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UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 15, 2017.

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  1. pytycrys Purple Belt

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    Masvidal's ML will get better by time I guess. So it would probably be wiser to wait. A lot of people will bet Cerrone. I will go with 2 units on Masvidal then.
    Same thing with Ngannou and Arlovski, I will go with the dog
     
  2. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Nicholson hits very hard for all his weaknesses. Mccrory...meh
     
  3. vkram Brown Belt

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    Watched tape on Shevchenko/Pena. Typical striker vs grappler match up which means that the fight will be decided in the clinch IMO.

    Pena's striking is very sloppy and kind of reminds me of Brunson rushing in except the fact that she knows that she has to get it to the ground. In the clinch she is pretty strong but did have a bit of trouble with Jessica Eye. On the ground she is very slick, even if she ends up on the bottom. From the top she is very aggressive. Her cardio seems to be pretty good too, 3 rounds grapple heavy fight with Zingano and looked fine after.

    Shevchenko is obviously the better striker and a good clinch game too. Kept clinching with Kaufman and beating her there despite being the better striker. Great cardio and can keep the same output for 5 rounds as seen against Holm. The concern with her is the lack of punching power and the her game off her back. Against both Kaufman and Nunes she seemed pretty clueless when takendown and couldn't get up until her opponents went for a finish at the end of the round and got careless. Her top game is pretty good though, took Kaufman down and troubled Nunes (who was gassed at that point). Her clinch downs are quite effective too.

    Overall, I think I have to favour Pena here. I think she can bumrush Shevchenko and clinch up. Although it will be very close in the clinch I think Pena's size and athleticism give her the slight edge. If it Pena ends up on top then she is very likely to keep that position until the end of the round since Shevchenko isn't great at getting up from the bottom. Shevchenko can win the fight by avoiding the clinch and catching Pena coming in, somewhat like Holm did against Rousey. I just think that if the fight ends up on the ground it is likely to look like Nunes/Shevchenko without Pena gassing out.

    Interested to see what the odds are on fight doesn't go the distance and Pena ITD are.

    Would love to hear what you guys think.
     
  4. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    ^^^Honestly, so easy to make an argument for either Pena or Shev. Kind of wish I did more on o4.5 when it was -140 and just livebet the rest. I slightly favor Shev at the moment to counter her enough to win a decision, but for all we know Pena scores one td and Shev can't get up and thats the story of all the rounds. Tough to call.
     
  5. vkram Brown Belt

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    Yeah, very easy to argue one way or another. I just think that Pena is a more dangerous grappler than Shevchenko is a dangerous striker.
     
  6. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    I believe Pena in what she is saying leading up to this fight. I think she will come out strong and look for the r1 finish. If it goes over then it almost certainly means Shev has taken control. I don't believe Pena can win a decision here (just my opinion)
     
  7. vkram Brown Belt

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    Pena hasn't shown a bad gas tank like Nunes though so I don't think it a certainty that she gasses if she doesn't finish early.
     
  8. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Pretty much agree and will be on Pena as well. Nicely written
     
  9. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    I am not saying Pena will gas badly. It is just that Shev is like a female Frankie Edgar and has this insane skill to just consistently stick and move to win rounds. If Pena doesn't get a finish early then Shev will just shadow box her way to a decision.

    This is like a HH v. Meisha Tate fight. Either Holly outpoints her or Tate gets the TD and finishes.
     
  10. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Will be very surprised if Pena can win in round 1. She lost a round to Jessica Eye and layoff Zingano, and Shev didn't look lost with Nunes on top. She likes to talk shit though, so I take what shes saying with a grain of salt. If she does go all out, that would be real stupid in a 5 round fight at elevation
     
  11. AffectEffect Banned Banned

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    I was considering marq last night, but at near evens I would much rather have the o1.5 @-120ish. Alvey has amazing counter wrestling, and sometimes throws almost no volume himself.
     
  12. AffectEffect Banned Banned

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    @vkram

    Shevs big problem is that she is undersized for the div. She should be fighting at 125 or 115.

    Listening to a elizabeth Phillips interview a few days ago while capping for the letsson fight and I thought she made a good point: "Shev probably has the technical ability to nullify Pena early, but the size and grinding style of Pena will eventually get schev down, and Pena finishes her late." I like that angle.

    The biggest question mark for me here is, who has the better gas tank? My guess, because of the size edge and fight style, it will be Pena.
     
  13. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Cant believe I didn't pull the trigger on Pena at 2.30, now I'll just wait and see what happens.
     
  14. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    i don't agree with this.. pena isn't a notoriously slow starter and shevchenko can take a round sometimes to get into the fight. i absolutely think pena can get a td and/or win rd 1.
     
  15. AffectEffect Banned Banned

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    I think JB meant get an actual finish in round 1.
     
  16. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Yeah I meant round 1 finish. Pena will def start fast and likely win round 1 (if she loses round 1 and Shev has decent lb price will smash), but if shes talking about going for a round 1 finish which Lem alluded to I just can't see that happening and it puts her at risk to gas in elevation.
     
  17. piglord Black Belt

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    masvidal needs to get a bit longer before i drop an atomic bomb on him.
     
  18. HeDucking Im so Groovy Banned

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    At this moment, the fighters I like are dogs. I really think Mas beats Cerrone and at +150, the PLAY.

    Hoping their price get even better.
     
  19. Card Silver Belt

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    Gas tanks will be an issue.
     
  20. AffectEffect Banned Banned

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    Like EZ, I am very surprised by the masvidal love. We got a guy who has spent the past few years losing split Dec to middling opponents vs a guy who has only lost to the best for the past 6 years.

    Can a masvidal supporter please break it down for me beyond "he will pressure him". For example, who wins the grappling, how does mas handle the kicks etc. Does anyone recall Masvidal ever effectively working someone to the body?
     
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