hurt, if the fight starts to slip away or he feels he's not finding a way into the fight be will shut down and become defensive and ready to be finished. Very experienced but also shop worn, if still durable, he is prone to occasionally just taking a bad punch or kick and getting badly hurt. Can be pushed to the cage and controlled there for stretches, shows decent TDD but when he is taken down he can be held down, looks to get butterflies from the bottom and create space but if this doesn't happen quickly he will settle on bottom and just close guard, does have a submission game from the bottom but not aggressive with it. Good from the back, hooks in, flattens opponents out and looks for chokes/GNP. Takes a while to warm up, likes to paw with the jab, make reads and gather information and then the out put and strike variety builds from there, once he has a rhythm he doesn't give opponents a break, can lul you into his game if you allow it. Lacks some physicallity, he's not a physical freak at LHW, not explosive or particularly fast over all and can be out muscled in spots.

I expect a fairly slow pace building fight, cage push and clinch heavy, with occasional breaks for flurries. May come down to a test of endurance, but close rounds could be decided by single flurries or takedowns. Favour Spann to use his physicallity and strength.

Like Spann ML, like over 2.5, Spann sub at crazy prices, Smith decision at crazy prices.
 
Bohm/Lipski - Bohm good clinch knees, good clinch in general, strong against the cage, strong under and over hooks, does all her work off the lead left hand, jabs well, hooks off the lead hand, will throw the right hand sparingly but leaves herself open defensively when she does, slow to bring her guard back, would benefit her to kick more, front kicks, teeps, trips from the clinch, will even shoot doubles in the open, not great wrestling but persistent and her ground game is one of her best weapons, controls position well, looks for subs and GnP, long legs help her keep back position even if she is high on the back.

Lipski dangerous early, explosive power, big fast right hand, stuns opponents with it and can hurt them, works hard to try and defend takedowns but is weaker in the body lock and will give into takedowns if they're pushed hard enough, once on the mat she does work, looks to create space but finds little of it, and generally will resign herself to closing guard and trying to minimise damage.

Bohm with a gameplan should work the clinch knees, looks for trips near the cage and look to get the back or top, must remain defensively cautions especially entering exchanges and exiting them, limit right hands and keep that right arm guard up

Close to 50/50 standing, Lipski power edge, but Bohm has more areas she can exploit, clinch, cage push, TDs, top game, trips.

Bohm ML, sub/TKO if price is huge
 
Saturday, September 18.2021 at 04:00 PM eastern
ESPN+
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
UFC Vegas 37

15 fights scheduled as of Sunday, September 5

Anthony Smith quotes:

“I do like the fight, I’m a fan of his (Ryan Spann) style. It’s been fun for me, you know, the last three guys that I’ve been matched up with, I’ve been fans of how they approach the game. All three of them are very different, but they all like to fight, and where we are in the space in MMA right now, there’s not a lot of guys who like to straight-up throw down. Devin Clark likes to fight and comes forward. Jimmy Crute, obviously likes to fight and just marches forward the entire time, it doesn’t matter what you hit that guy with he keeps coming.

I think Ryan Spann is the same, but I don’t know how long that mentality is gonna last, you know,” Smith explained. “There’s been some situations where you can see Ryan Spann fade a little bit. He does have a tendency to wilt in tough situations.

I would suspect that they’re (Spann and Fortis MMA) are gonna wanna blend and kinda fight everywhere and be unpredictable, but when he gets hit hard, he does tend to start shooting,” Smith said. “He doesn’t necessarily enjoy it so much, and I don’t mean that as a knock on him, not a lot of people are like me and don’t really change their game plan when they get punched in the face — it’s probably smarter to be honest with you.

It’s a big fight for him, it’s a big moment. I got a lot of experience. He’s not gonna show me anything I haven’t seen before, there’s nothing new or flashy, or fancy or special another Ryan Spann. That doesn’t mean he’s not tough. That doesn’t mean he’s not skilled or he can’t beat me. There’s just nothing special about him. I suspect that he’s gonna be really tough for one round. But I think at five minutes and one second into the fight, that fight looks totally different.“

-Anthony Smith












“I don’t like people. Just kidding. I do like people. I don’t like people a little bit.”
-Ryan Spann

Ryan Spann will have a 5.5 inch reach advantage, 1 inch taller, and is 3 years younger
 
I will never forget that Ryan spann had a pee bottle because he was too depressed to get out of bed.

I ponder on what happened when he needed to poop…
 
Tefon/Rodriguez- Tefon slow edging pressure game, selective with when he throws strikes but limited in the types of strikes he uses - Jab, hooks to the body or head, occasionally low kicks and occasionally high kicks. Does his best work in the clinch and cage push positions, strong against the cage, uses knees and hooks to the body here, will break the clinch with an elbow over the top or as his opponent circles out he will try and catch them with a high kick (contender series KO). Tafon's game in a nutshell-Pressures, bursts in with a lunging jab, grabs the clinch, small exchange, break and reset - That's essentially it. Can switch stance but never does it fluidly in combination, just sometimes he turns orthodox for no reason and then will switch back to South paw, can jab and kick to the body from both sides. Showed a low single attempt once or twice, well timed but needs to work on the technique. Measured and paced to a fault, does slow and gas but fights in a way to manage this as much as he can. Wide open to body kick, front kicks, out jabbed by Park who was at a 5 inch reach disadvantage.When under fire he shells up with the high guard and just tries to bob and shift his upper body through it. Patient and focused fighter but limited. Seems to very durable.

Rodriguez - Has the fight IQ of a tangerine. Has all the tools in the world, almost designed to beat a fighter like Tafon. Great front kick and uses it as a go to weapon, not just an after thought, nice body kick, uses his length in his straight punches but does lunge with them rather that just firing the jab like a piston. Can explode and flurry and holds some power but has a terrible habit of almost falling over himself as he throws and ending up in clinches, usually against the cage. If he is controlling the clinch he does good work with his knees, some body work, some elbows over the top too, but if he is reversed or pushed to the clinch he can be worked here with the same weapons. Very vulnerable to the bodylock take down and body lock trips, just collapses. Seems to panic, even if things are going well for him. Has no poker face, if a strike hurts him he will immediately show it on his face and usually starts backing up to the cage, again. If he could be disaplined enough to stick to jabs and front kicks he'd have much more success but he just can't resist clinching up. He seems to feel it's a safety net for him, but it ends up being more of a spiders web. Wants to move forward, work the front kick, work the straight punches and flurry then back out of the exchange, but rarely sticks to this approach. Huge potential, seems to be his own worst enemy. Physically blessed, but just can't seem to hold a coherent game together over 15 minuets and can't stick to a gameplan. Will be the faster more fluid mover, and should, in theory be able to hit and move on a very plodding, near stationary target, but probably allows himself to get walked down, backed to the cage and beat up.

Over 1.5 rounds best bet, GTD at crazy odds, if I had to play a money line I'd have to take Tafon - But I feel like one day a switch will just click for Rodriguez and he will just get it, maybe it's here - I wouldn't hate a bet on 'point to be deducted', both men love a foul, and Rodriguez likes to get fouled, the size disparity and the close quarters fight that likely plays out means nut shots are a sure thing.
 
TrueAscension said:
Dog. Shit. Card.
Pass.

Max betting Medic soon though on every site I find
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I already have him against Turner,but max betting?Like he only had one UFC fight and has not been trully tested and Turner is solid
 
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