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UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 15, 2017.

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  1. Ukram Silver Belt

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    bet365, ladbrokes, unibet, 888, william hill all got live betting few others also.

    Unibet nearly always have live bet from first fight but terrible limits/line freezes, generally I have found ladbrokes to close lines often but other times left wide open so hit and miss, william hill were similar but not used them for a year, 888 just another unibet clone but slightly worse with line freezes and restrictions.

    Bet365 and paddypower are my 2 top favs for live betting, I tend to use unibet for the first few fights though since b365 and paddpower tend to go live from main prelims most of the time.
     
  2. Ukram Silver Belt

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  3. TimCoreCombat Green Belt

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    Yeah, she was at Tiger the same time I was there so I guess I have a little too much personal influence on this play. Nonetheless, I'm stuck at home, waiting on my surgeon to figure out how to put humpty dumpty back together again (I have to have my calf worked on and ankle as well now, it's a mess) so I might as well have something to give me a rush.

    I may hedge out a little bit depending on how the day goes for me with college basketball but I hit Serena to win 10 units from the beginning of the tournament so I'm ok with losing cash.
     
  4. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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  5. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    What about him? I'm confused
     
  6. edole Brown Belt

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    I like Knight over Caceres.

    I think skill for skill they are pretty comparable, but Knight is way more aggressive and scrappier.
     
  7. Cptn1NSAN0 shows no mercy

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    Sorry about your leg man. That sounds brutal. What do you plan to do to occupy your time for the next few months?
     
  8. Cptn1NSAN0 shows no mercy

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    Knight wasnt able to cut off Hooker but everyone thinks he'll be able to handle Bruce Leeroy's muevement? Wrestling is his only path to victory here imo
     
  9. bet the house White Belt

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    Hello everyone,first time poster and been lurking for a couple months. I appreciate all the good info here. That being said what's the general consensus on sterling/assuncao ?
     
  10. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    This.
    Zafir took him down and made it look easy. he passed the guard also quite easily.. and he is not some grappling phenom. he got too comfortable there and got reversed by Li. Don't think Li can do this to Nash. Nash striking is not bad also. Asians have stupid fight IQ also... mark my words Li is about to do something stupid.
     
  11. TimCoreCombat Green Belt

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    Thanks man. I have no idea honestly. I'm used to training five days a week and I'm already losing my mind and it hasn't been a week. They're telling me it'll be a year recovery because of the other injuries so I'm pretty down about it right now.

    I think I'm going to just help out with the beginner classes (just hands obviously) and travel with some of the fighters to their fights, help them with weight cuts, etc.
     
  12. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    hey Brick. in case you get banned you have another account ready?

    Anyway the forum is kinda 50:50 on that fight. Best elite level bettors ( me included) are on Sterling. some still believe in Rafa.But lets wait and see.
     
  13. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Think he means hes a div 1 wrestler who didnt look great on tape but stepped up his game on ufc debut

    I dont think nash's wrestling is gonna look much different here tho and i think li can take him down too
     
  14. Caicara Purple Belt

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    If you want to keep up with my breakdown, please check my first post:
    http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufn-103-rodriguez-vs-penn-phoenix.3429257/page-33#post-125924341


    1 - UFC.gif

    Alright, let's start by the last event's results. I did not have a good overall picks %, but some things are worth pointing out.

    I mainly had parlays in this event, and one of my hedgers was CourtMcGee

    My wrong picks were Held ( I got him in this fight, J-Lo too haha ), McGee ( Also got McGee, but I understand the decision - maybe the new judging? ), Moraga ( Pettis won - but close fight ), Saenz ( Debatable as well, but I think Mendes won ), and Smoliakov, who honestly I did not have a clue about how the fight would go.

    So, overall, no big deal. I got Harris ITD right and Moraga GTD as well :)

    So, for this next event, here goes my cents:

    ______________
    ______________



    5 - Peña - DEC

    After reading so many comments about how Valentina will run through Peña here, I certainly got a confidence decrease in Peña, but I still have to point that Peña is relentless, pressures a lot and maybe that will work perfectly agaisnt Valentina. She may have been training for infinite rounds, but in her own way. If Peña manages to take her down and put her game on, Valentina may lose by Dec or late rounds sub.

    VERY close fight.

    ____________________


    5 - Cerrone - DEC

    Ok, this is another ULTRA close fight for me. Really. Masvidal is very confident and I think that his relentless pressure style maybe cause Cerrone big trouble ( RDA deja vu ), but how to be so sure about it when he is fighting a guy that is on a tear ( 12-1 in his last 13 and lost to the same guy twice only )...
    I hate picking someone in this fight, but Cerrone's technique and momentum decides it for me.

    P.S.: I think that Masvidal DEC (+350) and specially Masvidal KO ( +550 ) and 1/2 (+1000/+1200) have great value.

