UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Vettori

[Sono07]

Vettori looks like he just sucked on a lemon, and Holland looks like he's looking at a Roscoe's dinner menu.

Vettori looking at Holland like he is on the Roscoe's dinner menu

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Holland looked more focused.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Mike "Platinum Papa" Perry sounding much more cerebral than I've ever heard him. Not only did he make weight with no trouble early he isn't even going to eat his beloved fried chicken until after the fight.

Taking parenting tips from the Nunes couple as well. Hopefully he has polished his boxing but the man appears to be in great shape. Any reason Mike shouldn't be able to double leg Drod at anytime? Mike is a fairly under rated offensive wrestler with solid power.

He got takedowns but did nothing with it, perhaps even pooped himself out, during the Means fight. Being in better shape etc should help, and that's also a concern for me being in DRods side.

 

[Sono07]

He got takedowns but did nothing with it, perhaps even pooped himself out, during the Means fight. Being in better shape etc should help, and that's also a concern for me being in DRods side.

Yeah I lost money on him in that last one against Means. At least a small live bet. He definitely shit the bed but prefight I realized his training was terrible in that last fight. Guy let his personal life get in the way for sure. His conditioning and pace are concerns. I'm not crazy betting anything on Perry but he is hard to bet against in full form. Lackluster in his last two fights but the guy is young, intense, powerful, and usually swings hammers from bell to bell, sneaky good wrestler too.

He has an attribute/xfactor I think of as grit or fight for your money quality. I think it will be a great fight but my read is Perry won't stop trying to fight or pressure unless he gets stopped. I'll probably just play his no scorecard line but I like him to at least not get stopped here. Dude is a wildcard, hard to gauge at times but I think the ace could be high instead of low here.

 

[orgazmo]

Jesus, how the fuck do those two weigh the same?

 

[Sono07]

@Foghorn Leghorn
I forgot to add that Perry still doesn't have a full corner here. That is worrisome for me still. DRod could totally win this just by having a better gameplan and more stable team. Not sure which way this will go but it could be one of the most closely contested entertaining fights of the night for sure.

 

[Sono07]

Jesus, how the fuck do those two weigh the same?

I'm no huge fan of Jung but physics exist for a reason. Knight probably needs to grapple to win and Jung has a great chance to blast his chin off his shoulders before he can in my opinion.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

@Foghorn Leghorn
I forgot to add that Perry still doesn't have a full corner here. That is worrisome for me still. DRod could totally win this just by having a better gameplan and more stable team. Not sure which way this will go but it could be one of the most closely contested entertaining fights of the night for sure.

I'm curious to see what happens, because it's an interesting two sides we have here. I don't think nearly as highly of Perry as you do, but I can see why you (and plenty of others) hold the opinion

 

[ballsackarino]

Nina Ansaroff to win by finish: NO @ 1.20 / -500. Yeah sure it looks like a big number, but what am I missing here? 20% return for betting on any outcome other than Nina inside the distance, seems like it's miss-priced even at this number. The odds imply that Nina is 17% to get a finish or Dern to get an injury. Nina is is not subbing Dern, and she has virtually 0 power to end it on the feet, barring a well timed headkick. Somebody talk me out of max betting this.

 

[longway]

Yeah I lost money on him in that last one against Means. At least a small live bet. He definitely shit the bed but prefight I realized his training was terrible in that last fight. Guy let his personal life get in the way for sure. His conditioning and pace are concerns. I'm not crazy betting anything on Perry but he is hard to bet against in full form. Lackluster in his last two fights but the guy is young, intense, powerful, and usually swings hammers from bell to bell, sneaky good wrestler too.

He has an attribute/xfactor I think of as grit or fight for your money quality. I think it will be a great fight but my read is Perry won't stop trying to fight or pressure unless he gets stopped. I'll probably just play his no scorecard line but I like him to at least not get stopped here. Dude is a wildcard, hard to gauge at times but I think the ace could be high instead of low here.

I'm big on a Drod/Solecki parlay. Even at his best Perry had trouble with anyone with decent footwork and a good jab. Perry's best PTV is grappling, but I think Drod has decent TDD and can handle himself there too. I might play a R3 prop on Drod, he could sneak in a choke if Perry is gassed and panic wrestles.

 

[Stat_Collector]

@Foghorn Leghorn
I forgot to add that Perry still doesn't have a full corner here. That is worrisome for me still. DRod could totally win this just by having a better gameplan and more stable team. Not sure which way this will go but it could be one of the most closely contested entertaining fights of the night for sure.

Perry had a hard time with Tim Mean's jab cross. D Rod is gonna pick him apart even worst. D rod is Means 2.0, people only giving Perry a chance cause he had that split loss to Luque. But Luque and Perry match up stylistically , they are muay thai based fighters who throw lots of hooks,elbows,knees, leg kicks etc. But when both guys ran into straight punching boxers : Luque vs wonderboy Thompson or Perry vs Means, they both feel victim to the long reach and steady jab, they dont have the slipping counter technique or elusiveness to beat these type of range fighters.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

I'm big on a Drod/Solecki parlay. Even at his best Perry had trouble with anyone with decent footwork and a good jab. Perry's best PTV is grappling, but I think Drod has decent TDD and can handle himself there too. I might play a R3 prop on Drod, he could sneak in a choke if Perry is gassed and panic wrestles.

I'm with you on Solecki, but I think there's better parlay fodder on this card than Drod.

