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UFC FOX 22 pbp/discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 17, 2016.

  1. vkram Brown Belt

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    We probably overrated Aldana based on her performance vs lower level fighters along with octagon jitters, Smith being correct in her assessment of Aldana (doesn't like getting pressured) and Smith executing her game plan perfectly.
     
  2. 209NickDiaz Gold Belt

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    It was a lucky 31 type bet so even if one missed I still get paid
     
  3. rille31 Brown Belt

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    what a night, think Im up like 30units
     
  4. Xuh Silver Belt

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    I dunno, I thought she looked a bit slower than previous fights, clumsier too. Maybe tense on UFC debut?
    After getting knocked down seemed a bit nervous too. Didn't throw enough in rds 2 & 3. Didn't like the pressure.
    I figured they'd get in exchanges but thought Aldana being bigger, stronger, more athletic, harder hitting, & with better technique, would come out by far the better in them. Instead it looked like she got scared by Smith's pressure.
    Pretty shitty loss TBH (bet wise, & for Aldana too - I didn't expect her to reach the top of the div but Smith seemed a fairly easy matchup for her so not sure where the Ws are gonna come from for her in the UFC).
    Also the unwritten rule of betting: when you go large on a big fav who everyone else also picks, their chances of losing go up 75% :p
     
  5. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Wmma guys. We have surely learnt by now swerve like the plague unless its top 2 or 3
     
  6. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Lol LZ ....I think that we're all asking that...look just four or five posts back and you'll see I asked the same question and wack and me were discussing it..we overvalued her white simultaneously devaluing Leslie's veteran savvy..I rarely ever play first time UFC fighters and even less debuting females, but I just thought that Aldana was better everywhere and that Leslie was so slow she'd be picked apart or KO'd. At any rate this was the best Leslie we have ever seen.
     
  7. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Man...even then LOL. So many of us had Holm by dec over Meisha and then she makes one dumb mistake (granted amazing blitz by Meisha to get Holm down) and ruined that bet for a lot of us.

    We did clean up with Nunes rd 1 vs Meisha though he he. And I made bank on JJ unam dec vs KK.

    Okay so yeah LOL you're right, top tier WMMA for sure more predictable.
     
  8. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Exactly dude they are all top tier. Anything less just avoid
     
  9. usernamee Silver Belt

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    I just looked at her record and saw that everytime her fights go out of the 1st round she looses and I knew Leslie is tuf as fuk

    Almost all my other bets was shit tho. Moon, Sage, Paige, Perry and some overs. Havent felt confident in any bet to put big money behind since about a year ago, but I studied fights a lot more then that's probably what I need to get back to..
     
  10. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    I had the worst night I can remember. Missed all big plays, Aldana, Perry Jouban ITD messed upp my parlays. Chased on Sage. Just gotta get back to 207.
     
  11. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    Can we finally bury the myth that Perry has good chin? he was koed by kenneth mcneil, dropped in his outside ufc fight and now dropped by Jouban. his chin isnt the worst but its not worth pointing out anymore that his chin is good and that helps win the fight.
     
  12. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    @EzFlyer

    Just finished this event.

    2 judges gave Aliev the 1st round, wtf? Bojan outstruck him and threatened the armbar on the ground. Aliev had only a single takedown.
     
  13. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Absurd, I agree.

    I still say Rd 2 was competitive, too.. tho I expected 29-28 for aliev

    I said it during the fight, too.. 30-27 is a joke
     
  14. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Perry has a good chin, imo. Is it a top p4p chin in MMA? Far from proven

    He recovered really well at the end of rd 2 to the most significant shots, imo
     
  15. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I said all along its not what everyone was making it out to be
     
  16. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Yea not my best night, either

    Let's embrace the week off, no one lose much on other sports, plz!

    We'll get 'em in two weeks !
     
  17. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    RE: Perry's chin

    I agree with EZ. It looks "good", but not legendary Mark-Hunt-eating-CroCop-headkick-like-a-snack good. And honestly, if it's an asset and you refuse to engage and take chances to force a firefight when you're behind, it doesn't really matter how good your chin is. Jouban did a nice job of not doing what he's historically done and needs to be given credit. He kept moving, picked his spots, etc. But if you are Perry there you gotta take some chances. Maybe take a minute at the start of rd 3 to fully clear the cobwebs, but then it's balls to the wall. You can't fight the last 3-4 minutes of that fight the way he did.
     
  18. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    The golden rule of WMMA betting proved to be true once again. Never bet big faves if they're not named Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
     
  19. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Perrys chin will be shot in two years or so if he continues to be as easy to hit
     
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Hope people did well overall. I lost some smaller bets, but just absolutely demolished it overall. As I said, I had what was probably an irresponsible amount on Colby -3.5 but I was so sure Barb would have no answers I went with it. Even I was surprised how well Colby looked standing. He got the better of Barb there, and dominated the grappling as expected.

    Also cleaned up on Gall. Kid did what I thought he would, though like I said clipping Sage with a punch wasn't expected. As @Oblivian and I talked about, when you have a world class grappler vs a blue belt level guy with sub par tdd, that should be a bigger consideration than experience imo. Especially because like O pointed out, Sage seems (for whatever insane reason) confident in his grappling and willingly engages in it.

    Icing on the cake was my hail mary that hit. When you hit a parlay at +13400 it's pretty tough to have a bad night LOL.
     

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