UFC Fight Night - Smith vs Spann - Offical discussion

Rong Zhu (158)* vs. Brandon Jenkins (155.5)
* Zhu missed the lightweight limit by 2 pounds; given one additional hour for second attempt.

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Spann is fucked

I think if it goes past rd 1 he is. I do think he's live for a rd 1 KO, although I don't see that as likely. But he's got pop and while Smith isn't inept with his defensive striking, he absolutely will give openings periodically where guys can hit him.

I think the ideal situation for someone looking to live bet is a competitive first round where Spann looks good and probably wins the round but doesn't really hurt Smith. At that point I could see odds going to even or possibly even Smith as a slight dog. And that's when people should hammer his line.

I just am wary about Spann landing an early bomb in this one. Not totally sure why if I'm being honest...
 
I think if it goes past rd 1 he is. I do think he's live for a rd 1 KO, although I don't see that as likely. But he's got pop and while Smith isn't inept with his defensive striking, he absolutely will give openings periodically where guys can hit him.

I think the ideal situation for someone looking to live bet is a competitive first round where Spann looks good and probably wins the round but doesn't really hurt Smith. At that point I could see odds going to even or possibly even Smith as a slight dog. And that's when people should hammer his line.

I just am wary about Spann landing an early bomb in this one. Not totally sure why if I'm being honest...

Spann rd 1 is +700, I think it's an easy hedge, it just might be a bit nerve racking for a couple of minutes in round 2

I'm surprised that books see a Smith rd 1 finish as more likely
 
Spann rd 1 is +700, I think it's an easy hedge, it just might be a bit nerve racking for a couple of minutes in round 2

I'm surprised that books see a Smith rd 1 finish as more likely
I believe that is because Ryan has been stopped in the first in all of his losses via stoppage, two of them being in less than 30 seconds if memory serves (Roberson and some can), and Smith getting early finishes in his last two.

Him coming out hard early against Glover might also be taken into account here.
I think if it goes past rd 1 he is. I do think he's live for a rd 1 KO, although I don't see that as likely. But he's got pop and while Smith isn't inept with his defensive striking, he absolutely will give openings periodically where guys can hit him.

I think the ideal situation for someone looking to live bet is a competitive first round where Spann looks good and probably wins the round but doesn't really hurt Smith. At that point I could see odds going to even or possibly even Smith as a slight dog. And that's when people should hammer his line.

I just am wary about Spann landing an early bomb in this one. Not totally sure why if I'm being honest...
Funnily enough I'm the complete opposite, I think Ryan will get caught coming in early and fold. He's just so defensively porous that I see him rushing into a finishing blow, maybe after getting too eager.

Part of the reason why I think that, aside from the fact that his fight with Walker played out exactly like that, is that I think a crafty vet who's not too shopworn is an awful matchup for a messy fighter like Ryan. He nearly snatched a loss from the jaws of victory against Alvey due to poor decision making.

He is a specimen though, so I can see why some think he overwhelms Anthony.
 
Spann has knocked out two of his biggest name opponents so far but they were also his most chinny opponents. I cant believe how bad he looked vs Sam Alvey. But the current lhw champ and n.1 contender also had some shitty performances so maybe judging the division by just past fights is a mistake.
 
Spann rd 1 is +700, I think it's an easy hedge, it just might be a bit nerve racking for a couple of minutes in round 2

I'm surprised that books see a Smith rd 1 finish as more likely

I have some Spann KO 1 at +1700
 
Spann rd 1 is +700, I think it's an easy hedge, it just might be a bit nerve racking for a couple of minutes in round 2

I'm surprised that books see a Smith rd 1 finish as more likely

Spann is a bit of a glass cannon. He's tough to predict imo.
 
Spann rd 1 is +700, I think it's an easy hedge, it just might be a bit nerve racking for a couple of minutes in round 2

I'm surprised that books see a Smith rd 1 finish as more likely
Who has finished smith in the first round?

I will likely be big on fdngtd and smith itd as the night progresses
 
I believe that is because Ryan has been stopped in the first in all of his losses via stoppage, two of them being in less than 30 seconds if memory serves (Roberson and some can), and Smith getting early finishes in his last two.

Him coming out hard early against Glover might also be taken into account here.

Funnily enough I'm the complete opposite, I think Ryan will get caught coming in early and fold. He's just so defensively porous that I see him rushing into a finishing blow, maybe after getting too eager.

Part of the reason why I think that, aside from the fact that his fight with Walker played out exactly like that, is that I think a crafty vet who's not too shopworn is an awful matchup for a messy fighter like Ryan. He nearly snatched a loss from the jaws of victory against Alvey due to poor decision making.

He is a specimen though, so I can see why some think he overwhelms Anthony.

All of that is fair for sure, but I'm not sure that Smith has the reflexes and counterstriking anymore to be the guy who makes Spann pay early. Spann had Walker in all sorts of trouble too, that fight easily could have been stopped the other way (it was a good non-stoppage, don't get me wrong, but Walker was REALLY close to being finished). I think Lionheart's way more clear ptv is to avoid Spann's power early and grind him out starting 7-8 minutes into the fight. Make him grapple, even if it's just wall n stall for awhile to tire him out. Then take over as the fight goes on.
 
Who has finished smith in the first round?

I will likely be big on fdngtd and smith itd as the night progresses

Totally fair question. Smith has never shown a lack of durability at LHW at all. That said...the kind of sustained beating he took from Glover is extremely rare in MMA. Like, maybe Cain/JDS 2 was as bad or worse and that's literally the only one I can think of off the top of my head. Those type of beatings can be career altering, esp for a guy who's 33 and has a decent amount of tread worn off his tires already. He's had 50+ fights. He's definitely at that point where chin/recovery often falls off a cliff. That may well not be now, he could be 2 or 3 years away from it but I'm wary that the Glover beating hasn't sped up that timeline.
 
Spann is going to heavily implement his wrestling, and Smith really only has great BJJ when he's on top.

Having Spann wear on him WILL tire Smith out, despite him having the better cardio. He's not going to be able to get out from underneath Spann the first few rounds.

They're both going to be tired, Spann probably up 3 rounds, and Smith is going to dig deep and finish him in the 4th or 5th imo

Watching tape again after placing my smith ITD bet, he has Condit level TDD.

If anyone stabbed Spann decision @ +800 I would not be mad, I really don't think he's ko or bust like I did previously.
 
I know that this is extremely unlikely, but Cutelaba is going to have a huge strength advantage in round 1 and despite him not having any subs in the UFC, the odds shouldn't be this wide imo. Other books have it @ +1200

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Something I learned a few months ago: Always bet something on Cutelaba to go to a draw. The man's a beast. He's a first-round fighter with a lot of heart.

I've got $5 on Draw to win $400

<Fedor23>
 
Honestly loving this card for betting

Maness +170 against Gravely makes no sense.
Nchukwi and Pennington at even are solid plays.
How is Zhu Rong -300 after his last horrible performance?
Carlston Harris at even is the right side. His strength of schedule is very impressive.
Congrats to those who tailed.
 
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