1. The official Sherdog Store is back! Check it out! » Discuss it here! »

UFC Fox 25 - Weidman vs Gastelum - Long Island

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 8, 2017.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Sapp Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2017
    Messages:
    12,057
    Likes Received:
    0
    I like The Chris here. Surprised to see he's a dog against Gastelum who I consider to be unproven at the top level. Not to mention that he has a huge size advantage.
     
  2. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2016
    Messages:
    1,892
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sweden
    He sure does, the Munoz elbow is among my favorites ever, but I expect him to come in wrestling and use his size, Gastelum should have faster hands though.
     
  3. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2017
    Messages:
    2,928
    Likes Received:
    460
    The problem is, if he uses wrestling.. he will gas after the secound round.
    If it would be a 3 round fight than I would be sure that Weidman wins a decision but its a 5 round fight.
     
  4. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2016
    Messages:
    1,892
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sweden
    That's why I think the play is to LB Gastelum after the first depending on how it goes.

    For me it goes:
    Weidman wrestles and gets the finish within ten minutes, or
    Gastelum outboxes him for a late stoppage.

    If he doesn't wrestle he gets punished standing, if he wrestles he will gas.
     
  5. t6p Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2016
    Messages:
    3,120
    Likes Received:
    93
    I tend to agree, but I could also easily see Kelvin not being able to put him away and winning by decision. I mean after the beating Rockhold put on Chris in the third he still survived well into the fourth.

    Or, and I think this is much less likely, Chris could win the first two rounds and steal one of the last three.
     
  6. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2016
    Messages:
    1,892
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sweden
    When you say it, Kelvin dec might be a good play.
     
  7. Monster Meat Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2016
    Messages:
    2,405
    Likes Received:
    437
    Weidman is a solid fighter but to be fair he has looked horrendous in his last 3 fights. He gassed against rockhold and got beat up badly. Once again he started well against romero then gassed and got knocked out. Then he wins the first against mousasi gasses and gets picked apart on the feet. The silva wins are impressive no doubt but I think that's more of how good Anderson WAS his regression started with the first Weidman fight. With this being a 5 round fight and him needing to wrestle to win (which is the sole reason he gasses so soon) I really cant see him winning this. Gastelum has never been knocked out.
     
  8. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    philly
    He was beating rockhold
    He was beating Romero
    He was beating mousasi

    He found ways to lose (sort of in last one) but to say "he has looked horrendous" is nonsense
     
  9. quincy k Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2016
    Messages:
    3,653
    Likes Received:
    0
    i agree he fought well in those fight but...

    he got kod by rockhold
    he got kod by romero
    he got kod by mousasi

    i have no idea how anyone is betting a guy coming off three ko losses. im not a big gastelum fan but being kod by head shots in three consecutive fights?

    you miss three three foot puts in a row it mentally fuks with you.
     
  10. t6p Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2016
    Messages:
    3,120
    Likes Received:
    93
    I'm with EZ on this one. I also don't think he gassed against Romero or Mousasi. He took a perfectly timed knee by one of the most explosive finishers in the UFC in the Romero fight and the end of the Mousasi fight was obviously strange circumstances.

    Let's also not forget that Rockhold, Mousasi and Romero are three of the top 5 MWs in the world right now, no shame in losing to any of them. I think Gastelum still has more to prove before we can put him on that level. He is small for this division and it could be an issue for him, we'll see.

    I do favor Gastelum here in a 5 rounder, but I'm not writing off Weidman whatsoever.
     
  11. Agent Mulder Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2015
    Messages:
    5,126
    Likes Received:
    0
  12. Barkus Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2007
    Messages:
    4,869
    Likes Received:
    369
    He looks good, then gasses, and then looks horrendous :p

    I don't think it's discussed enough how bad Weidman's cardio is. In hindsight I think he would have lost vs Anderson either time if the fight went deep.
     
  13. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2016
    Messages:
    1,892
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sweden
    I'm taking Gastelum with 2.5U at 1.72. I really think he should be more favored.
     
  14. vkram Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2014
    Messages:
    4,527
    Likes Received:
    12
    I'm a huge Weidman fan but I struggle to see how he wins here. He can use his wrestling and size to win the early rounds but its a 5 round fight and we've seen him gas a lot recently. I don't think he has looked horrible in his last 3 fights but also don't think its fair to say he was winning them either.

    vs Rockhold he was down on the scorecards but had the momentum before the wheel kick.
    vs Romero it was 1-1 going into the third.
    vs Mousasi he won the first round but looked noticeably tired in the 2nd and was getting out struck.

    In my opinion this will look like Kennedy/Gastelum. Weidman will have early success taking Gastelum down and/or controlling him. As the fight goes on he will get more tired and Gastelum will get his boxing going. For Weidman to win he either needs a finish in the first two rounds as many here have already said or win the first three rounds and not get blown out in the last two (for this to happen his cardio needs to improve).

    Kelvin's cardio has always seemed pretty good to me, although I'm not sure how good his TDD/get ups are. I remember him losing to Magny because he got taken down in the first three or so rounds but came back strong by dropping Magny twice in the fourth round. Against Kennedy he got controlled for the majority of round one but it was mainly Kennedy grinding him against the cage and kneeing his thighs/butt. At the end of the first Gastelum started to tee off on Kennedy who at that point was already gassed.

    All in all I think Gastelum wins this with Weidman looking good early but eventually getting tired and getting picked apart on the feet. I might be overly pessimistic as a Weidman fan though.
     
  15. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    philly
    not to nitpick, but weidman won rd 1 in all 3 fights, that's what "he was winning" meant

    i agree 5 rounds is bad for him here
     
  16. vkram Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2014
    Messages:
    4,527
    Likes Received:
    12
    I also thought that Weidman won the first round vs Rockhold but 2 out of 3 judges gave that round to Rockhold.
     
  17. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    philly
    ah, right on. it was competitive, but i gotcha
     
  18. timmyclax22 Green Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2016
    Messages:
    1,117
    Likes Received:
    0
    What do Gastelum's last 5 opponents all have in common?

    They're either old and/or not very good anymore and not top 15 fighters (I don't care about rankings).
     
  19. vkram Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2014
    Messages:
    4,527
    Likes Received:
    12
    Can only beat whats in front of you. A similar argument can be made against Weidman, his last 3 wins are against Belfort, Machida and Anderson.
     
  20. timmyclax22 Green Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2016
    Messages:
    1,117
    Likes Received:
    0
    Noted. But still fought and took rounds off of 3 of the top 5 guys.

    I think arguments can be made for both sides. Just pissed I missed Chris at +140 on 5d (it was there for like 1 minute lol).
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.