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UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Gastelum

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by svmr_db, Apr 10, 2021.

  1. svmr_db Purple Belt

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  2. DonQ94 Green Belt

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    Holy cow. The line on Lupita Godinez seems crazy to me. I've seen her fight in LFA and I think she is one of the better WMMA prospects out there. She has solid boxing, is very physical and powerful for a wmma fighter and has a good wrestling base as well.
    Her fight against Demopolous is a must see btw.
     
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2021
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  3. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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    Crazy as in it should be wider?
     
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  4. DonQ94 Green Belt

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    Lol never mind, it's early and I didn't realise it was a mistake on Best Fight Odds. The actual odds seem to be accurate. <{CMPALM}>
     
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  5. sonhow Silver Belt

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    Will this be the time Andrei Arlovski actually closes as a favorite? Last time would be vs Mir in 2015 and after that you would have to go to his wsof days to find him as the favorite.
     
  6. bendoman White Belt

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    -239 seems like a great price for Whittaker
     
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2021
  7. rille31 Brown Belt

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    You think he wins this 75-80% of the time?
     
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  8. bendoman White Belt

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    Yes
     
  9. Broe. Brown Belt

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    i dont really see why Jeremy Stephens is favored over Klose. I think people are forgetting he is moving up a weight class.
     
  10. ballsackarino White Belt

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    Drakkar isn't a particularly big LW. 5'9 70in reach, same as Jeremy. Drakkar's boxing defence isn't anything to right home about, he backs up in straight lines and he keeps his hands low when exchanging in the pocket. He brawled with Dariush and got chinned. You can't brawl with Jeremy Stephens like that. The fight is also taking place in the small cage, this favours the brawler.

    Drakkar also heavy on the lead leg, he likes to be the one walking forward in his fights, and he certainly won't be able to walk forward against Jeremy unless he wants his chin checked. He just has these moments in pretty much all his fights where he starts brawling like a retard. That's exactly the fight Stephens wants. And he does this all while he has a full gas tank. In round 3 he's gonna be sucking wind and his defence will be even worse. He was thoroughly gassed in round 3 against Giagos.

    On top of that Drakkar gets taken down in like every fight he's in. Jeremy can get a TD if the opportunity presents himself. I guess I really don't rate Drakkar that highly.

    Stephens has like 4 losses in a row but if you look at them closely it's not that bad of a losing streak. He had a competitive first round with Kattar, which he won. Kattar has an awesome jab, something that Drakkar does not, so Kattar was able to adjust in round 2 and keep Jeremy at range. He lost to Yair 2-1, showed us that he is able to grind if it's necessary. He lost to Zabit which is not really relevant to this match up with Drakkar. And he lost to Jose Aldo, again, it's Aldo, much higher level striker than Klose.

    I got Stephens at 1.80. The current price is a little too high imo.
     
  11. OuterDrake Orange Belt

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    Espino > Romonov
     
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  12. 2020Tracked Green Belt

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    I disagree, have Romonov for 2 units

    Have Meerchart too, strange that he's a dog.
     
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  13. OuterDrake Orange Belt

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    I think Juan is much better bjj imo. Both guys have credentials in wrestling but Espino has competed in bjj tournaments for years and won several gold medals.

    When Juan takes guys down he puts the sub on them quickly, Romanov took almost two complete rounds to tap out Roque Martinez who has terrible ground game. Juan would have gotten Martinez out of there faster.

    Juan Francisco Espino - Wikipedia, la enciclopedia libre



    he's also looking to come in better shape. Romanov is in the same shape as his last fight.

    'In mixed martial arts, Juan Espino holds a 17-0 record in the amateur category, having been proclaimed Champion of Spain, organized by FILA,in Gijón,20European champion row in Hungary and world champion row in Canada. All these results were achieved in 2013. He also won the Spanish championship in 2014'

    this means he has close to 28 fights in mma, making him the far more experience mma fighter, for underdog odds he is the value bet.

    Striking wise i also give the edge to Espino he has a good overhand .

    compare both guys striking and tell me who is better.



    here Romanov struggling with a 205lb



    This to me is a no brainer. Im going to get him early before this fight becomes even odds by saturday.

    As for Meerchart too many losses on his record. he can possibly guilotine Fabinski, but i dont see much of an edge other than exp and submissions, fabinski has a wrestling advantage and both even on the feet. not touching either one.
     
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2021
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  14. rille31 Brown Belt

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    I wouldn't call that struggling, those where propably three 10-8s before the finish.
     
  15. OuterDrake Orange Belt

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    i never said he was losing, or it was close, but he kept getting blasted in the face on multiple occasions and letting a lighter opponent pop back up, his top control is not near the level of Juan who i've very rarely seen opponents pop back up when he gets them down.

    I should correct myself the guy there is 230lb, still much lighter, for weight advantage and good wrestling he took time beating a 7-3 opponent.
     
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2021
  16. DabanggData The Big Ticket

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    #UFCVegas24
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    UFC Vegas 24, UFC on ESPN 22, Sat., April 17

    parlay
    +381

    Robert Whittaker -245 "The Reaper"
    Abdul Razak Alhassan -290 "Judo Thunder"
    Tony Gravely -290

    Tracy Cortez -225
    Lupita Godinez -325 "Loopy" (opened -185)



     
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  17. Ryan Kelly Blue Belt

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    I hope you stick around.
     
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  18. OuterDrake Orange Belt

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    I like the first two. but Lupita Godinez got subbed in her early amateur fights in 2017, i cant put a pin on her grappling, is she a blue belt or a purple belt?
    Lupita "Loopy" Godinez MMA Stats, Pictures, News, Videos, Biography - Sherdog.com

    her opponent Jessica Penne - Wikipedia has a bjj black and brown belt in judo and much more cage time in the ufc. She has been really inactive so she will have ring rust, will probably pass on both, but the value bet is on Jessica.
     
  19. 2020Tracked Green Belt

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    I don't disagree that Espino probably has the edge wrestling but to say it took Romonov almost two rounds to get a finish over Martinez (who's only ever been finished twice before this and onc was a cut) means he's bad isn't fair, Martinez if nothing is very tough and showed no quit. In the same vein Espino couldn't finish Ben Sosili.
    Espino couldn't finish Ben Sosoli, no different. I agree Espino probably has the technical edge in the wrestling but Romonov has more scope to improve, has a clear youth edge and Espino is injury prone that shows fragility.

    I expect a messy fight, but I favour the younger, possibly more durable man in that kind if fight.

    I don't think the technical edge is wide enough that is gives Espino a significant edge
     
  20. ballsackarino White Belt

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    I would not bet Alhassan after he got KOed stiff last novemeber, 6 months ago. He was out cold for like a good 2 minutes stiff as a board. And now to play him at -300 when he is moving up? Granted, Malkoun looked like hot garbage against a similar power puncher in Hawes and he also got brutally KOed.

    If you think Razak will win, just play him (T)KO in Round 1. It's literally the only way he has ever won. KO inside 1, otherwise he loses. No value at -300 when I bet you his round 1 prop is gonna be like +money. Maybe even something like +200.
     

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