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UFC Fight Night - Waterson vs Rodriguez.. Maybe? Offical discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by 2020Tracked, May 2, 2021.

  1. Sono07 Brown Belt

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    Watching Park try and completely dominate Tafon with his wrestling, boring pick but I wouldn't be surprised. No real idea on that one though, I might just have to pass this whole card.
     
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  2. Captain Chesapeake Green Belt

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    6pm et
     
  3. Card Silver Belt

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    Heard a podcast saying Park has a staph infection?.. . it was taped up at the weigh in



    [​IMG]
     
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  4. sonhow Silver Belt

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    I favor Marina to win the fight myself but if its even little bit close do not be surprised if Michelle get's the split dec from the judges.
     
  5. Brockstar Orange Belt

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    Greene round 3 is +2800 on 365
     
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  6. letmebangbrah Green Belt

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    Fight's cancelled
     
  7. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Wait what? The ME is cancelled now too??? I saw Ribas/Hill was cancelled, now another one?
     
  8. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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    ME not cancelled
     
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  9. I faded Greene in every fight he's had, and I just put 0.3u on him ITD, may God forgive me
     
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  10. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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    you win if he survives 5 mins but that's the big question
     
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  11. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    He's so bad...but if he survives rd 1 and isn't beaten to the point of being a borderline corpse he probably becomes the favorite given De Lima's historically bad gas tank.
     
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  12. They're both so bad and inconsistent, I think this fight should be a coin flip, and will almost certainly end itd, so +310 has value
     
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  13. Zakk Lanphear White Belt

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    I'm late to the party but he are my predictions before the card begins

    Bets up front

    1. Phil Hawes +118

    2. Harris + Gillespie +153

    3. Rodriguez + Cerrone +110

    4. Park + Klein +180
    Analysis

    Aguilera v Heston: Aguilera has so much of what you look for in someone on the surface. Athletic and twitchy with natural, if not slightly wide, head movement. Quick active feet that cut angles well and pair with his overall dynamic rhythm. He pumps a good double jab and has the kind of vocabulary of strikes that typically only good strikers have. He hides his kicks behind strikes, throws straight punches to the body and has a slick hook. Pair all that with great volume, cardio, opportunistic grappling and a decent chin and you should have a decent fighter. The issue is so much of it is noncommittal. He suffers from what I call “sparring syndrome” where a fighter looks fantastic in a vacuum but it falls apart when they need to execute against a fighter that has any kind of meanness.

    This is especially visible in how accentuated his feints are vs the venom in his strikes. His feints are overactive and dangling in a way that functions well in the gym when your partner is also throwing 50% but get punished quickly by a fighter who is willing to risk eating a shot, especially one that rarely seems to come. The other area it’s particularly noticeable is in his guard and head movement that while appearing active, are broken immediately when real shots come back. I really appreciate how well he uses steps instead of leans to avoid damage and get in on his own strikes and if he can develop a mean streak, he could genuinely be a great action fighter but without it I think he’ll struggle against anyone with killer instinct and the cardio to keep up with him.

    Tape on Harris is hard to find. I had to watch Looking for a Fight, twitter clips and years old fights to piece together who he is. One thing is clear though and it’s that he is here to fight. Neither guy is a wrestler, both preferring tenacity and athleticism to score takedowns but Harris is absolutely a grappler with tremendous timing and instincts on when and how to use locks and leverage. Aguilera has a bully blue belt mentality combining a little technique like knowing to not flatten on his back, his pressuring deep half top game and how to survive rudimentary subs but mostly relies on grit and activity to grapple offensively and defensively. Harris inversely actually has a submission inventory, a feel for where his opponent is moving in relation to himself and has a preferred takedown method that he’s highly comfortable in with the body lock. Most of all he has an all-business mentality in the cage. The man is clearly in there with a game plan and an attitude that screams “I’m here to do my job and get paid.”

    I wouldn’t be shocked if Aguilera won a round. He’s the much more technical striker, the more explosive athlete and likely has better cardio. I would be surprised if he won however unless he’s made dramatic changes to his in cage attitude or takedown defense. Harris is going to attempt to wrestle him from bell to bell and Harris likely will not be able to stop him from doing so for any real length of time. He has to punish Aguilera when he does stuff a shot and I just don’t think he’ll be able to. Aguilera has a very difficult to time rhythm to his movements and a conservative guard that makes a KO difficult for most fighters, much less a non-committal one. The opportunity is there when Harris lunges and if Aguilera was willing to drop the bomb of a hook he has on that, it’d be a big step forward from his typical aggression. Without good takedown defense or a killer instinct to punish with the time he is on the feet though, I just don’t see a path to victory short of Harris falling off a cliff cardio wise. I see this likely being a submission or a 29-28 at worst victory for Harris.


