UFC Fox 24 - DJ vs Reis - Kansas City

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iGnP said:
Man, i dont think Jacare is gonna have an easy time taking Whittaker down.
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Not "easy", no, I agree. But again Jacare has such a luxury when he pursues TD's of not worrying about ending up on his back. Most guys need to set up TD's lest they shoot from too far a distance and end up scrambling to not end up being the one taken down. Jacare just doesn't need to be concerned with that.

He will willingly strike often, which is why I give Whit at least a reasonable chance to pull the upset. And Whittaker uses distance very well. There's definitely things to like if you are backing Whittaker, no doubt. But if Jacare doggedly pursues TD's from the start, I just don't know how Whittaker deals with it. And as @MMA Goodfella pointed out, the paranoia of being taken down also can limit the offensive striking game of a guy like Whittaker.
 
King_Brown said:
I think so. Pretty much all experts are on Stephens. I have no idea why odds are that close or where is money on Moicano coming from. This is weird. Stephens deserves to be 4-1 fav
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I'm very surprised that Stephens is less juiced than guys like Sterling coming off two losses or Sanchez who only has a couple UFC fights.
 
MMA Diversity said:
Hmm he can't lie because he tracks his bets 3rd party. But his ROI is only like 12% so he's actually below average to me.
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Yep, he calls himself #1 when half this jthtead is better and my ROI is much higher with avg bets are +225 L180 & +219 L365 with ROI of +28.34 and +17.03 respectively.
 

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Agent Mulder said:
Noone here does. It's a running joke here to post his picks since they're favourites 99.99% of the time. He's the king of juice.
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With his insistence on picking favourites every time (bar Whittaker) he's essentially just selling the bookmaker's odds back to the public for thousands of pounds a pop. He's a fucking genius.
 
t6p said:
That's the big question. Whittaker spent a lot of the first few minutes of the Brunson fight with his back pressed against the cage. I think if that happens here, he's getting taken down and at that point he's in serious trouble. He's a purple belt and I haven't seen anything that leads me to believe he can survive with Jacare on top of him. I don't think Jacare is going to be completely outclassed standing either. That said, I personally cap Jacare around -250 but I can see arguments for playing Whittaker in the +200 range.
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mkess101 said:
Not "easy", no, I agree. But again Jacare has such a luxury when he pursues TD's of not worrying about ending up on his back. Most guys need to set up TD's lest they shoot from too far a distance and end up scrambling to not end up being the one taken down. Jacare just doesn't need to be concerned with that.

He will willingly strike often, which is why I give Whit at least a reasonable chance to pull the upset. And Whittaker uses distance very well. There's definitely things to like if you are backing Whittaker, no doubt. But if Jacare doggedly pursues TD's from the start, I just don't know how Whittaker deals with it. And as @MMA Goodfella pointed out, the paranoia of being taken down also can limit the offensive striking game of a guy like Whittaker.
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Fair enough. We shall see tonight! I just don't see how you can cap Jacare at -200 range or better when Whittaker has a very realistic path to victory and at the prime of his career versus a guy who is 37. More so, Jacare just doesn't look the same physically than he has in the past. It was overlooked in his last fight because a declining Jacare is still much better than Tim
 
Fucking wild that Duquesnoy is gonna close more juiced than DJ.
 
iGnP said:
Fair enough. We shall see tonight! I just don't see how you can cap Jacare at -200 range or better when Whittaker has a very realistic path to victory and at the prime of his career versus a guy who is 37. More so, Jacare just doesn't look the same physically than he has in the past. It was overlooked in his last fight because a declining Jacare is still much better than Tim
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This is 100% a valid point. Enough to mean he can't secure TD's and work his ground game? I tend to doubt it, but for sure it's a variable that has to be taken into account.
 
iGnP said:
Fair enough. We shall see tonight! I just don't see how you can cap Jacare at -200 range or better when Whittaker has a very realistic path to victory and at the prime of his career versus a guy who is 37. More so, Jacare just doesn't look the same physically than he has in the past. It was overlooked in his last fight because a declining Jacare is still much better than Tim
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I agree his physique doesn't looked as good as it used to, but IMO there hasn't been any evidence of a decline in performance in the cage. He arguably beat Romero only a year and a half ago.

But yea, really looking forward to this one. Seems to be the most debated fight on the card. May the better man win.
 
t6p said:
I agree his physique doesn't looked as good as it used to, but IMO there hasn't been any evidence of a decline in performance in the cage. He arguably beat Romero only a year and a half ago.

But yea, really looking forward to this one. Seems to be the most debated fight on the card. May the better man win.
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I don't mean to take away from Jacares performance against Yoel (and I haven't seen it recently so I could be getting the details wrong) but didn't he only have success in the third when Yoel was already tired? I kinda remember him being shut down in the second round and the only argument for him winning that round was due to Yoel's inactivity. Correct me if I'm wrong

Whittaker isn't gonna gas out nor is he a low output guy. He won't defend takedowns like Yoel but I think he can do a good job of it while having success in the stand up
 
what does everything think of the demetrious over 3.5 at -175. Reis seems game enough to avoid anything early. A finish is very possible but thinking that would later in round 4 or 5.
 
Monster Meat said:
what does everything think of the demetrious over 3.5 at -175. Reis seems game enough to avoid anything early. A finish is very possible but thinking that would later in round 4 or 5.
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im playing it. dj wont sub him tho. will be a 5 round kickboxing fight
 
Cptn1NSAN0 said:
Fucking wild that Duquesnoy is gonna close more juiced than DJ.
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is your av of norton from rounders? fucking great film, re-watched it recently, some good lessons for ppl like us itt lol.

