UFC Fight Night: Thompson Vs. Neal

Ballsaque

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Thoughts and picks?
 
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Thoughts and picks?


When did you pull those odds? Chimaev has been favored for awhile, you have the opening lines up there I think? The line has basically flipped, Chimaev around -160 now.

I like Tybura at current price over Hardy. Tybura has gone super wrestling heavy lately and Hardy's grappling is still rudimentary. I don't think he'll have answers, and I think Tybura saps his gas tank very quickly. If Hardy wins, it's rd 1 KO imo.
 
When did you pull those odds? Chimaev has been favored for awhile, you have the opening lines up there I think? The line has basically flipped, Chimaev around -160 now.

I like Tybura at current price over Hardy. Tybura has gone super wrestling heavy lately and Hardy's grappling is still rudimentary. I don't think he'll have answers, and I think Tybura saps his gas tank very quickly. If Hardy wins, it's rd 1 KO imo.

Yeh thats purpose.. can be interesting comparing with opening odds at times I think
 
I think Chimaev wins but man Edwards is tempting as a +150 dog.

He's a legit top 5 WW.
 
Chimaev via KO under 3 rounds
Vera via KO round 2
Khaos via KO round 1
Tafon via KO round 1
Arroyo Decision
Neal KO round 2

This card is
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Great card. Better than 255 and 256

Biggest bet of the year on Leon. Experience, level of competition, legitimate top 4 guy fighting a rookie. That rookie looks the goods but we are talking about +165 here on top 4 talent. Crazy

Even if you line it as a pick em which is assuming alot for Chimaev is big value on Leon. Given what we know i think should be -125 to -150. If im wrong, so be it, the kids the next Jones. Theres just too much value based on what we know. Everything else on chimaev is speculation
 
Great, great odds on wonderboy and aldo. Putting some on those as soon as my bookie has them. Glenn and muhammad are good parlay pieces and khaos and font are good dogs imo.

Hope chimaev's odds improve. Him at + money was a great bet. Awesome card
 
Great card. Better than 255 and 256

Biggest bet of the year on Leon. Experience, level of competition, legitimate top 4 guy fighting a rookie. That rookie looks the goods but we are talking about +165 here on top 4 talent. Crazy

Even if you line it as a pick em which is assuming alot for Chimaev is big value on Leon. Given what we know i think should be -125 to -150. If im wrong, so be it, the kids the next Jones. Theres just too much value based on what we know. Everything else on chimaev is speculation

Yeah Edwards as a dog is definitely the play for me. Chimaev obviously looked great so far, but his only real win so far is a 17 second fight against GM3 (nice finish but such a short fight against maybe a fringe top 30 MW doesn't really tell us a huge amount).

Edwards is a huge step up, his inactivity compared to Chimaevs recent 3 fights could be iffy, but also he's at the age where he also could have improved even more in that time. He's a legit top 5 WW so it'd a huge step up in competition -

The size difference could definitely factor in too, but I think the level of competition both have faced and how they've looked I'm more than happy to be on Edwards as a dog. It's such a huge step up in competition and with Edwards potentially not even in his prime yet I can't bet an unproven favourite against a legit title contender - even if he loses at these odds or even better I'm probably fine with it, at worst I'd just see it as proof that Chimaev is legit a special talent.
 
Yeah Edwards as a dog is definitely the play for me. Chimaev obviously looked great so far, but his only real win so far is a 17 second fight against GM3 (nice finish but such a short fight against maybe a fringe top 30 MW doesn't really tell us a huge amount).

Edwards is a huge step up, his inactivity compared to Chimaevs recent 3 fights could be iffy, but also he's at the age where he also could have improved even more in that time. He's a legit top 5 WW so it'd a huge step up in competition -

The size difference could definitely factor in too, but I think the level of competition both have faced and how they've looked I'm more than happy to be on Edwards as a dog. It's such a huge step up in competition and with Edwards potentially not even in his prime yet I can't bet an unproven favourite against a legit title contender - even if he loses at these odds or even better I'm probably fine with it, at worst I'd just see it as proof that Chimaev is legit a special talent.
The wrestling worries me. The brits can't wrestle even if Leon has good wrestling by their standards
His best win being RDA then Luque which also worries me a bit but the key here is getting Chimaev into the later rounds. He's just had it so easy that when he has to go through the fire, we'll really see what he's got.

Once he can't blast a guy out in 15 seconds or get an immediate TD and GnP, who knows, he may fade. It's easy being the hammer...

This shouldn't be higher than a pick em IMO even though Chimaev does look legit.
 