    Park v Nchukwi

    I think this is a particularly difficult matchup for Tafon that would be so much easier if a few things were different. If he threw leg kicks he’d be able to corral Park to the fence, but he doesn’t throw any. If his best weapons weren’t his body and high kick, he wouldn’t be losing them to the threat of a caught kick. If Park utilized the clinch for his takedowns instead of reactive shots, he’d have a much better chance of stopping them. Tafon is much better than pundits give him credit, he is plodding but he cuts the cage well. His strike selection is diverse and his timing is great. His work against the cage in regards to posts, wrangling combos and clinch grappling is elite and for how jacked he is, his cardio is solid.
    That said, this just isn’t the matchup for him. His upright Muay thai stance, reliance on the elbow guard and slow feet almost guarantee he’s getting taken down in space. Park is too good at mixing it up from his stance and has shown he’s keen on taking the path of least resistance. He isn’t a natural wrestler by any means and does rely on driving his opponents but there’s simply too many opportunities here for him to not ground Tafon. Even in a strictly stand up affair, it would be a very close fight. Park blends a traditional martial arts background with boxing too well to be tracked down and KO’d. His ability to haras It’s certainly possible for someone with Tafon’s power and instinct but I don’t think it’s likely at all.

    I see this fight growing farther apart with each round. Tafon could keep the first competitive, especially if he’s able to angle Park to the fence, though this is a monstrous task. Once Park grounds him though, his cardio system won’t keep up and the footwork and speed advantage on the feet will grow quickly in Park’s favor. Tafon absolutely needs to keep this upright and force Park to become predictable with his entries if he wants to win, something I don’t see happening. Park doesn’t look to finish but with his commitment to taking the back I wouldn’t be stunned by a rear naked here. My prediction is a clear decision win.

    Klein v Trizano

    It’s been two years since we’ve seen Trizano so he could look very very different. His past fights aren’t going to be a great indicator of who he is now or his approach to the fight. Two years is just an incredible time to go without fighting. If he’s somehow developed into a technical wrestler, he’s got a decent chance of winning. That’s the only type of fighter I see beating Klein at this echelon though. If you aren’t at least threatening with a good shot, followed up by some UFC level chain wrestling, you’re in for a tough time. His ability to slide out of danger and keep people at the very end of his range, pivot with lightning speed into his preferred head on angle and cooly analyze his opponents movement while planning how to intercept them make him a nightmare matchup for most pure strikers. Notwithstanding his honed 1-2’s, harassing jab or signature high kick. The guy is a through and through kickboxer who’s waiting like a samurai to catch his opponent in the wrong spot so he can slice through them.

    I normally wouldn’t recommend betting a fight like this where 1 guy lacks offensive grappling and is a large favorite, especially with a big question mark on who the other fighter currently is. That said, I’d be pretty stunned if Trizano developed the kind of grappling he needs to regularly floor Klein. Klein’s range management alone makes taking him down difficult with his exceptional balance and understanding of how to scramble included, I think you’ll need a dedicated base in grappling to really punish him. Mixing it in just won’t be enough to make up for the levels difference in kickboxing or athleticism.

    Trizano has never been finished and Klein is content being patient so I wouldn’t be too surprised with a decision win, even a close one if Trizano can somehow make it gritty. All in all though a finish wouldn’t surprise anyone and the longer this fight goes the more Klein is going to put together his reads and eventually square Trizano up with something nasty. My prediction is Klein by 3rd rd finish.

    Hawes v Daukus

    The kind of fearless power striking and high level wrestling Hawes has is very difficult to counter. It’s definitely doable if you have the cardio, power and most importantly the discipline to punish it. Kyle has made strides in becoming a more disciplined fighter and I think he has a long career ahead of him. His ability to mix up flurries, clinches and takedowns is excellent. He has natural outside movement and a flowing ground game. I wish he’d hang out deeper in range more as it’s really the strength of his striking. Once he drifting into boxing range more he loses all of his head movement and opts for very average 1-2’s. These tend to hit the opponent but leave him very open for counters.

