UFC Fight Night - Strickland vs Hall - Official discussion

So jinh yu frey's reward for beating gloria de paula is fighting near bottom of the card, meanwhile paula's reward for losing said matchup is being 1 fight away from the co-main. Did paula blow sean shelby or something?

Anyways this card is shite, bellator smokes it that same day.
 
I have no idea where to even start on this one.

Maybe some value on Yanan Wu at +150? She’s bigger, and Montano has withdrawn from four fights due to either testing positive for COVID or injury since she last fought in 2019. Not too confident in the idea though, Wu didn’t look great against Edwards in her last fight. Plus for all the criticism of her, Montano’s beaten the better fighters.

I was ready to throw something on Barberena at -250 in a parlay or something due to Witt’s glass jaw, but then I find out he had some serious medical episode that I’d forgotten about and needed major surgery. Pass.

Anyone have any bright ideas?
 
Got yahya at +155
playing hall +185
Lawrence -200
Barberena -260

Yea paying the juice. Not much on this card
 
I see absolutely zero way that Hall wins a decision vs Strickland. I think Strickland's output is probably double Hall's on average (that's just me pulling it out my ass, I haven't looked up stats but that's at least the perception I have).

If Hall's KO line is steep enough, I might just pay the juice on Strickland's ML and hedge with Hall KO. But need to see what that Hall KO prop looks like.
 
UFC Vegas 33,
Saturday, July 31, 2021

Prelims: 6:00 pm eastern
Main card: 9:00 pm eastern

parlay +165

Nicco Montano -235
Bryan Barberena -270 "Bam Bam"
Rafa Garcia -280 "Gifted"

#UFCVegas33

Reading material I found:

............................
............................
(March 2021)
Rafa Garcia has gotten into the UFC the right way. He had a good amount of experience beforehand and tested himself against some good fighters. Garcia is a jiu-jitsu guy but likes to stand and trade. On the feet, what he does well is press forward, throw a massive looping overhand right, and just close the distance. I do see him having trouble closing the distance at times and getting picked apart from the outside. Garcia does not use the most effective footwork but instead follows his opponents.

His wrestling isn’t rated the highest, just because he doesn’t set up his takedowns. Garcia is good at just dropping down and grabbing a single leg. Most of the time he won’t complete the takedown on the first attempt but will at least push opponents against the cage and get it down from there. Garcia is a slick grappler and a very dangerous submission threat when he opens up. Sometimes Garcia will stall on top in full guard just holding position. The thing is, if you try to scramble, there’s a good chance he either takes an arm or takes your back. On his back, he is questionable as I’ve seen him get his back taken and controlled for a large portion of the fight.
  • Striking: C
  • Kickboxing: C+
  • Clinch: C+
  • Wrestling: B
  • Grappling: B+
  • Striking Defense: C+
  • Takedown Defense: B-
  • Cardio: B
  • Biggest Strength: Grappling
  • Biggest Weakness: Striking defense
............................
............................
Bryan Barberena:
An all-action pressure fighter, Bryan Barberena will force you to fight in a phone booth – whether you like it or not! With an iron chin, “Bam Bam” is prepared to walk through fire and make you trade with him on the inside. Has good low kicks. Barberena is seasoned in wars and although he lost to the likes of Colby Covington, Leon Edwards and Vicente Luque, his experience will be crucial. Bryan Barberena made his name with 3 upset wins in his first 4 Octagon appearances, including a submission of Sage Northcutt and decision over the then-unbeaten Warlley Alves. He is a southpaw and turned 32 in May 2021. (Jason Witt lost to southpaw Takashi Sato in June 2020)





Quote of the week, Sean Strickland:

“There is not much difference between MMA and p*rnnography. You’re appealing to the basic impulses of human beings who watch it and like and a part them gets off to it. But there’s nothing wrong with that. I love f*cking p*rn and I love fighting, man. I don’t like when these a**holes run around in suits and they make themselves seem like they are curing f*cking cancer. You’re locking yourself in a cage and getting punched in the f*cking face. You’re a dog. I’m a dog. Stop pretending to be something more than what you are. You’re a piece of meat used for entertainment. It’s one of those weird things to accept but it’s kinda the reality of it. I’m not knocking on the UFC, I f*cking love the UFC but it’s 14% of earnings as the NBA gets paid 50% to the players. When you get picked up in a limo and they rub your head and they make you feel like you’re a superstar. Meanwhile, on paper you’re kinda getting f*cked, understand that you’re a p**stitute and that’s exactly how you would treat a f*cking p**stitute

I consider Uriah Hall a friend of mine. Not only (did I train with him) at Xtreme Couture but also back in Reign when Mark Munoz was throwing down. I’ve trained with him a lot, he was actually a guy I didn’t really like to train with because he was kind of a f*cking d*ck. The things he threw were so dangerous and he had like no control of it. So, when you spar Uriah, you have to fight Uriah to shut that down. Uriah’s path to success is catching me. He’s a very dangerous man and if I f*ck up you’re gonna see me waking up on the canvas, that’s a likely possibility. My path to success it like cutting down a tree and I’m a f*cking axe, man. I just gotta keep hitting it over and over again, from round one to round five, just say in his face. And he knows that. Maybe (I’ll) throw in a takedown here and there. He knows that. He’s going to try and catch me and I’m going to try to beat him to death"

-Sean Strickland

Uriah Hall turns 37 years old on Saturday, July 31, 2021 and will have a 3.5 inch reach advantage
 
Last edited:
SolarSeiko said:
How shitty is Gloria if Buys is the favorite
Click to expand...

