UFC Fox 25 - Weidman vs Gastelum - Long Island

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there's no way gastelum should be a favorite in that fight. odds will probably get closer after weidman completely dwarves him at the weigh in
 
Sham5916910 said:
Elkins beat his last 3 opponents cos they gassed. Skelly said he shouldnt have even fought. Berm is not going to gas i just cannot see a path to victory for elkins outside him summoning up the power of greyskull to crack that iffy chin of berms. I give berm every adv possible outside chin.
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berm is better everywhere, including athleticism which i think will be the most important facet of this fight. honestly -200 is a steal.
 
Man. I hope Berm doesn't burn everyone here. The guy finds ways to lose or at the least almost lose. I could see him eating a knee or something in a scramble. And While Elkins is not a KO guy he has showed lately that he's relentless when he sees a guy in trouble. And Berm finds ways to get in trouble.

This is real unpopular I'm sure but I think Kelvin deserves fave status more then Berm
 
SBJJ said:
Man. I hope Berm doesn't burn everyone here. The guy finds ways to lose or at the least almost lose. I could see him eating a knee or something in a scramble. And While Elkins is not a KO guy he has showed lately that he's relentless when he sees a guy in trouble. And Berm finds ways to get in trouble.
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yep, bermudez is a great fighter 90% of the time, i just feel this is a good match up for him not to pay for those momentary lapses.
 
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piglord said:
yep, bermudez is a great fighter 90% of the time, i just feel this is a good match up for him not to pay for those momentary lapses.
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I see it. But I really worry Elkins is the type to capitalize
 
Is Berm a Lock? Is he your Lock of the year?
 
I really don't get the love for Bermudez, he's lost 3 of his last 5, just got KO'd and easily beat by a guy that hadn't fought in 3 years. Elkins is in prime form, just a way better version of himself since joining Alpha Male. Hard to be confident betting against a guy like Elkins, I don't think he's an easy fight for anyone. If I was fading Elkins with a guy thats -250 I'd want them to be more reliable than Bermudez. I think all the value is on Elkins, win or lose you know he'll give 100%
 
Natal did his whole camp for Alessio Di Chirico - Orthodox.
Anders is southpaw coming in on no notice.
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
I really don't get the love for Bermudez, he's lost 3 of his last 5, just got KO'd and easily beat by a guy that hadn't fought in 3 years. Elkins is in prime form, just a way better version of himself since joining Alpha Male. Hard to be confident betting against a guy like Elkins, I don't think he's an easy fight for anyone. If I was fading Elkins with a guy thats -250 I'd want them to be more reliable than Bermudez. I think all the value is on Elkins, win or lose you know he'll give 100%
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Really enjoy your commentary and analysis, but don't believe you're on the right side of this one.

On paper, I see few advantages for Elkins.

Bermudez is faster, a more dynamic athlete and likely stronger. Bermudez is a more diverse striker with heavier hands. Bermudez is the better wrestler, possessing a clear advantage in takedown defense and an innate ability to successfully scramble when taken down. Bermudez does more damage from top position and has more ways to deliver a finish,

Furthermore, Bermudez has faced and beaten the higher level of opposition. As several other posters noted, Bermudez has also beaten fighters with similar styles to that of Elkins (Guida, Kawjiri).

Against the 3 elite wrestlers Elkins has faced, he has gone 1-2. Elkins lone win, his thrilling come-from-behind victory against Bektic, was a fight in which he was repeatedly taken down and nearly finished. Against Mendes he was finished on the feet immediately, but against Dias he was controlled. Opposing slightly lesser, but still talented wrestlers like Whiteford and Skelly, Elkins managed to win, but didn't look great (particularly against Skelly).

I concede Elkins has advantages in terms of chin, grit and submission grappling. I also recognize Bermudez has questionable judgement/fight IQ, limited defensive capabilities and a chin that has been regularly cracked. However, I do not believe those are enough advantages for Elkins to overcome the aforementioned deficits. In summation, due to a large discrepancy in athleticism and wrestling, I foresee Bermudez having a marquee performance, barring a major blunder or walk-off KO.

I bet Bermudez hard and plan to hedge a little w/ Elkins inside the distance (I do not see Elkins winning 2 of 3 rounds. I visualize his clearest path to victory being clipping Berm on the feet or slapping on a submission in a scramble.).
 
EzFlyer said:
I'd do it hehe. If 4u is a lot for you.
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I'm happy to say that its not a lot for me irl lol. You might remember me as the guy who put 10u on Anthony Hamilton a little while ago who proceeded to get KTFO by the undersized BJJ dude. 2.5u is my average bet.

However I do like free money like anyone else. In fact I miscalculated and can actually freeroll for 7u lol. But I have such a vivid picture of Cummins getting sparked by Villante in the first that I'm not sure of what to do.
 
Sunwater said:
I'm happy to say that its not a lot for me irl lol. You might remember me as the guy who put 10u on Anthony Hamilton a little while ago who proceeded to get KTFO by the undersized BJJ dude. 2.5u is my average bet.

However I do like free money like anyone else. In fact I miscalculated and can actually freeroll for 7u lol. But I have such a vivid picture of Cummins getting sparked by Villante in the first that I'm not sure of what to do.
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You don't have to arb all of it off, maybe leave enough staked to still win 10u?
 
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