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UFC Fox 25 - Weidman vs Gastelum - Long Island

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 8, 2017.

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  1. t6p Brown Belt

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    I took Weidman NSC at +155 and it's still there. Unless you think he has a good chance of winning a decision I think it's the better option.
     
  2. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Idk man, you're betting a NSC bet on a guy who's been finished in his last three fights against someone who has never been close to being finished. More so, Weidman has shown to fade and this is a 5 rounder. Very risky imo
     
  3. t6p Brown Belt

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    I hear you but I think Weidman decision might be the least likely scenario in this fight. Gastelum hasn't finished anyone near Weidman's level and those 3 guys who finished Chris are absolute killers.

    Also, my plan is live bet Gas if Chris doesn't get him out of there in the first round or two and I only put 1u on it so not a big bet.
     
  4. iGnP Silver Belt

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    yea I prob won't touch Gastelum pre fight other than fliers on round 3-5 finishes but this is one of those fights where I'll def look to LB Gastelum if Weidman takes an early round
     
  5. t6p Brown Belt

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    Don't get me wrong, I don't think a Weidman finish is super likely or anything, but IIRC Magny had Gastelum in some really bad positions early in their fight and I'm thinking if Weidman can get him down (and I think he can) he might be able to capitalize on it. If it doesn't happen I'm at least hoping for decent odds on Gastelum between one of the early rounds, as I think Gastelum by late stoppage or decision will be most likely at that point.
     
  6. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    I am speechless that some people still think Weidman doesn't gas.

    He's fighting a guy with a great gas tank here. And he's fighting a guy who seems to get stronger and throw more volume late.


    I do agree Weidman probably humps him first round or 2
     
  7. t6p Brown Belt

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    I think most (all?) here are in agreement that 5 rounds is a huge advantage for Gastelum.
     
  8. MidgardSerpent Black Belt

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    I think its fair to say KG is a very durable guy, he took some hard shots from Woodley that didnt seem to face him at all. I remember him being badly rocked by Story though.
     
  9. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Was he really? I'll have to rewatch that fight. Thanks!
     
  10. MidgardSerpent Black Belt

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    Think it was at the end of the first round. Can anyone else confirm? I know Pyle had almost the same thing happening vs Story so I'm wondering if I'm mixing the two fights up.
     
  11. Jamah Green Belt

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    It was at the end of the 2nd round , Story knocked him down with a punch.
    In r1 Gastelum knocked Story down with a head kick.
     
  12. Dick #TeamGaethje Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    Disagree. The whole card is full of pick ems.
     
  13. Ballsaque Brown Belt

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    That doesn't make it bad for betting in anyway.

    Also extremely impressed with how people can call a card good or bad for betting, before seeing the odds.
     
  14. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    The only thing that concerns me in this fight is the size discrepancy.
     
  15. Jamah Green Belt

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    I said that it's good for betting because I have some strong leans, but I can change my mind about the card if the fighters turn to be juiced as fuck.
     
  16. Thunderflash500 Banned Banned

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    I see the fight being similar to Yoel vs Whittaker except Kelvins striking isn't great and Weidman isn't as bad of a striker as Yoel. I bet on Weidman. Weidman has been breaking a lot lately though. Yea Kelvin has a gas tank but he's sort of helpless against a guy like Chris. What offense can he mount assuming Weidman doesn't flat out gas out?
     
  17. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    Kelvins striking has gotten pretty damn good.

    At this point I'm OK assuming Chris will gas out midway through unless he can completely control Kelvin without using any effort himself
     
  18. piglord Black Belt

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    will be looking to play laflare and di Chirico as dogs.

    there's also a pretty blatant favs double that i'm sure everyone else is eyeing lol.
     
  19. Itsnotthatseriousmydude White Belt

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    I see this being a rough out for Kelvin. Rewatching his fights, his stand up is largely spamming 1-2 and hoping his hand speed will bring him to target. Not much set up or finesse. Chris has an amazing snatch single, something probably developed from fighting fifteen million southpaws in his career. I see him getting under those telegraphed punches and putting the size discrepancy on display with those single legs.
     
  20. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    i just think at the odds of -140 and what weidman has shown lately gastelum is a great bet. Aside from weight issues gastelum has been rock solid and is still very young. Weidman can wrestle yes but hes tried that in his past 3 fights and blows his load rather quickly. Gastelum has the standup to be able to pick him apart when hes gassed.
     
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