UFC FOX 22 - PVS vs Waterson - Sacramento

[Joseph Budden]

Joe..."potential jiu jitsu advantage"? C'mon.

I understand thinking it's a bad bet to play Gall as a favorite. I like him to win and even I'm extremely hesitant to pull the trigger. But don't be ridiculous. It's not a "potential" grappling edge. It's an obvious bjj advantage that's undeniable. Whether he gets to use it is for sure up for debate. Whether it's there isn't.

Cmon cause I consider it potential? This isn't sports jiu jitsu, and we've been over examples of the BEST sport JJ people having struggles adapting that to MMA

Unless Sage has made drastic improvements and changed his style completely, he won't look to hold position on takedowns. He's very loose and aggressive.

I think it's pretty easy to make an argument that it's more irrational to bet a guy that has shown several holes in his game, particularly in an area where his opponent excels, and go on hope that he's a "prospect" and improving (although we aren't seeing improvements from fight to fight as it is).

I agree with Vkram though. It's not a fight where I think anyone should go heavy.

Aren't drastic improvements something to consider with a 20 or 21 year old uber athletic prospect who has had tough fights to learn from though? Especially when under these circumstances it's not like his opponent has more MMA knowledge.

It's irrational to bet the guy with wins over legit fighters and a round won vs Barberana as a dog rather than a favorite who has NO real MMA experience? Yeah ok might wanna think a little harder about that one

 

[Joseph Budden]

The fight is pretty near a pick 'em. Lol at Joe acting as though Gall is heavy favored and everyone is betting him.

Like you said he's -130. I think betting him at that price is ridiculous

Edit -135 now smh

 

[Oblivian]

Like you said he's -130. I think betting him at that price is ridiculous

-130 is an implied probability of <60%. In a fight where you are basically admitting there are so many unknowns, it's just taking a very slight leap of faith that Sage's issues he's shown are a greater factor than MMA inexperience of Gall. Acting as though you are really snagging Sage as a "dog" is laughable. It's a damn near pick' em.

 

[mkess101]

Cmon cause I consider it potential? This isn't sports jiu jitsu, and we've been over examples of the BEST sport JJ people having struggles adapting that to MMA


Aren't drastic improvements something to consider with a 20 or 21 year old uber athletic prospect who has had tough fights to learn from though? Especially when under these circumstances it's not like his opponent has more MMA knowledge.

It's irrational to bet the guy with wins over legit fighters and a round won vs Barberana as a dog rather than a favorite who has NO real MMA experience? Yeah ok might wanna think a little harder about that one

I know it's MMA and not pure grappling, but the elite pure bjj guys who have struggled in MMA isnt' because they can't dominate grappling against guys that are eons worse grapplers than they are. Basic grappling principles still apply. The reason they've struggled is because they can't get the fight where they need it or they are so averse to getting hit that their standup is non-existant.

Do I think there's a very realistic chance that Gall can't get the fight to the mat and gets pieced up in a standup fight? Absolutely. Do I think that if Gall does get the fight to the mat that all basic principles of grappling cease to exist because "Hey, this is MMA and not a grappling tourney". Hell no. If Sage ends up on the mat with Gall, there's not going to be any "potential" disadvantage for Sage. There's going to be a gap in skill the size of the Grand Canyon barring some miraculous improvements over the last few months from Sage.

 

[Oblivian]

And seriously, how do you see the fight going? You haven't even made a single argument (at least ITT) to how you see the fight going. You are just saying "Gall is inexperienced and Sage has experience". That's a pretty weak argument for a fight that you seem so sure on value.

 

[Joseph Budden]

-130 is an implied probability of <60%. In a fight where you are basically admitting there are so many unknowns, it's just taking a very slight leap of faith that Sage's issues he's shown are a greater factor than MMA inexperience of Gall. Acting as though you are really snagging Sage as a "dog" is laughable. It's a damn near pick' em.

FIrst of all just wanna point out I got Sage at +140 which I consider amazing value

Yes there are unknowns. For example, how does Mickeys MMA game look vs someone who isn't a complete bum? Not relative to UFC bum, we are talking gangstas off the streets might whoop on Punk and Jackson. Would you agree Sage isn't a complete bum? Than WHY bet Mickey at any favorite odds !!

 

[Joseph Budden]

And seriously, how do you see the fight going? You haven't even made a single argument (at least ITT) to how you see the fight going. You are just saying "Gall is inexperienced and Sage has experience". That's a pretty weak argument for a fight that you seem so sure on value.

