UFC Fox 20: holm vs shevchenko - chicago

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Against the grain here. I'm on Usman, Herrig, and Knight so far. I'm very surprised that a lot of people are on Alers at his odds.
 
There have been a lot of flags with Curran. How do you get subbed by Chambers the way she did? She was in a very close fight to Kagan before snagging the sub. Curran was a heavy favorite going into that too. She was near even against PVZ too. She's looked square in every one of her UFC fights.
 
Hit Barboza + Holm/Shev o3.0 at +103 and Holm decision at +120
 
You guys betting on Felice Herrig (FELICE HERRIG) have legitimately lost your minds.
 
You guys betting on Felice Herrig (FELICE HERRIG) have legitimately lost your minds.

Do you actually think there is value on Curran or just think it's risky to bet the fight?
 
Do you actually think there is value on Curran or just think it's risky to bet the fight?

They're both terrible. Not worth betting on the current line on either fighter and friends don't let friends bet on Felice Herrig.
 
Then, we should wait for UFC 201, not interesting event to bet
 
They're both terrible. Not worth betting on the current line on either fighter and friends don't let friends bet on Felice Herrig.

Friends don't let friends skip betting a fight bro.
 
Over and livebet for me on that chick fight. Agree they're both terrible.
 
I think Luis Henrique may be worth a bet, Smolyakov has largely been a can crusher.
 
Short notice:

Kamaru Usman (6 weeks) - in Ryan LaFlare vs. Alexander Yakovlev
JC Cottrell (0 days) - in for Tony Martin vs. Michel Prazeres
 
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/1/2...an-mma-alessio-di-chirico-italian-roster-news

Who is Bojan Mihajlovic?

The 35-year-old fighter is the first Serbian (I believe) in the promotion's history. He trains out of Family Fight Team in Novi Sad alongside a number of longtime regional vets and reasonably promising young fighters, who compete mostly on the regional local circuit. Mihajlovic is an old-school adopter of MMA in his native homeland. He's traveled to Brazil on several occasions to learn the basics of MMA and Luta Livre technique and bring them back to his own training environments. As such he has a somewhat inconsistent pro career that stretches all the way back to 2003. He'll be entering the UFC with a 10-3 official Sherdog record, whether or not that represents a clear picture of his actual pro career. His record is mostly made up of cans and .500 opponents, but he hasn't officially lost since 2006 to UFC vet Goran Reljic. Moreover, his record is pretty indicative of the circuit he fights on, which is pretty underdeveloped in comparison to the global MMA scene.

What you should expect:

First off, on a more well developed circuit, Mihajlovic would probably be a light heavyweight, and even then a smallish one. He's got the Omielanczuk build of being shortish (5' 11"), barrel chested, and short armed. He's actually pretty light on his feet as a big man, but it's reasonable to wonder if that's not in part due to him not being a true heavyweight. In terms of skill sets, Mihajlovic is mostly a kicker when he's standing and given time and space it seems like he'd like to be a range striker. But, he doesn't do well at maintaining distance when he punches and usually ends up clinched up after one or two strikes.

Because he's a smallish fighter, Mihajlovic often gets muscled around a bit on the inside. Opponents have been able to push him against the fence regularly and keep him there for long stretches. Part of that is his own comfort there, as bodylock takedowns are central to Mihajlovic's arsenal. If he can get his back off the cage and find underhooks, Mihajlovic is decent at getting the bodylock and using foot sweeps along with his low center of gravity to snap opponents to the ground.

On the ground is where Mihajlovic does all his fight ending work. He's quick to move into mount (usually from side control off the bodylock) and because of his short powerful stature, he has very little trouble kneeling or crouching over opponents while raining down heavy, fast shots. It's the best developed part of his game, without question. It's also shown him as a potential loose cannon fighter, who has tried to punch through referees and had to be pulled off of at least a couple opponents. It's something that could translate really poorly to a larger, more public arena like the UFC.

