UFC FOX 22 - PVS vs Waterson - Sacramento

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so i'm already all over the place on gall-sage (mostly leaning gall early finish, plz dear god via KO/TKO)

but sage SUB just practically doubled up to +1060. dude loves his guillotine.. he COULD get it.. and then the questionmarks of what happens to mickey later on in the fight if he dosen't get his way, can he get RNC'd, etc...
 
Officer_Brown said:
Its nice to read different opinions and stuff sometimes it helps. Thats why I am so successful because I think out of box and trust my own opinion the most. Hey can you answer me why iv been in top 5 (out of more than 1000 contenders) last two seasons?(tapology.com) hehe......
Hey and I have sweeped my black belt instructor too in sparring.. that doesn't mean i'm anywhere good. If you think 2 sweeps shows something you are highly mistaken my boi. Ryan felt that the guy isn't on his level and kinda toyed with him.
And Ivtaken few big robberies. I haven't lost anything.
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LOL I'm not sure why I'm responding here...

I think you are probably just trolling if you think Ryan was just "toying" with Gall at the NAGA world championships. I'm not your "boi" either. Yes 2 sweeps shows plenty when it's against that guy who's subbing everyone under the sun on the grappling circuit. Keep on believing nonsense like this and calling it "out of the box thinking" I guess.

I guess it's good you are "so successful". Very odd that you were posting things talking about how wrecked you were, never betting again, etc. I hope you are using some common sense in the amounts you are betting in regards to what you can afford in case you are to take any more big losses...err sorry..."robberies" going forward. I'm hoping to not hear any deep, heartfelt lamenting from you about how broke you are.

BOL man. I'll be watching for you on the grappling circuit because if you swept your instructor that means you're probably ready to tap Gall here in the near future.
 
mkess101 said:
LOL I'm not sure why I'm responding here...

I think you are probably just trolling if you think Ryan was just "toying" with Gall at the NAGA world championships. I'm not your "boi" either. Yes 2 sweeps shows plenty when it's against that guy who's subbing everyone under the sun on the grappling circuit. Keep on believing nonsense like this and calling it "out of the box thinking" I guess.

I guess it's good you are "so successful". Very odd that you were posting things talking about how wrecked you were, never betting again, etc. I hope you are using some common sense in the amounts you are betting in regards to what you can afford in case you are to take any more big losses...err sorry..."robberies" going forward. I'm hoping to not hear any deep, heartfelt lamenting from you about how broke you are.

BOL man. I'll be watching for you on the grappling circuit because if you swept your instructor that means you're probably ready to tap Gall here in the near future.
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Tried to warn you lol...just trying to look out for my fellow Wisconsinite!
 
No idea why Gall is now becoming heavy favourite, considering he has beaten absolutely no-one of note. Leaning Northcutt purely due to experience. Obviously, if he can get it to the floor, then its his world, but I don't see it being that easy for him.

Also, same again with Jouban, reckon this is coin flip fight, so taken Jouban at dog odds.
 
mkess101 said:
LOL I'm not sure why I'm responding here...


I guess it's good you are "so successful". Very odd that you were posting things talking about how wrecked you were, never betting again, etc. I hope you are using some common sense in the amounts you are betting in regards to what you can afford in case you are to take any more big losses...err sorry..."robberies" going forward. I'm hoping to not hear any deep, heartfelt lamenting from you about how broke you are.
.
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I was so used to winning big amounts for half a year now. One break even night or night where I lost little bit made me sad. You know I want to win every event but its not possible. I'm kinda emotional but glad that I can avoid going tilt. If it's bad night for me I just throw few words here and there but its all good. fuckin parlays feed good amount of money if ur good at them. i just asking.. have you grappled in your life before?
 
lawmills2006 said:
No idea why Gall is now becoming heavy favourite, considering he has beaten absolutely no-one of note. Leaning Northcutt purely due to experience. Obviously, if he can get it to the floor, then its his world, but I don't see it being that easy for him.

Also, same again with Jouban, reckon this is coin flip fight, so taken Jouban at dog odds.
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Yeah surprised about that too. Thought last minute money would come on sage...gall never fought a guy who has had a win in MMA RonT. 0-0, Punk 0-0, Jackson 0-0...now he is fighting a guy who is world class athlete with 8 wins in MMA (3 of them in UFC) amazing. Glad we can get all the answers in 15 hours or so. This events discussion has been hot.
 
Officer_Brown said:
I was so used to winning big amounts for half a year now. One break even night or night where I lost little bit made me sad. You know I want to win every event but its not possible. I'm kinda emotional but glad that I can avoid going tilt. If it's bad night for me I just throw few words here and there but its all good. fuckin parlays feed good amount of money if ur good at them. i just asking.. have you grappled in your life before?
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LOL yes, yes I have. I competed in some of those NAGA tournaments. I trained for just under 4 years total. I was fairly casual, 1-2 times per week. Tourneys very sporadically, not a lot of them. I did okay, but just didn't have time to put in the amount of training needed to get really good. Plus I wasn't young when I started, was already past my physical prime. Still was athletic enough to have some very moderate success at lower levels.

That is why I know legit grappling talent when I see it. I'm gonna give you the benefit of the doubt and say you don't really believe the stuff you were saying before. They don't give you a free pass to the NAGA world championships because of good looks. And you don't have a pretty competitive match once you get there against a guy like Ryan because he's "toying with you". You know that's stupid, I don't need to tell it to you.
 