I see Sage absolutely crushing him to be honest. That is my prediction. Gall Is going to look like the complete MMA novice he is. I have ZERO reason to assume Gall has a game that is so good he gets to skip the regionals and beat Sage

 

[Joseph Budden]

I know it's MMA and not pure grappling, but the elite pure bjj guys who have struggled in MMA isnt' because they can't dominate grappling against guys that are eons worse grapplers than they are. Basic grappling principles still apply. The reason they've struggled is because they can't get the fight where they need it or they are so averse to getting hit that their standup is non-existant.

Do I think there's a very realistic chance that Gall can't get the fight to the mat and gets pieced up in a standup fight? Absolutely. Do I think that if Gall does get the fight to the mat that all basic principles of grappling cease to exist because "Hey, this is MMA and not a grappling tourney". Hell no. If Sage ends up on the mat with Gall, there's not going to be any "potential" disadvantage for Sage. There's going to be a gap in skill the size of the Grand Canyon barring some miraculous improvements over the last few months from Sage.

Correction, if Sage ends up on bottom those principles most likely apply. If Sage is on top you can't assume Gall can weather punches to the face to implement a bottomgame that will put him in a good spot

 

[Oblivian]

I've already pointed out why. It's pointless going back and forth with you on things. I think the only other time that I did it was on Cole Miller vs. Caceres which you saw "amazing value" in Miller. The problem with you is that once you bet on something, you just completely close off your mind to the other side. Even after that fight, you basically just said Miller underperformed rather than seeing that Caceres was a tough matchup for him.

The difference between me and you is that I can understand the logic of someone betting the other side and in this case Sage. But either way, you are taking a leap of faith in hoping that Gall's inexperience is a big factor. The other side is taking a leap of faith and thinking that even if it is a factor, Sage's deficiencies that have actually shown themselves are a bigger factor.

 

[Tebowned]

Re:
Sage Vs gall.

Gall is gonna have the size adavantage.
Most likely the bjj advantage.

Sage is going to be more athletic.
He's most likely gonna have the striking advantage.

The big question mark is wrassling.
If Sage can defend the TDs he'll likely pick apart Gall.

If gall swings like he did against Michael Jackson I see him getting caught with sages straighter punches.

If Sage gets taken down I don't see him getting subbed right away as cm punk was able to defend for quite some time but I think Sage may lose the round.

Still too much question marks more me to lay more than half a unit-1 unit on.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I've already pointed out why. It's pointless going back and forth with you on things. I think the only other time that I did it was on Cole Miller vs. Caceres which you saw "amazing value" in Miller. The problem with you is that once you bet on something, you just completely close off your mind to the other side. Even after that fight, you basically just said Miller underperformed rather than seeing that Caceres was a tough matchup for him.

The difference between me and you is that I can understand the logic of someone betting the other side and in this case Sage. But either way, you are taking a leap of faith in hoping that Gall's inexperience is a big factor. The other side is taking a leap of faith and thinking that even if it is a factor, Sage's deficiencies that have actually shown themselves are a bigger factor.

Why do you resort to pointing out losers someone has had as a means to further your case EVERYTIME you discuss fights with someone? I'm a fucking betting monster and those are facts backed by results so cut the shit

I can't understand the logic of the other side of this one, that is correct. Especially when Gall is the favorite.

 

[mkess101]

Correction, if Sage ends up on bottom those principles most likely apply. If Sage is on top you can't assume Gall can weather punches to the face to implement a bottomgame that will put him in a good spot

Based on what I've seen from Sage, I'd assume he gets swept extremely quickly by Gall. Obviously Sage on top is much better for him than being on his back but his lack of fundamentals even in top position are glaring. And while he's looked like the bigger fighter in each of his last 2 fights, that won't be the case here. The likelihood of him just trying to use brute strength and being successful to not get swept is much less.

This is a guess of course, but if Gall ends up on his back I'd assume he immediately threatens with SOMETHING which causes Sage to overreact (because that's what inexperienced grapplers do) and Gall takes advantage to sweep. I'm piecing things together here of course based on what I've seen of Sage in MMA and of Gall mostly in grappling matches but the skill gap is wide enough based on that for me to think Sage couldn't hold top position long enough to land much (if any) gnp.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Based on what I've seen from Sage, I'd assume he gets swept extremely quickly by Gall. Obviously Sage on top is much better for him than being on his back but his lack of fundamentals even in top position are glaring. And while he's looked like the bigger fighter in each of his last 2 fights, that won't be the case here. The likelihood of him just trying to use brute strength and being successful to not get swept is much less.

