UFC FN 128 - Barboza vs Lee - Atlantic City

Cummings ko/tko at about 9.0 must have value. He’ll probably have 3 rounds to try to crack Anderson’s chin.
 
Yotsuya said:
Cummings ko/tko at about 9.0 must have value. He’ll probably have 3 rounds to try to crack Anderson’s chin.
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It has value probably yeah, but given that Pat has his own issues with his chin and Anderson is the much better striker, I wouldn't be too sure he'll have all 3 rounds. Corey could starch him at any point too.
 
Just finished rewatched Saenz/merab again and scored it the same. 1/3 for Saenz 29-28. The first is the round in question but he got ripped up by knees in the clinch and even his takedowns in the middle of the cage yielded nothing but him clinging to Saenz for dear life. Shouldn’t win a fight in 2018 but hugging a dudes legs and getting 5 second tds with absolutely no damage. Ricky 6 is putting hands on this dude anytime there’s space. There’s a reason he’s 7-3 boys.

Saenz kept throwing the same overhand right inviting the duck under, made it easier for merab. Ricky has much better hands.
 
Stunna77 said:
Just finished rewatched Saenz/merab again and scored it the same. 1/3 for Saenz 29-28. The first is the round in question but he got ripped up by knees in the clinch and even his takedowns in the middle of the cage yielded nothing but him clinging to Saenz for dear life. Shouldn’t win a fight in 2018 but hugging a dudes legs and getting 5 second tds with absolutely no damage. Ricky 6 is putting hands on this dude anytime there’s space. There’s a reason he’s 7-3 boys.

Saenz kept throwing the same overhand right inviting the duck under, made it easier for merab. Ricky has much better hands.
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Man disagree with scoring that one. Striking was fairly even with a VERY slight edge to Saenz imo. Stats show Saenz landed 11 more sig strikes but total strikes way in favor of Merab. I think TD's and aggessive grappling count for little, but they do count for SOMETHING. And in a fight with nothing significant happening standing, I think it was the difference. But...doesn't matter now.

I like Simon a lot but I haven't seen him show the scrambling and ability to get back to his feet like Saenz has. Maybe he'll prove me wrong, but I'm gonna lean toward Merab because I think not only can he score TD's in this fight, I think he can hold Simon down for longer stretches and maybe even land some gnp.

I will say that Simon has a WAY better chance of finishing. His NSC line reflects that, but there still might be value. I would be shocked if Merab even comes close to a finish. I do think the most likely outcome is him wrestling his way to a dec win though. If odds were switched I might consider Simon, I think it's a close fight. I'll go with the dog.
 
mkess101 said:
Man disagree with scoring that one. Striking was fairly even with a VERY slight edge to Saenz imo. Stats show Saenz landed 11 more sig strikes but total strikes way in favor of Merab. I think TD's and aggessive grappling count for little, but they do count for SOMETHING. And in a fight with nothing significant happening standing, I think it was the difference. But...doesn't matter now.

I like Simon a lot but I haven't seen him show the scrambling and ability to get back to his feet like Saenz has. Maybe he'll prove me wrong, but I'm gonna lean toward Merab because I think not only can he score TD's in this fight, I think he can hold Simon down for longer stretches and maybe even land some gnp.

I will say that Simon has a WAY better chance of finishing. His NSC line reflects that, but there still might be value. I would be shocked if Merab even comes close to a finish. I do think the most likely outcome is him wrestling his way to a dec win though. If odds were switched I might consider Simon, I think it's a close fight. I'll go with the dog.
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First round I think sig strikes were 20-5 Saenz and he hurt him with knees early in the clinch. Merab took him down many times, but literally did nothing, no advances, obviously no strikes given the above. I love seeing those decisions, guys who do nothing but hug shouldn't win fights. I wouldn't be shocked is Merab takes Simon down and wins a close dec, but Ill take the guy looking to actually hurt his opponent. Simon seems like a savage and is improving at a good clip. His hands looked much improved last fight.
 
mkess101 said:
It has value probably yeah, but given that Pat has his own issues with his chin and Anderson is the much better striker, I wouldn't be too sure he'll have all 3 rounds. Corey could starch him at any point too.
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Yeah, he could. Zane Simon argued though, that Corey might not have the power or killer instinct to fully take advantage Pat’s chin issues.
 
Stunna77 said:
First round I think sig strikes were 20-5 Saenz and he hurt him with knees early in the clinch. Merab took him down many times, but literally did nothing, no advances, obviously no strikes given the above. I love seeing those decisions, guys who do nothing but hug shouldn't win fights. I wouldn't be shocked is Merab takes Simon down and wins a close dec, but Ill take the guy looking to actually hurt his opponent. Simon seems like a savage and is improving at a good clip. His hands looked much improved last fight.
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Yeah like I said I do like Simon and I was trying to find any tape of him having to deal with a guy like Merab who really will just look to be a bulldog with his wrestling. I absolutely think Simon is the better striker, and he could catch Merab standing. But Merab's technical grappling is REALLY good as are his scrambles. Saenz is really high level, and Merab won the grappling aspect of that fight.