    ____________________

    2 - Ngannou - KO 1/2 - ITD

    Alright, my first Group 2 pick. Ngannou is a beast and I would put him in Group 1 but, of course, stuff make me a bit less confident. I think that in th heavyweight division, strategy counts a bit less than brute force.
    Don't get me wrong, but a guy like Ngannou can muscle out of a lot of situations. The guy is a machine and a great prospect for me, but Arlovski has always been a powerhouse and may catch Ngannou right?
    There is also a slight possibility that he triest to clinch/grind him to a decision. Anyway, almost a group 1 choice for me.

    I also think that Arlovski KO 1/2 have great value.( +1100/+1700 )

    ___________________

    5 - Caceres - DEC ( GTD )

    So many hard picks in this event. The cancelled bouts were good for me...Well, let's continue.

    Knight is good, but I'm not really impressed yet. He hasn't fought anyone on Caceres' level and Lee Roy's elusiveness may be a threat for Knight. I think that this fight may be boring after the first round.

    Good value on Caceres dec ( +350 )

    ___________________

    4 - Alvey - DEC

    Alright, this one is interesting. I understand that all of you prefer Marquardt because of the momentum and some good wins, plus experience and ground game...But I think that Alvey edges it. It is funny, indeed, but I think that his style is very similar to Hendo's without the H-Bomb.

    I got the snoozefest feeling. Marquardt will try to get some takedowns without success, Alvey stuffs and jabs, and maybe gets a tko/ko, but unlikely...

    I see GREAT value on Alvey dec +600.

    ___________________

    5 - Sterling - DEC

    Gosh, another ultra close fight. Sterling has let me down on his last bout and made me lose a lot of money. Fuck him and Caraway...But the guy is talented. Assuncao made a good fight agaisnt the great TJ even after the layoff, but styles make fights and I think Sterling is a very good prospect. Unpredictable fight, I cannot understand how someone can be confident here.
    Ah, it's worth mentioning that Sterling made bad decisions on his last bout, some low fight IQ flashes, but I think he learned from it.

    ___________________

    4 - Nash - KO 1/2 ( ITD )

    Nash impressed me a bit. I would've put him in Group 3, but it is a debut. I don't see anything great in Li Jingliang and Bobby's explosiveness should warrant him a KO/TKO early on.

    Great value on Nash KO ( +375 ), and Nash KO 1/2 ( +700/+1000 )

    ___________________

    5 - Johnson - KO 2/3

    I'm tired of close fights. Henrique da Silva is a bit underrated right now, but we are not so sure about Craig's potential just yet. Johnson is a great wrestler and us, Brazilians, usually don't like to fight them unless we have great TDD or ultra great off the back jits ( Werdum, Maia...).

    Da Silva gets tired easily too, and despite being more technical, there's nothing worse than a tired fighter. I could've put Johnson in group 4, but it is a debut. Be careful.

    ___________________

    4 - Di Chirico - DEC

    Curious fight. How good is Di Chirico? How good is Spicely? Spicely capitalized on Santos's mistake ( going 100% for the early knockout in his hometown ) and made me lose money again!

    I remember Di Chirico's debut and liked him. I think that Spicely's toolbox is limited and that may cost him the fight. If the fight goes on the ground though...

    I kinda believe the kid. He can stuff takedowns and jab all night. He won't gas.

    __________________

    4 - Lima - KO 1/2 - ITD

    Good fight ahead. Lima doesn't show a lot of fight IQ, but he is very agressive, fearless and a bit technical. He has also fought harder fights and Kimball's footage didn't impress me. His loss to Camozzi also makes me more confident on my bet...Damn, Camozzi is an average at best. And much lighter than Lima...

    __________________

    5 - Shelton - DEC

    Just a gut feeling. This fight could go either way, but Shelton edges it standing, imo. I don't think that Pantoja will be able to take him down but he also won't take too many risks. Flyweights also have a tendency of going the distance, but I won't bet confidently on that.

    __________________

    5 - Cottrell - Sub 1/2

    Cottrell has shown good potential and made a good fight in ultra short notice agaisnt the tank Michel Prazeres. He has decent standup and good ground game. Overall, he seems to be better than Gonzales - he hasn't impressed me at all.
     
  15. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Curse your soul for saying a man from Asia can outwrestle a Murican
     
  16. NewcastleTom Purple Belt

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    Besides the math of it, I don't get the "I wasn't sure about one fight" and did a 6 fighter parlay with fighter A and the same 6 team parlay with fighter B of the same fight. I mean why don't you just do a 5 fighter parlay and skip that fight if that is the case
     
  17. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Cmon dude cut me some slack i do think a murican is wrestlefuckin a south murican tonight tho!
     
  18. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    Stopped reading when you said Pena by decision. everyone here are big on shevchenko so dont fuck with our nerves.


    [​IMG]
     
  19. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Not good enough when you're saying an Asian who couldn't stop Zafir's takedowns will get the D1 Murican to the ground.

    But let it be known, if you are right, everyone please watch you post toward me as I will be raging beyond belief
     
  20. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    365 has lb listed on sunday so main card for us. Tell me that doesnt mean shit?
     
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