I don't think Buys striking is that bad. She looked aggressive and seemed to have some pop in the fight I saw her (think it was DWCS?) prior to her first UFC fight. I know nothing of this opponent Gloria, but if she's a striker with no threat of TD or top control I can understand the line I guess? Buys was clueless as to how to get out of that headlock thing that had her held down for basically her entire last fight, so yeah she's lost on the mat for sure.
 
mkess101 said:
I see absolutely zero way that Hall wins a decision vs Strickland. I think Strickland's output is probably double Hall's on average (that's just me pulling it out my ass, I haven't looked up stats but that's at least the perception I have).

If Hall's KO line is steep enough, I might just pay the juice on Strickland's ML and hedge with Hall KO. But need to see what that Hall KO prop looks like.
Click to expand...

He got outpointed by Anderson Silva for the first two rounds. Was a terrible look, to be honest.
 
SolarSeiko said:
How shitty is Gloria if Buys is the favorite
Click to expand...
She demonstrated the ability to easily get taken down and lay on her back for three rounds vs yu frey

Favorable matchup for buys, no way I’m laying chalk on her especially after her last performance

speaking of yu Frey, I’m tempted to play her vs Yoder. It’s a dog or pass fight. Odds aren’t juicy enough though. Not really interested
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
She demonstrated the ability to easily get taken down and lay on her back for three rounds vs yu frey

Favorable matchup for buys, no way I’m laying chalk on her especially after her last performance

speaking of yu Frey, I’m tempted to play her vs Yoder. It’s a dog or pass fight. Odds aren’t juicy enough though. Not really interested
Click to expand...

Not quite, de Paula took the second round and avoided takedowns, but she was put down in R1 and R3.

De Paula is a striker, Buys is a striker, it's not massively likely we'll see any other facets unless someone is desperate for a break on the feet - but I'd be very surprised if Buys had anything for De Paula in the clinch or on the ground should it go there. She looked absolutely hopeless in her last fight.

Buys throws with a lot of heat and is in pretty good shape, she didn't look tired in the boring Ruiz fight even though some other fighters might fade a little or lose heart. She actually offered to walk Ruiz home she had so much energy.

I think she could be a problem for de Paula, but then again de Paula is going to be the much more technical striker and could end up picking Buys apart. I guess if Buys has a PTV it's using her aggressive striking to wear de Paula down and getting a possible finish in R3 or taking over late on en route to cement a decision - but I'm not at all sure that's going to happen.

Buys really isn't very good, even when she's throwing everything into her striking it's just not as devastating as the visual/audio she puts out; she's fought weaker opposition than de Paula, she's a favourite ONLY because she's better known, otherwise their most recent losses are pretty similar - but I'd pick Frey to beat Ruiz any day of the weak, and de Paula took a clear round off her. The UFC want to put a bit of the hype machine behind Buys but I think they're going to struggle to find her winnable fights without bringing in some regional level fighters and pretending they're better than they are.

To me, everything points to a GDP win here.
 
Siver! said:
Not quite, de Paula took the second round and avoided takedowns, but she was put down in R1 and R3.
Click to expand...

You said 'Frey didn't try and take her down in R2' wrong.

There was nothing impressive in terms of her grappling defence that fight. Whenever Frey tried she got her down. Even cans like Padua beat her up and got TDs before. If Buys tries, which is likely given her wrestler husband and new camp, she can probably get easy TDs.
 
Jordan3399 said:
You said 'Frey didn't try and take her down in R2' wrong.

There was nothing impressive in terms of her grappling defence that fight. Whenever Frey tried she got her down. Even cans like Padua beat her up and got TDs before. If Buys tries, which is likely given her wrestler husband and new camp, she can probably get easy TDs.
Click to expand...

Hmm, not sure about using the 'wrestler husband and new camp' as a reason Buys will score takedowns. I'd rather see some evidence Buys is likely to use takedowns based on her own performances. This is a woman that didn't know what to do about a headlock takedown and looked out of her depth on the ground in said headlock. Low level is low level regardless of who you train with, and it's a bit like saying Ben Askren trained with Duke Roufus for years so he'll have developed good striking.
 
Siver! said:
Hmm, not sure about using the 'wrestler husband and new camp' as a reason Buys will score takedowns. I'd rather see some evidence Buys is likely to use takedowns based on her own performances. This is a woman that didn't know what to do about a headlock takedown and looked out of her depth on the ground in said headlock. Low level is low level regardless of who you train with, and it's a bit like saying Ben Askren trained with Duke Roufus for years so he'll have developed good striking.
Click to expand...
Sure there is a decent chance we get a split dec type striking match but it's Buys with the obvious win path that could make her look -500. If her camp is stupid enough to miss that then so be it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Dillydilly
  • Sportsbook Event
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis-Shortest Fight Of The Night 6:30pm ET 1-20
Replies
3
Views
349
SKYNET
SKYNET

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,236,671
Messages
55,433,365
Members
174,775
Latest member
kilgorevontrouty

Share this page

Back
Top