    The biggest thing going against him in this matchup is his need to grapple. We’ve seen high level wrestlers have bad takedown defense before but Hawe’s bricked up frame and reckless striking leads me to believe that won’t be the case. Daukause’s defense isn’t good enough to flirt with boxing range here or he’s gonna find himself clipped or get the shit kicked out of his legs in a hurry. He has a big cardio advantage and throws the straighter more accurate shots but lacks a lot of power. If he is able to beat Hawes in the grappling department, especially in the clinch or even just getting a single takedown, it’ll go a long way.

    He’s also going to struggle not being on the front foot as Hawes tends to dominate forward momentum. If Kyle can embrace the outfight he potentially could just outquick Hawe’s rudimentary pressure, though the low kick makes it difficult. All in all I think it’s a narrow needle that Kyle has to thread with a lot of deficiencies going against him. He needs to actively stuff takedowns when he likes to grapple heavily, avoid power shots while not possessing a lot of defense and stay at probing range where he has his biggest advantage. Possible, but I believe unlikely, unless he really gets his own grappling going. My prediction is a 1st round finish for Hawes.

    Fights I taped but didn't have enough time for an adequate writeup but will write a blurb about

    Gillespie v CDF: CDF, like many high level BJJ players, has terrible takedown defense because he invites the ground. His striking is hyper upright and revolves around blitzes and single shots. In short, Gillespie should ground him at will unless he's a shell of himself. His shots are hyper fluid, his boxing is functional and his choke vocabulary, float passing and excellent top pressure show his overall grappling should be off the level to keep him out of trouble. I'd be very surprised if CDF didn't gas out before the end of the second and absolutely surprised if he won. Gillespie by 3rd round finish is my prediction.

    Cerrone v Morono: Cerrone loses to athletic, technical, pressure fighters. If you don't have all 3 you're going to likely get your shit pushed in. Niko was able to get by on his obscene athleticsim and it shoes the kind of edge Cerrone is losing on his reflexes, I was genuinely shocked Cerrone at the heat he did and kept going. That said Morono can replicate approximately zero of anything that's ever troubled Cowboy. His striking is high volume but lacking power and any technical tissue to hold it all together. His BJJ is very solid but he doesn't have the wrestling to implement it and his TDD won't hold up against Cerrone's reactive shots. He's simply outclassed everywhere this fight can go and only holds an edge in output but I don't that'll last as soon as Cerrone dials him in and begins landing at will, likely by the mid second at the latest. Without real firepower and setups to go along with his pressure, I just don't see how Morono wins unless Cerrone is absolutely washed. Cerrone by decision is the prediction.

    Rodriguez v Waterson: Waterson is an atomweight, plain and simple. She can win fights at strawweight but it'll always be an uphill battle. Her hoppy karate stance mixed with rudimentary clinch takedowns allow her to control the probing and clinch range but she consistently falters in boxing range. Unable to properly range her strikes, her raw volume allows her to appear more effective than she actually is. She's running into a nightmare matchup here against Marina. A long, quick footed striker who can lead as well as intercept with power. Her TDD leaves a lot to be desired but this won't be something Waterson will be able to punish. Landing the type of hip throws she does against a longer, more athletic opponent is going to be very difficult, if she can even regularly close the range to do so. Moreso she won't be able to finish if it does hit the mat, meaning she'll need to climb that mountain for at least 3 rounds without getting absolutely smashed in any of them. I Love Waterson, her personality and even her style but I just don't think that's a doable request. My prediction is Marina by 4th round finish .
     
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  14. johno White Belt

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    I agree but I am considering a small amount on Greene inside the distance. De lima is almost just as likely to fumble in the moment
     
  15. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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  16. orgazmo Purple Belt

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    I'm not sure how, but I wish I could bet in a way that would fade both of them
     
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  17. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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    fdgtd
     
  18. OuterDrake Orange Belt

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    I think Figgy is worn, he also missed weight, statistically missing weight is always a bad sign.

    Your boy going down, d1 wrestlers are elite.
     
  19. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Missing by that much maybe, maybe not. Depends if he just gave up early, it can be an advantage. He missed by a lot, which says maybe he didn't deplete himself at all. But who knows? Gregor is incredibly heavy on top, so it honestly may not matter.

    My point was just that as good as Gregor's grappling has looked, he's never faced a guy with the grappling chops of CDF.
     
  20. letmebangbrah Green Belt

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    Lol that’s my bad had a friend tell me the wrong fight was cancelled
     
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