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UFC FOX 22 pbp/discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 17, 2016.

  1. Slohog Green Belt

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    In Sage defense he only looked really outgunned in round 1. During the break he listened to his corner, changed a few things and looked a ton better. He still got owned by a "lucky" punch due to his adjustments, but at least he did make them.

    Think it's safe to say that he's still lacking fight-IQ, game planing and grappling but at least he listens when he gets owned. I think that's nice for his future.
     
  2. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Its not irrelevant when you say the fight went exactly as you expected lol you didn't even expect the finishing sequence to come off of a punch, cause how would you?
     
  3. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Yeah but we couldn't assume it was good either. You basically just had to accept there was risk either way if you were an asshole like me with money on this freak show fight

    I didn't assume the worst, I assumed this would be too much for a guy with basically zero MMA fights. To his credit, Gall proved to be legit. He has work to do, but being better than a fighter of Sage's calibur this early in his MMA career (garbage compared to UFC guys but Sage would still do well on regionals) is obviously not something I expected. But it was a freakshow fight with a bunch of question marks so only thing I can really regret is number of units I risked like a dummy
     
  4. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Yeah can't be too hard on the kid. He didn't engage in the grappling like hes prone to do, and did make the adjustments in the second as you said. I thought he was winning the second and looking good til the punch
     
  5. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I always think it's important to look at the possibility of both sides and assign the % to the possibilities. IMO, if Gall proved to still look solid against a step up in competition and Sage looked improved, I still favored Gall. If Gall still looked solid and Sage is still at the same level (basically what we saw), I favored Gall quite a bit. The only time I'd have favored Sage is if the step up in competition really made Gall look bad AND Sage was improved. You then have to assign the likelihood to each scenario, and IMO, the most likely scenario was Gall looking solid and Sage looking about the same.

    You have to remember that these grappling competitions mean something. He's been in there with solid guys. You then have to remember that he's been a big, high profile UFC fight. From what we've seen of his fights, he handled them well and completely obliterated his opponents. As I expressed many times, I just have a hard time not giving him the benefit of the doubt when there is a lot of evidence there that the kid can perform. And this is not even going into all of the evidence that Sage grapples way too much and has deficiencies on the ground.

    A good fight coming up that a similar type of analysis of assigning % is Cain/Werdum. What if Werdum is just a bad matchup for Cain and part of the reason he gassed? What if it was just due to the fight being in Mexico? What about Cain's injury? Etc. We honestly do not know and have to make assumptions. That's gambling and the fight game for you, but you have to assign the % chance to each possibility and go from there.
     
  6. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I take my L, but since waiguoren mentioned it to, I still stand by winning grapplers quest not equating to MMA success. If Sage had landed the shot in the second round, everyone would be agreeing. Sage reversed the guy, and everyone agreed his ground was complete shit lol Grappler's Quest doesn't let you know if a guy can throw a punch or not which Gall obviously can
     
  7. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    You seem to be implying it was a lucky punch that changed the whole course of the fight. Was Gall not dominating (in every area) before that then..?

    Bottom line is he had the advantage everywhere we thought he would and even some we didn't.

    Edit: Btw they're both legit mma fighters. It's not a freakshow fight just because their profiles are higher than they should be at this stage.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2016
  8. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Gall absolutely outgrappled Sage in the first and the second. I don't know how that is even up for debate. Let's not pretend that Gall only got that sub because Sage got hit either. Gall's best area is when he has the back and it was clear in the way he transitioned.

    You are absolutely nuts if you think someone who has done well at grappling competitions is not more than likely to have a solid ground game at MMA. Is it a guarantee? Absolutely not, but it's more than likely.
     
  9. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    lol no he wasn't. He was losing the second round, and Sage's footwork was making it hard for him to come close to shooting range. Before that punch that dropped Sage, literally everytime Gall threw something Sage countered
     
  10. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    There was no grappling in the second cause Sage's footwork kept him in a good position to avoid it. He did only get it cause Sage got hit lmao he didn't take the back in the first round, did he? No he got reversed.
     
  11. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    The fight is on youtube right now if you want to rewatch Rd 2. I think you are holding onto the fact that Sage didn't get taken down quickly as some huge victory. Gall lands on him standing as well. In fact, the first punch that lands is a jab from Gall. Sage's cocky attitude (which he showed in Rd 1 too) makes it look like he's doing great, but he really didn't land much clean besides the one shot. It wasn't like Gall was in a huge deficit to take back that round. And again, after Gall lands, Sage falls but it's not like he's way off balance afterwards. He does what he always does out of horrible habit, initiates the grappling. He shot in on Gall. It's almost like he realized how bad he fucked up mid shot. He tried still controlling Gall's leg but Gall's transition to the back was really smooth and quick.
     
  12. Rico Franklin Platinum Member

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    Just got my brown last week...woot woot
     
  13. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    He was still losing round 2.....

    Also, what are you talking about shooting in on Gall? When he was rocked? Cmon, he was rocked lol other than that he clearly showed hes learned from his mistakes of always embracing the grappling
     
  14. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Yes, he was losing round 2 until he wasn't. Really solid argument - lol. Sage lost round 1 clearly and obviously lost round 2 as he got subbed. Sage had basically one moment of good offense in round 2 that got completely overshadowed by a better punch from Gall and then a sub. You are holding onto two tiny pieces of a fight (a reversal and some footwork) as if that is a huge deal on someone who wasn't even a steep dog. Think how many things Gall accomplished in that fight vs. those two things.
     
  15. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    C'mon bro you're seeing what you want to see. I said it in the pre-fight thread, Gall wins this fight 9 times out of 10 for the reasons stated. At least 9 imo.
     
  16. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I'm seeing whats real lol I take my loss but smfh @ someone saying what you said about "the fight going exactly as you saw it" when no one on Earth could've predicted Gall almost KOing him and no one gave Sage a chance to reverse position if he was taken down. Take your winnings, but don't let them cloud reality
     
  17. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    It is a solid argument when you're trying to make it seem like he wasn't winning round 2......
     
  18. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    "It wasn't like Gall was in a huge deficit to take back that round."

    Yes, I'm clearly saying Gall was winning the round before the punch....
     
  19. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    I think you're allowing your own pride & emotion to cloud your judgement. Not a good trait for anyone serious about sportsbook gambling.

    As O says, the fight's on youtube. You need to watch it again if you think those 2 moments you keep going on about are the only things that happened.
     
  20. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    He was losing the round with no signs of taking it back before the punch. Not sure what else there is to it.
     

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