From an entertainment standpoint (and honestly I'd tend to agree from a judging standpoing overall) I like Simon way better than a guy like Merab. I just didn't think Saenz really ever hurt him at all (though he did cut him with one strike). I just don't know how Simon will deal with a guy who has little interest standing with him and who has the high level grappling that Merab has. Should be an interesting fight.
 
Yotsuya said:
Yeah, he could. Zane Simon argued though, that Corey might not have the power or killer instinct to fully take advantage Pat’s chin issues.
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Good point. Corey hasn't shown crushing power too often. But if he hurts Pat, good chance Corey level changes and puts Pat on his back where it would get very ugly for Pat at that point.
 
The cut on Merab gave Frankie that round in the judges eye imo. They said it was from a head butt on the brodcast iirc but judges don't have access to instant replays or fight metrics. If scoring is based on effective striking and grappling first then the dude who appeared to have been cut and rocked by knees who did nothing with his takedowns in the first round would lose that one I think. I could be wrong though.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
The cut on Merab gave Frankie that round in the judges eye imo. They said it was from a head butt on the brodcast iirc but judges don't have access to instant replays or fight metrics. If scoring is based on effective striking and grappling first then the dude who appeared to have been cut and rocked by knees who did nothing with his takedowns in the first round would lose that one I think. I could be wrong though.
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Man I just watched it today. I'm not sure how he was cut (I never saw a headbutt honestly, thought it was from a strike) but saying he was "rocked" by knees seems off. Yeah, he ate a few and one was pretty hard and clean, but I think the reason people assume he was hurt is because he reactively shot for a TD. But that's Merab's whole game. There was no "panic wrestling" there. Merab is ALWAYS looking to shoot for the TD. I don't think he was ever really hurt.

I scored the fight for Merab, but it wasn't a robbery or anything. Close fight, went Saenz way.
 
mkess101 said:
Man I just watched it today. I'm not sure how he was cut (I never saw a headbutt honestly, thought it was from a strike) but saying he was "rocked" by knees seems off. Yeah, he ate a few and one was pretty hard and clean, but I think the reason people assume he was hurt is because he reactively shot for a TD. But that's Merab's whole game. There was no "panic wrestling" there. Merab is ALWAYS looking to shoot for the TD. I don't think he was ever really hurt.

I scored the fight for Merab, but it wasn't a robbery or anything. Close fight, went Saenz way.
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Rewatch the first, he grabs at his stomach and keeps his hand there to try to block those knees, one of them clearly hurt him IMO. I think the cut was actually from a knee too in that same sequence. I just watched and already can't remember lol but I think Saenz pulls his head down and lands a glancing knee before they split..
 
zeckdo said:
i think you are nuts for betting 50 bucks on exact fight props but good luck
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last 4 events I hit at least 1 of them 7 of my last 10 so not to bad i also do 20 1 dollar all fighter parlays just dont post those 2 much shit to right down lol havent hit 1 yet and ive been doing them every event for idk last 10 events im guessing
 
mkess101 said:
Man I just watched it today. I'm not sure how he was cut (I never saw a headbutt honestly, thought it was from a strike) but saying he was "rocked" by knees seems off. Yeah, he ate a few and one was pretty hard and clean, but I think the reason people assume he was hurt is because he reactively shot for a TD. But that's Merab's whole game. There was no "panic wrestling" there. Merab is ALWAYS looking to shoot for the TD. I don't think he was ever really hurt.

I scored the fight for Merab, but it wasn't a robbery or anything. Close fight, went Saenz way.
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I wasn't saying it matter of factly (is factly a a word?) just trying to play the devils advocate. Obviously it's easier to score a fight with commentary and multiple viewings.
 
Stunna77 said:
Rewatch the first, he grabs at his stomach and keeps his hand there to try to block those knees, one of them clearly hurt him IMO. I think the cut was actually from a knee too in that same sequence. I just watched and already can't remember lol but I think Saenz pulls his head down and lands a glancing knee before they split..
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I for sure remember him holding his arm across his middle to block the knees. I maybe missed him grabbing his stomach though.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Merab money coming in

Merab +115
Simon -125
on 5d
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Way more value in Merab dec +200 than his ML imo. He's not finishing Simon barring something crazy.

I have 1u Merab dec and 1.5u Merab ML at +133 and honestly I regret my ML bet. If I could do it over I'd just be 1.5u Merab dec and leave it at that other than live bet.
 
mkess101 said:
Way more value in Merab dec +200 than his ML imo. He's not finishing Simon barring something crazy.

I have 1u Merab dec and 1.5u Merab ML at +133 and honestly I regret my ML bet. If I could do it over I'd just be 1.5u Merab dec and leave it at that other than live bet.
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I was thinking -125 might have value for Ricky. Little chalk but I always regret picking a specific outcome and it doesn't happen. Probably pass altogether. I do have Ricky as the first leg of a parlay though.
 
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