UFC FN 187 PBP/Discussion

Pretty easy u1.5

I switched sides to Belal.

I think Leon is better in so many areas, but if Belal can get him down once a round, I don't think Leon is getting up for the remainder of the round.

I think the low kicks of Belal/constant pressure/wrestling will earn him a decision. Recency bias is actually hurting Belal -- I think Lima has better TDD than Edwards does, and the leg kicks are a weapon that Edwards has never really thrown so Belal wont have to worry about them.

I'm probably an idiot, was on Edwards all week -- but I can't shake this feeling that the narrative after this fight is going to be, "haha can you imagine if he would've fought Khazmat, he couldn't even stop Belal's grappling".

UFC removed Edwards from the rankings for a reason, he was on the outs with them. GL
 
OuterDrake said:
Never made it that far..
This is one of my worst nights. Too many favorites won this night, the three dogs that won.

Frey, Ryan , and that guy that beat Kape.

Who seriously was gonna predict those three to win?

As for Anders, my call was right but its mma and some of these guys have poor IQ , sometimes you shoot and hope for the best.
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Frey was clear value she had much more experience than the contender series girl. @mkess101 and @Captain Chesapeake called out Misha's chin before the fight. Honestly I thought Kape won his fight but Oh well chalk it up to the game.
 
This is a rare time where I think the heavy favourite is still worth the odds.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
non-existent at that time, but has since then improved
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He ate a hard punch in that exchange where he knocked down Cirkunov. That is exactly what went wrong against Walker. Getting into risky exchanges.
 
Invictis said:
Pretty easy u1.5

I switched sides to Belal.

I think Leon is better in so many areas, but if Belal can get him down once a round, I don't think Leon is getting up for the remainder of the round.

I think the low kicks of Belal/constant pressure/wrestling will earn him a decision. Recency bias is actually hurting Belal -- I think Lima has better TDD than Edwards does, and the leg kicks are a weapon that Edwards has never really thrown so Belal wont have to worry about them.

I'm probably an idiot, was on Edwards all week -- but I can't shake this feeling that the narrative after this fight is going to be, "haha can you imagine if he would've fought Khazmat, he couldn't even stop Belal's grappling".

UFC removed him from the rankings for a reason, he was on the outs with them. GL
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Does it worry you he could barely get Lima down?
 
Welp, I was hoping all week more money would come in on Belal. Alas, it hasn't.

But I'll put 2u on Leon Edwards at -280, regardless.
 
Sono07 said:
Does it worry you he could barely get Lima down?
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No I think both Lima brothers are built like tanks and have incredible TDD. Douglas moreso, but iron sharpens iron. Also, Belal's leg was compromised pretty early on.

It does worry me that anytime Belal has a step up in competition, he falters. Jouban/Neal/Luque if I recall correctly he's lost to.
 
There's a real speed, technicals and athleticism difference between these two.
 
Invictis said:
No I think both Lima brothers are built like tanks and have incredible TDD. Douglas moreso, but iron sharpens iron. Also, Belal's leg was compromised pretty early on.

It does worry me that anytime Belal has a step up in competition, he falters. Jouban/Neal/Luque if I recall correctly he's lost to.
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I think Belal is a solid well rounded guy at 170. He seems way too flat footed and hittable to me though. If he can't pressure forward and push his pace higher level strikers can light him up at range.

Edwards getting ready for Khamzat better have been working his wrestling too.
 
jwms said:
There's a real speed, technicals and athleticism difference between these two.
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There is.

But Leon relies on people closing the distance on him and countering them. Belal will be in his face the whole fight, and will not falter throughout five rounds.

I think this is a bigger test for Leon than RDA was far and away.

If Belal gets KO'd, I will be quite surprised. If he loses a split, I will not be.
 
Sono07 said:
I think Belal is a solid well rounded guy at 170. He seems way too flat footed and hittable to me though. If he can't pressure forward and push his pace higher level strikers can light him up at range.
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Yup, and against talented strikers, it's tougher to pressure at that high pace.
 
People think layoffs don't matter, but I'd be hesitant on Leon because of that.

We saw Ponzinhibbio look like garbage after his long layoff. Maybe it's totally different tonight but...?
 
mkess101 said:
People think layoffs don't matter, but I'd be hesitant on Leon because of that.

We saw Ponzinhibbio look like garbage after his long layoff. Maybe it's totally different tonight but...?
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Santiago had some big health issues that nearly ended his career before The Leech got a chance to try though
 
Sono07 said:
Santiago had some big health issues that nearly ended his career before The Leech got a chance to try though
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Fair point for sure.
 
I took Belal by decision at +400. I don't think he can put Edwards away, and put his chances at winning in that ballpark, so thought there was value. I think Edwards should win this 3/4 of the time, though...
 
That might be the contact lens. The bully is getting big brothered by the brit.
 
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