Joseph Budden said:
http://www.mmafighting.com/2017/4/1...-ufc-on-fox-24-demetrious-johnson-wilson-reis

lolll @ this guy saying betting DJ -900 is fine. This is why you don't let casuals write gambling articles

EDIT LMFAOOOO@ him suggesting a DJ + Volkov parlay. What? Why? Just bet Volkov su. Why do these websites never seek real gamblers for these articles?
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some of them are dogshit for sure, some bookmakers even have ppl do write ups for them which are terrible, a lot of the time i get the feeling they are writers for other sports and are relatively clueless on mma knowledge, awfull considering how uninformed casualy bettors are about the sport as it is. betfair had a guy write a column on their site for the diaz/mcgregor fight saying to bet conor because it might be fixed to make a 3rd fight for the money..luckilly it only got a few views, it won but man they can be so irresponsible at times with their reasoning.

iGnP said:
I don't mean to take away from Jacares performance against Yoel (and I haven't seen it recently so I could be getting the details wrong) but didn't he only have success in the third when Yoel was already tired? I kinda remember him being shut down in the second round and the only argument for him winning that round was due to Yoel's inactivity. Correct me if I'm wrong

Whittaker isn't gonna gas out nor is he a low output guy. He won't defend takedowns like Yoel but I think he can do a good job of it while having success in the stand up
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I gave jacare round 2, it was a bit of a stalemate, jacare would of taken romero down but yoel grabbed the fence for a good 3 or 4 seconds, he then reversed the takedown attempt and took jacare down but the ref stood them up and took the takedown away from yoel, could of been why 2 of the judges gave it to romero imo.. I would of scored it a draw but romero did way more damage so I think the decision was ok in the end. round 3 I thought jacare was stupid to go for the takedown, there was like 2 mins left and romero looked done taking shots agains the cage, jacare didn't have enough time to work his JJ in the end.
 
iGnP said:
I don't mean to take away from Jacares performance against Yoel (and I haven't seen it recently so I could be getting the details wrong) but didn't he only have success in the third when Yoel was already tired? I kinda remember him being shut down in the second round and the only argument for him winning that round was due to Yoel's inactivity. Correct me if I'm wrong

Whittaker isn't gonna gas out nor is he a low output guy. He won't defend takedowns like Yoel but I think he can do a good job of it while having success in the stand up
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You're remembering it pretty much the way it went down. Both guys were pretty inactive in the first until the spinning back first/gnp from Yoel for the last 90 secs or so of the round. The second was more of the same and you could really make an argument for either guy winning it. However, at one point it looked like Jacare was in position to land a body lock takedown and Yoel grabbed the fence, which put him in top position. The ref stood them up but it could have made a huge difference if Jacare got top position there. And yes, Yoel was gassed in the third and it was all Jacare.

You make good points and I don't necessarily disagree with your play on Whittaker, there are certainly reasons to feel confident in him here. But, I'm on Jacare on -190 and I like the price. I don't believe that Whittaker's advantage on the feet is by that wide of a margain (remains to be seen), especially with the threat of the takedown. And I do believe that Jacare's advantage on the ground is to the point where one takedown could end the fight.

EDIT: @Roads55 is on point with his breakdown and he beat me to it
 
Roads55 said:
is your av of norton from rounders? fucking great film, re-watched it recently, some good lessons for ppl like us itt lol.



some of them are dogshit for sure, some bookmakers even have ppl do write ups for them which are terrible, a lot of the time i get the feeling they are writers for other sports and are relatively clueless on mma knowledge, awfull considering how uninformed casualy bettors are about the sport as it is. betfair had a guy write a column on their site for the diaz/mcgregor fight saying to bet conor because it might be fixed to make a 3rd fight for the money..luckilly it only got a few views, it won but man they can be so irresponsible at times with their reasoning.



I gave jacare round 2, it was a bit of a stalemate, jacare would of taken romero down but yoel grabbed the fence for a good 3 or 4 seconds, he then reversed the takedown attempt and took jacare down but the ref stood them up and took the takedown away from yoel, could of been why 2 of the judges gave it to romero imo.. I would of scored it a draw but romero did way more damage so I think the decision was ok in the end. round 3 I thought jacare was stupid to go for the takedown, there was like 2 mins left and romero looked done taking shots agains the cage, jacare didn't have enough time to work his JJ in the end.
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t6p said:
You're remembering it pretty much the way it went down. Both guys were pretty inactive in the first until the spinning back first/gnp from Yoel for the last 90 secs or so of the round. The second was more of the same and you could really make an argument for either guy winning it. However, at one point it looked like Jacare was in position to land a body lock takedown and Yoel grabbed the fence, which put him in top position. The ref stood them up but it could have made a huge difference if Jacare got top position there. And yes, Yoel was gassed in the third and it was all Jacare.

You make good points and I don't necessarily disagree with your play on Whittaker, there are certainly reasons to feel confident in him here. But, I'm on Jacare on -190 and I like the price. I don't believe that Whittaker's advantage on the feet is by that wide of a margain (remains to be seen), especially with the threat of the takedown. And I do believe that Jacare's advantage on the ground is to the point where one takedown could end the fight.

EDIT: @Roads55 is on point with his breakdown and he beat me to it
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TOTALLY forgot about the fence grab honestly
 
Joseph Budden said:
FOTN is kind of tough for this card, but i'm taking stabs on two lowkey candidates. Green vs Mago +1000 and Collier vs Clark +1150

Ill also stab Duquesnoy Fastest KO +700 and Jacare fastest sub +450
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I hit both of those "fastest" plays also. I love the French Tom +700 despite my action on Williams
 
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