This is a guess of course, but if Gall ends up on his back I'd assume he immediately threatens with SOMETHING which causes Sage to overreact (because that's what inexperienced grapplers do) and Gall takes advantage to sweep. I'm piecing things together here of course based on what I've seen of Sage in MMA and of Gall mostly in grappling matches but the skill gap is wide enough based on that for me to think Sage couldn't hold top position long enough to land much (if any) gnp.

Still, you've never seen Gall doing jiu jitsu while getting punched in the face. We both know just as I found examples of top JJ people having a hard time in MMA I can find examples of belt levels dropping from strikes

And you said it yourself my man, you have to resort to guessing!! Cmon bet the dog you saw with your own two eyes take a round from Barberena

 

[mkess101]

Re:
Sage Vs gall.

Gall is gonna have the size adavantage.
Most likely the bjj advantage.

Sage is going to be more athletic.
He's most likely gonna have the striking advantage.

The big question mark is wrassling.
If Sage can defend the TDs he'll likely pick apart Gall.

If gall swings like he did against Michael Jackson I see him getting caught with sages straighter punches.

If Sage gets taken down I don't see him getting subbed right away as cm punk was able to defend for quite some time but I think Sage may lose the round.

Still too much question marks more me to lay more than half a unit-1 unit on.

Yeah Sage isn't gonna get subbed in 30 seconds if it hits the mat. Punk really didn't defend ANYTHING. Gall systematically broke him down exactly as you'd expect a far superior grappler to do. If you rewatch that fight, you see basically a blueprint for what you'd want a dominant grappler to do in order to get a stoppage in an MMA fight.

It's CM Punk, so...yeah LOL. But from the second it hit the mat there was literally zero question the fight was going to end with Gall winning inside the first round.

 

[SBJJ]

I've already pointed out why. It's pointless going back and forth with you on things. I think the only other time that I did it was on Cole Miller vs. Caceres which you saw "amazing value" in Miller. The problem with you is that once you bet on something, you just completely close off your mind to the other side. Even after that fight, you basically just said Miller underperformed rather than seeing that Caceres was a tough matchup for him.

The difference between me and you is that I can understand the logic of someone betting the other side and in this case Sage. But either way, you are taking a leap of faith in hoping that Gall's inexperience is a big factor. The other side is taking a leap of faith and thinking that even if it is a factor, Sage's deficiencies that have actually shown themselves are a bigger factor.

He is definetly not the only one who closes his mind to things in this forum.

 

[SBJJ]

I like Jouban, Gall and The hot Asian Chick

 

[Joseph Budden]

He is definetly not the only one who closes his mind to things in this forum.

That's a joke if you are insinuating I close my mind when I consistently play devils advocate to the opposite and as recently as last week w Kennedy

 

[SBJJ]

Re:
Sage Vs gall.

Gall is gonna have the size adavantage.
Most likely the bjj advantage.

Sage is going to be more athletic.
He's most likely gonna have the striking advantage.

The big question mark is wrassling.
If Sage can defend the TDs he'll likely pick apart Gall.

If gall swings like he did against Michael Jackson I see him getting caught with sages straighter punches.

If Sage gets taken down I don't see him getting subbed right away as cm punk was able to defend for quite some time but I think Sage may lose the round.

Still too much question marks more me to lay more than half a unit-1 unit on.

Agree mostly. I do think that Gall might have that gritty hard nosed style that could give sage problems. But who really knows

 

[SBJJ]

That's a joke if you are insinuating I close my mind when I consistently play devils advocate to the opposite and as recently as last week w Kennedy

No. I'm pointing out most of us do it at times.

 

[mkess101]

Still, you've never seen Gall doing jiu jitsu while getting punched in the face. We both know just as I found examples of top JJ people having a hard time in MMA I can find examples of belt levels dropping from strikes

And you said it yourself my man, you have to resort to guessing!! Cmon bet the dog you saw with your own two eyes take a round from Barberena

It's all a guess, albeit an educated one LOL.

You have to keep in mind, I'm not ONLY talking about Gall's grappling skills. I'm ALSO talking about Sage's lack of them. It's a bad combination for Sage if this thing hits the mat.