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UFC Fight Night - Waterson vs Rodriguez.. Maybe? Offical discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by 2020Tracked, May 2, 2021.

  1. 2020Tracked Green Belt

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    Screenshot_20210502-135022_Chrome.jpg

    Not offical yet but it's looking like the replacement for Dillashaw vs Sandhagen will be Waterson vs Rodriguez... So, let's talk about it

    Not actually a bad card really but it could really do with a proper main event.
     
    DabanggData likes this.
  2. 2020Tracked Green Belt

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    Early leans - Klein, Nchukwi, Harris, De Lima, Benoit, Daukaus, Gillespie, Neal, Hill, Lins, Rodriguez

    Early into tape so all of these are liable to change
     
    DabanggData likes this.
  3. Captain Chesapeake Green Belt

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    Lines are not great

    except magny
     
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  4. Init2winit White Belt

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    Looks like a tough card to call!
     
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  5. ballsackarino White Belt

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    I like Carlston a lot in this matchup. He's a big guy for the division, gonna have a decent size advantage over Aguilera. He's a grinding wrestler with good cardio to sustain a pace. Values position over submission. His striking isn't anything to write home about, has decent power. The guy trains in Brazil so he has some jits. And he seems extremely motivated, Dana signed this guy on his looking for a fight series and I remember how badly he wanted the contract. I got him at evens, but i still think even at the current price it's a good bet.

    https://ok.ru/video/2022464621065

    That's his latest fight.
     
    matthew55, 2020Tracked and Broe. like this.
  6. 2020Tracked Green Belt

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    Yeah I'm on Carlston for two units
     
  7. Post 2 Decision Gold Belt

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    Hill at + money is interesting
     
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  8. svmr_db Purple Belt

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    My initial lean is Jun Yong Park could be a great underdog for this card. Tafon Nchukwi is super green and making his debut coming from the contender series. I think he has potential but if Jun can survive (never been KO'd) the initial onslaught he should be able to grind him out. Will have to watch some tape this week.
     
  9. rille31 Brown Belt

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    He already made his debute, this is his second ufc fight.
     
  10. svmr_db Purple Belt

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    Ahhh my bad. I saw that fight as well. Still think Park is a very live dog.
     
  11. GoldenWolf87 Brown Belt

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    Looks like another good card.I really like the co event.
     
  12. Captain Chesapeake Green Belt

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    He’s got a good chin on him. He will need against nchukwi. Nchukwi is low volume so yea park is probably a good dog. Don’t know if I’ll play it though
     
  13. ballsackarino White Belt

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    I drunk bet Park for 1 unit while browsing the lines. I'm sitting there thinking Park has wrestlefuck potential, Tafon is a Dana White's Tomato Can series alumni, and these guys lose regularly. I've seen so many of the tomato can series bum be -150 favourites against guys with more experience.

    But now in hindsight I'm not that confident because Tafon is a freak and has a significant size advantage over Park. Park also likes to exchange in the pocket and there's a big power differential here.

    I kinda lean Tafon at the moment.
     
  14. guesswhoseback Blue Belt

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    Nchuki-Dec
    Benoit-KO2
    Aguilera-KO2
    Trizano-Dec
    Hawes-Dec
    Rothwell-KO2
    Ribas-Dec
    Ferreria-Dec
    De Lima-KO1
    Neal-KO2
    Rodriguez-Dec
     
  15. theTKDguy Red Belt

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    Mmmm i think i'll pass this card, there's better opportunities in 262 (fdgtd, under2.5 in the ME, leon, barboza). I do like gillespie and neal but price isn't sexy enough.
     
  16. Screenshot_20210502-013406.jpg
    Pretty much the 3 fighters I have leans on.

    I think the lines may improve, especially on Neal, so I probably should've waited.

    I'll end up playing Gregor dec, and the other 2 MLs straight as well.
     
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  17. Macaque Blue Belt

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    Hey brother, what’s your reasoning on Gillespie? I haven’t taped yet and it’d be great to have something to watch for. I’ve been thinking of laying some money on Diego so I’m wondering what’re your thoughts on why Gregor should be a 1.57 fav.
     
  18. Gregor is one of the best wrestlers and grapplers in the division.

    He should be able to do what Dariush did, maybe even better.

    He's absolutely relentless with his takedowns, and has great top pressure/BJJ. His cardio is also insanely good, far better than Fereirra's.

    I could see Fereirra possibly winning round 1, as Gregor isn't as strong of a starter as Dariush.

    But Gregor is top 5 @ LW imo. Controversial opinion, but aside from the Lee KO, he's never been knocked out, and presents an array of problems to everyone in the division.
     
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  19. guesswhoseback Blue Belt

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    Since you want to call me out on every post u make I feel a Dam/LOL moment coming
     
  20. ExitLUPin K

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    I like Ferreira as a dog here. Gregor isnt on Dariush level specially in the standup. He was biting on Lees feints all night and hes struggled with Jason Gonzalez in the past. Yeah that was years ago but Yancy is the only relevant fighter hes beaten besides Sidney Outlaw who arguably beat him and had him back mounted when he was saved by the bell. I think CDFs BJJ is gonna give him fits too and nothing from Gregor out of cage suggest to me hes pursuing MMA that seriously. Long periods of inactivity, always posting about fishing

    I like Lins even odds against Ben too. Rothwell is absolutely shot from his power, to conditioning to overall skills. His formidable chin has started to crack some as well
     
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