Gall striking and this was just year ago. Trevino would kill him standing up. Look how slow his punches are. Sage has seen punches 5x faster than this his whole life. KO/TKO standing is very unlikely...

 
Officer_Brown said:
Gall striking and this was just year ago. Trevino would kill him standing up. Look how slow his punches are. Sage has seen punches 5x faster than this his whole life. KO/TKO standing is very unlikely...

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Certainly no one is going to proclaim him a good striker at this point, but for his first MMA fight ever it wasn't all bad. He came out aggressive, threw some decent combos, hit a takedown and dominated on the ground. And just to fit in and say something ridiculous, Ron Templeton probably lasted longer than Sage would in the same positions. :)
 
Stunna77 said:
Certainly no one is going to proclaim him a good striker at this point, but for his first MMA fight ever it wasn't all bad. He came out aggressive, threw some decent combos, hit a takedown and dominated on the ground. And just to fit in and say something ridiculous, Ron Templeton probably lasted longer than Sage would in the same positions. :)
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I think they should sign that dude up to fight Punk
 
Collaborate and make money is what should be happening in here. Instead it's like a group of sophomore chicks at prom arguing over who's dress looks better.
 
Oblivian said:
Let me be clear - I'm not insinuating you are lying. My point is that a lot of people that truly think they are a betting god really don't have as good of results as they think when you look at the true numbers. They probably haven't even looked at their true numbers and stats before. I've also noticed a lot of people really don't do so hot at pre-event betting anymore and depend on live betting. That's all good, but those people shouldn't be acting as though their opinion pre fight holds a lot of clout when their pre fight bets aren't much to write home about. And again, I am not talking about you because I honestly have no idea with you. It seems you take a lot of things personally when I'm just talking in general - not specifically about you.

Again, all that I'm asking is anyone who "slays the books" or says they are a "betting god" to post their bets. If this forum is really supposed to be about helping others make money like you claim, why the hell wouldn't you do it after locking in your bets? That's what these threads were built on for years - people sharing their bets.
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I notice that if people are wrong on their pre-fight bets, they seemed to always have hedged on the other side (which I generally believe) but if their original pick wins it is always BOOM and nobody ever hedged those bets (EZ and a few others always post their live bets and do actually hedge off winners). I don't really care, it is just weird to me that people try to do this an an anonymous board. I admit I do average at best lol
 
mkess101 said:
LOL yes, yes I have. I competed in some of those NAGA tournaments. I trained for just under 4 years total. I was fairly casual, 1-2 times per week. Tourneys very sporadically, not a lot of them. I did okay, but just didn't have time to put in the amount of training needed to get really good. Plus I wasn't young when I started, was already past my physical prime. Still was athletic enough to have some very moderate success at lower levels.

That is why I know legit grappling talent when I see it. I'm gonna give you the benefit of the doubt and say you don't really believe the stuff you were saying before. They don't give you a free pass to the NAGA world championships because of good looks. And you don't have a pretty competitive match once you get there against a guy like Ryan because he's "toying with you". You know that's stupid, I don't need to tell it to you.
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See, this is where I do worry, Mickey is a legit grappler, no doubt about it. However, the amount of guys who are godly on the mats, who cannot translate it to the cage. Watching tape on Gall, I don't think we've seen enough from him to warrant playing him as favourite. Thats just me, I may eat my words and watch him grapplefuck my money on sage away, but I don't see it. I may be fading Gall too much, but I feel this is too much, too soon for him.
 
I'm on Sage, I hate the queer but when fists hit chins, body's go limp and I see Gall doing a face plant LETS GO
 
EzFlyer said:
man, idk. i think so. but all i have is eddie dec at +340 or something, small. i'm aware miz has been finished a few times recently, but sometimes eddie holds back too much, it could be a cautious 15 min fight, hard to know
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Yea, I think three years ago Eddie murks Miz, but at this point I'm skeptical...however I do have enough faith to put him in a 2-team parlay...small though, and will play the over. I'll have faith that the EW who smoked Saenz shows up.


mkess101 said:
I think you're right homie. I took Hirota dec +205. I don't love the line but it's come down even more to +190 so I guess I'll live with my line.

I think it's pretty unlikely he stops Miller, so just gonna go with this prop I think.
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BOL

Oblivian said:
Hirota's grappling ability isn't unknown dude. He's got a shitload of fights out there against solid competition. He's outmatched on the ground, but his takedown defense is the biggest part of his game. He's an anti-grappler against someone who doesn't have good takedowns. I think Cole grapplefucking is one of the least likely outcomes honestly. He's probably more likely to knock him down standing or capitalize on a mistake to catch a sub. Cole does not win many decisions.

Do you really have to do all the fighter bashing too dude? I think you are going to see EZ crack down soon...
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Hirota is first and foremost a judo player with a credentialed background in Sumo competition. Like you said though, by and large he's an anti-grappler who uses his judo/sumo base to remain vertical and throw hands. If I could point people to one Hirota fight that would show off his grappling and wrestling skills it would probably be the Pat Healy fight. Hirota took that fight on super short notice against a smothering wrestler/grappler in Healy, and yet he arguably won the fight (IIRC) but in the very least put on a extremely competitive performance on weeks notice against a fighter who is around two weight classes larger. In a lot of ways Healy is similar to Cole, though he is much bigger with a far better TD game.
 
I currently have a unit on PVZ. I'm most likely going to hedge out and put a unit on KH. KH is just better everywhere. What is PVZ's path to victory? We're just counting on KH to gas out and because PVZ is bigger? KH is a life long martial artist. PVZ is just a horse face dancer.
 
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