Khamzat has more power and the wrestling to cause Leon problems

Wish I got in on Khamzat at the opening line
 
I've seen quite a few people saying Leon will be the biggest bet of their life, I think its an interesting conversation in terms of what people are looking for to place the biggest bet of their life. Myself for example I have 5u on Leon as I see it as the clear 'value' side. For all reasons mentioned above and some. But I can't bet any further because there's simply to much unknown about khazmat, he could be an absolute beast. I wouldn't be shocked if khazmat wins but regardless of outcome I will feel i was on the right side with the top 5 contender with + money against unknown commodity. My personal criteria for biggest bet of my life is i like more of a "sure thing" for example my biggest bet of my life was chuck vs tito 3 I put a third of my bankroll 33u on tito. I watched a lot of footage before hand and clearly seen that chucks brain was just not firing. Anywho I guess my point is what is your criteria for biggest bet of your life? Would you rather have a better betting number with less certainty of winning? Or crappy betting number but good certainty of winning? For example just some loose numbers and win rate percentage, is obviously based on what you perceive the win percentage to be not what it actually is
Fighter A +200 with 80% win rate
Fighter B -300 with 98% win rate
Sorry for long post just bored and thinking
 
I've seen quite a few people saying Leon will be the biggest bet of their life, I think its an interesting conversation in terms of what people are looking for to place the biggest bet of their life. Myself for example I have 5u on Leon as I see it as the clear 'value' side. For all reasons mentioned above and some. But I can't bet any further because there's simply to much unknown about khazmat, he could be an absolute beast. I wouldn't be shocked if khazmat wins but regardless of outcome I will feel i was on the right side with the top 5 contender with + money against unknown commodity. My personal criteria for biggest bet of my life is i like more of a "sure thing" for example my biggest bet of my life was chuck vs tito 3 I put a third of my bankroll 33u on tito. I watched a lot of footage before hand and clearly seen that chucks brain was just not firing. Anywho I guess my point is what is your criteria for biggest bet of your life? Would you rather have a better betting number with less certainty of winning? Or crappy betting number but good certainty of winning? For example just some loose numbers and win rate percentage, is obviously based on what you perceive the win percentage to be not what it actually is
Fighter A +200 with 80% win rate
Fighter B -300 with 98% win rate
Sorry for long post just bored and thinking

Your A bet has an implied probability of 80% to win, so the implied line should be -400, using standard kelly it tells you to bet 70% of your bankroll on the bet.
Fighter B -300 with a 98% winrate, the implied odds for this combination should be around -4900.. If you use standard Kelly, this tells you to bet 91,94% of your bankroll on the bet, so I'm guessing this one probably constitutes a good candidate for the biggest bet of your life. Though i suppose both might be.
 
My main concern might be that Edwards hasn't fought for 1,5 years, other than that it should be at least a pick'em fight, which makes Edwards at underdog odds a value pick.

There are too many factors that might work against Chimaev: for one, Edwards might be simply the better fighter, for two, we don't know how Chimaev reacts to adversity and potentially a longer fight.
 
"Khazmat has more power"

If it were to stay standing, do people really think Khazmat is going to KO Leon?

Like damn man, I see Khazmat's paths to victory, and if he wins, I will never doubt him again.

But to tout him as the better standup fighter is fucking ludicrous. I'll break down this fight closer to it.
 
i think the people who keep saying there's a lot of unknowns about chimaev haven't seen his fights before the UFC. He has a gas tank. He has pretty good wrestling. His stand up is pretty good.

I'm avoiding this fight either way, too many unknown variables regarding Leon as well. Maybe he got even better this past year like Ortega did, or maybe ring rust will be a factor.
 
i think the people who keep saying there's a lot of unknowns about chimaev haven't seen his fights before the UFC. He has a gas tank. He has pretty good wrestling. His stand up is pretty good.

I'm avoiding this fight either way, too many unknown variables regarding Leon as well. Maybe he got even better this past year like Ortega did, or maybe ring rust will be a factor.

I've seen his fights. He is legit.

But I think Edwards is the better MMA fighter, and it will show over 5 rounds.

Edwards was competitive with Usman(and since then his grappling has gotten A LOT better).

Edwards is better in the clinch, which will be a huge factor. He has better technical striking. His gas tank is proven over 5 rounds versus killers.

Maybe he's improved so much since then, he takes down Edwards in round 1 and finishes him.

I don't see it though, and at pretty decent +odds, as much as I, and the UFC, genuinely dislike Rocky -- he's the play.
 
I've seen quite a few people saying Leon will be the biggest bet of their life, I think its an interesting conversation in terms of what people are looking for to place the biggest bet of their life. Myself for example I have 5u on Leon as I see it as the clear 'value' side. For all reasons mentioned above and some. But I can't bet any further because there's simply to much unknown about khazmat, he could be an absolute beast. I wouldn't be shocked if khazmat wins but regardless of outcome I will feel i was on the right side with the top 5 contender with + money against unknown commodity. My personal criteria for biggest bet of my life is i like more of a "sure thing" for example my biggest bet of my life was chuck vs tito 3 I put a third of my bankroll 33u on tito. I watched a lot of footage before hand and clearly seen that chucks brain was just not firing. Anywho I guess my point is what is your criteria for biggest bet of your life? Would you rather have a better betting number with less certainty of winning? Or crappy betting number but good certainty of winning? For example just some loose numbers and win rate percentage, is obviously based on what you perceive the win percentage to be not what it actually is
Fighter A +200 with 80% win rate
Fighter B -300 with 98% win rate
Sorry for long post just bored and thinking
Biggest bet of my life was Floyd over Conor, as im sure many people will say the same. That will never happen again getting 1.34 odds for something that should have been 1.01
 
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