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UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 15, 2017.

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  1. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Nate is the dog. o1.5 is -115. Pleaseeeeeee give me a super juicy line on Nate dec
     
  2. Cptn1NSAN0 shows no mercy

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    You'll probably get your wish but I could see Nate finishing. Alvey is a tough sumbitch but Nate still has big power
     
  3. lawmills2006 Purple Belt

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    I hate not being able to snag opening lines as UK bookies release so much later than 5dimes etc.

    Love Marquardt as underdog, I feel he should be favorite here, don't see what Alvey has for him, Nate is smart enough to stay away from those heavy hands.

    Also like Cerrone and Shevchenko....at the right prices.
     
  4. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Yeah and have fun standing at kicking range with Assuncao, he's gonna kick the living shit out of your legs.
     
  5. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I'd be surprised tbh. Nate has power but like you said, Alvey has a hell of a chin. Plus I feel like one of the few things left I can count on with Nate is fight IQ after the Tamdan fight. And if I can count on that, I have to believe he'll be wrestling in this one too and staying on the outside on the feet well outside of Alvey's power. Alvey has zero footwork, so no point in giving him what he wants and stepping into punching range.

    Most importantly though is the value. Fucking PRAYING for over +400 on that line
     
  6. rille31 Brown Belt

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    If mas nc is juicy Im taking a stab, mas got a chin and cerrone is hittable
     
  7. Cptn1NSAN0 shows no mercy

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    I agree with you overall, but one of my new years betting resolutions is to lay off hitting so many props, I'll just hit Nate's ML and be happy. We've seen stronger chins cracked by weaker punchers. But I know they are more your style. I was actually having a lot of success with them between November and December last year but I think long term I should just cool it.

    If we get +4xx I'll break that resolution real quick lol.
     
  8. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Alvey actually gets wobbled quite often. I think Nate has about a 50/50 chance between a decision or a finish if he picks up the win. Also, if you think about it, Alvey rarely faces guys who strike.
     
  9. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I'll prob sprinkle some on his moneyline too. Idk when the last time Nate scored a sub is, but i'm kind of more worried about that than a KO. I just dk what Alvey's guard is going to look like vs someone with a legit top game
     
  10. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Prices gonna play a major factor here but yeah luckily I have 2 weeks to think about how to spread out my money. Alvey is def hittable, so maybe its not worth full risk, and Nate isn't going to just Elias Theodorou him the whole time
     
  11. Cptn1NSAN0 shows no mercy

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    I believe it was against Te-Huna a couple years back. Actually Nate showed pretty much exactly the type of fight that you want to see heading into this one. Probaby a good one for tape watch
     
  12. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    it's crazy how much the perception of masvidal has changed over the past year or so. he was a decision machine and now everyone always thinks he'll finish dudes
     
  13. rille31 Brown Belt

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    for the record I dont think this goes the distance but @ +150 or better I think it holds value just because mas is so durable
     
  14. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Im not feeling the nate love. Hes pretty low volume himself and his chin is shot just like him. Hes had two nice stylistic fights. Alvey has good tdd nate aint the same bull gear free. Alvey took nicholsons shots who is a huge puncher. I like alvey for the ko here.
     
  15. piglord Black Belt

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    hoping for a good price on the jingliang/nash fight, i have a strong lean.

    i like nate at dog odds, need masvidal to get a bit longer. ngannou is a pass. i need to watch tape but i think assuncao could be parlay material (although not in love with the current price).
     
  16. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Just a reminder, this card is in high elevation. Cardio bigger factor than usual for sure
     
  17. chemmy Green Belt

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    I like Alvey too. I'm hoping to get him closer to even money though.
     
  18. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Ive bet ngannou every fight so far hes had in the ufc i think. Here i will be on arlovski @ +3xx ngannou shouldnt be this favoured.
     
  19. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Me too its dropping.
     
  20. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    man, idk. if we're looking at their last fights, marq was much more impressive to me than alvey
     
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