What this means for his debut:

It's pretty clear that Mihajlovic is set up as cannon fodder here for Ngannou. He's not a dangerous puncher standing, and while he throws a decent variety of snapping kicks, his short arms and legs put him at serious disadvantage in trying to range strike against someone with 5 inches of height on him (and probably a lot more reach). His reliance on clinches and body locks to initiate his takedown and ground game mean he might be able to surprise the Frenchman once or twice and catch him off balance, but they make him poorly suited for winning a battle of strength inside over the long run of a fight. Mihajlovic is tough and scrappy and I expect he'll put up a fight, but it's hard to see him winning, or even making the final bell here.

 
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/1/1...vyweight-greco-roman-russian-dmitry-smolyakov

Who is Dmitry Smolyakov?

The 31-year old Russian Master of Sport in freestyle & Greco-Roman wrestling has already been a part of the Eastern European MMA scene beyond his pro-MMA career in more of a coaching role. He's been a training partner for fighters like Mamed Khalidov, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and others on the Polish MMA scene out of Berkut Arrachion Olsztyn. He'll be making his way to the UFC with an undefeated 7-0 record, with all of his wins coming by way of 1st round TKO or submission. His record is about what you'd expect out of a regional heavyweight, which is to say that he's fought little in the way of serious competition. His best win on paper is probably from his first pro fight, with the rest being completely green or loss heavy fighters.

What you should expect:

He moves like a Greco-Roman guy, which is to say, he's a bit heavy on his feet (think Dan Henderson shuffle). He's actually got pretty quick hands when he throws them and it looks like he's spent some serious time working on his boxing, but he's not a dynamic force at 250 odd pounds. He's got a lot of power in his punches and uses them well, with good timing and a reasonable jab. When he hurts opponents, he's great at opening up with fast flurries of short varied strikes; he's got great finishing instincts. Smolyakov also has a rock solid upper body takedown game, from his Greco background, and looks like he stuffs a shot well, although that's tough to tell against his competition.

His grappling is probably the most notably lacking piece of his game. He tends to go for low control, high power subs from top position, something that has a pretty low success rate in the UFC. Still, grappling is probably the least important aspect of the heavyweight MMA game. Depending on how well Smolyakov can tighten up his striking defense, I expect he'll do pretty well against UFC competition.

 
Sullivan could be playable think he can lay on Urbina for 3 rounds but need to watch tape. Anyone offer up an opinion?

Urbina comes from a wrestling background though go watch his fight against Cathal Pendred in TUF he did well. If Sullivan wants to go that wrestling route, its not going to be easy, Sullivan also seems to gas in the 3rd round, watch his Dom Waters fight (Dom took that fight on short notice, UFC debut and had a little bit of success in that 3rd round) Also watch his Tim Means fight in which he gets finished in the 3rd round.

Fun fact: recently on TUF, Hector Urbinas brother (Elias Urbina) lost a 2 round unanimous decision to Eric Spicely, the guy who just lost to Sam Alvey this past week.
 
Urbina comes from a wrestling background though go watch his fight against Cathal Pendred in TUF he did well. If Sullivan wants to go that wrestling route, its not going to be easy, Sullivan also seems to gas in the 3rd round, watch his Dom Waters fight (Dom took that fight on short notice, UFC debut and had a little bit of success in that 3rd round) Also watch his Tim Means fight in which he gets finished in the 3rd round.

Fun fact: recently on TUF, Hector Urbinas brother (Elias Urbina) lost a 2 round unanimous decision to Eric Spicely, the guy who just lost to Sam Alvey this past week.
The dude did get wrestlefucked by Bartosz Fabinski though. A guy who is complete garbage and literally just runs forward into td attempts.

I think the only way Urbina wins this fight is landing something in an exchange. Sullivan should get the better of the wrestling, he should be the more physical fighter and able to push Urbina against the fence, and he hits just as hard with just as good boxing technique.
 
Bartosz Fabinski is not bad. I know his record doesn't look the best, hes one of those guys who is better than his record suggests. He also pretty much dominated Gareth McLennan who has a win over Bubba Bush.
 
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