Perry looked to be in better shape, Drod isn't a world beater by any means. That being said, if I didn't get Perry at +155, I wouldn't play him at the current price.

Gamrot/Shore/Vettori are all much safer parlay pieces imo.

I just made a r3 play on Shore @ +1200. Azure always gasses hard, I think he wins rd1 and Shore takes over.

 

[longway]

I'm with you on Solecki, but I think there's better parlay fodder on this card than Drod.

Perry looked to be in better shape, Drod isn't a world beater by any means. That being said, if I didn't get Perry at +155, I wouldn't play him at the current price.

Gamrot/Shore/Vettori are all much safer parlay pieces imo.

I just made a r3 play on Shore @ +1200. Azure always gasses hard, I think he wins rd1 and Shore takes over.

I'm gutted the way the price went. I should have known it could only flip the other way. I would play Drod alone at -125. Agreed that DRod is not a world-beater, but neither is Griffin, and Neal has been exposed as not ready for high-level strikers. Every time Perry has faced a guy with a decent jab and some footwork he has been picked apart. I hope history repeats itself. When I made the parlay, it was still Till. I like Shore for sure , I got in on him early at -135.

I still think Drod is good value, but Perry looking so much more settled its unsettling, fatherhood suits him I guess.

Hope the better fighter on the night wins.

 

[Bakayoko]

I had to watch his fight again, he defenetly has holes in his game. Leaves chin over exposed , doesn’t lift his dukes high enough. I have to admit it is a value bet and nothing more . a roll of the dice. this fight can go the other way , or will , but there is enough there to pick sasha. A decent history in other combat sports. A still decent win against a similar style opponent . Fighting in his natural weight. Much more fluent kicker. And the fact is Impa is not near a power hitter As sasha’s last opponent, he is also much more passive, i can see a scenario where sasha just sticks and moves his way into a decision or gets into a tough brawl scrap and wins a close split decision. Its defenetly a high risk bet but very valuable if won.

Well,watching a few matches of both fighters I'm not that high on Impa as I was,I see your point in Impas low volume and Sasha's kicks.However,Palatnikov gets hits hit way too much for me to play him even though we are not sure how Impa looks after that KO.

 

[Sono07]

Perry had a hard time with Tim Mean's jab cross. D Rod is gonna pick him apart even worst. D rod is Means 2.0, people only giving Perry a chance cause he had that split loss to Luque. But Luque and Perry match up stylistically , they are muay thai based fighters who throw lots of hooks,elbows,knees, leg kicks etc. But when both guys ran into straight punching boxers : Luque vs wonderboy Thompson or Perry vs Means, they both feel victim to the long reach and steady jab, they dont have the slipping counter technique or elusiveness to beat these type of range fighters.

Drod gets his chin touched alot. Decent jab but the guy is no master of the slip and counter. Before the Dalby fight he was nearly tkoed and managed a come from behind win. A different ref and he would have suffered at tko loss. Even Dalby even he was hurt in r1.

DRod is a decent boxer but he doesn't blend much else into his game. Perry is the more well rounded fighter here from his kicking game to his wrestling, couple that with his grit and I like him to win here. Could be a flawed read but Drod just hasn't impressed me and at Rodriguez's age I think Perry still has the higher skill ceiling of the two.

 

[Sono07]

For someone who trains with Cowboy Drod sucks at blocking high kicks. That and wrestling, if Dalby can control Drod in the clinch Perry most definitely can. Significant differences in grappling skill and athleticism between Perry and Drod.

 

[Sono07]

Any thoughts on Danho? Yorgan always seems to almost stop fighting in r3. I know it's HW but De Castro probably shouldn't be a 3 to favorite over anyone.

 

[sonhow]

Any thoughts on Danho? Yorgan always seems to almost stop fighting in r3. I know it's HW but De Castro probably shouldn't be a 3 to favorite over anyone.

That Danho vs Columubo fight might be second worst fight in ufc for past ten years after Punk/Jackson. Castro seems to be getting worse and worse but at least Felipe seems okay in hindsight and Hardy has power and speed.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Drod gets his chin touched alot. Decent jab but the guy is no master of the slip and counter. Before the Dalby fight he was nearly tkoed and managed a come from behind win. A different ref and he would have suffered at tko loss. Even Dalby even he was hurt in r1.

DRod is a decent boxer but he doesn't blend much else into his game. Perry is the more well rounded fighter here from his kicking game to his wrestling, couple that with his grit and I like him to win here. Could be a flawed read but Drod just hasn't impressed me and at Rodriguez's age I think Perry still has the higher skill ceiling of the two.

Meh I thought he got robbed in that fight. And Dalby is a different fighter than perry. He has that sort of Karate machida style. Perry has decent power but he needs a decision win , I don't see him finishing him. While I can imagine Daniel getting the ko or decision as perry has been finished before most recently. If Perry does get the finish it would be a huge shock.

 

[Sono07]

Meh I thought he got robbed in that fight. And Dalby is a different fighter than perry. He has that sort of Karate machida style. Perry has decent power but he needs a decision win , I don't see him finishing him. While I can imagine Daniel getting the ko or decision as perry has been finished before most recently. If Perry does get the finish it would be a huge shock.

I won't be too shocked to see it. Did you see Drod get everything but KOed against Grant? If Grant hadn't blown his gas he had Rodriguez dead to rights there. Even afterwards Rodriguez was just swinging hooks in the pocket and eating shots. I like DRod's boxing but the man will brawl and he can be pretty sloppy all around.