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UFC Fox 25 - Weidman vs Gastelum - Long Island

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 8, 2017.

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  1. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    I'm no expert but Kelvin seems like he has an endomorph body type where even when he's in good shape he doesn't really look it. Definitely a diet thing too when it comes to Kelvin, no doubt about that. Juan Diaz in boxing and Cain seem to have that too. Good tanks just hold more fat b/c natural body types.
     
  2. CR0W BOXING

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    Exactly, Brandon Rios is another.
     
  3. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I'm gonna miss the majority of this card. Have a BBQ to attend which will be fun for sure, but timing is...unfortunate. May make it home in time for the last couple fights.

    Bets I like:

    Kelvin dec at +340. I know it's 5 rounds, but Kelvin isn't a huge finisher and tends to fight pretty strategically. Weidman could win the first round or 2 since he starts fast, but Kelvin has never been stopped so don't see that happening. Weidman's cardio is a question mark to a degree, can see Kelvin taking over 8-10 minutes into the fight and grinding out a decision. It's possible we see a stoppage by Kelvin similar to what he did to Kennedy, but at +340 I'm willing to gamble a bit that it goes the distance with Kelvin winning a (fairly) comfortable decision with his pace and technical boxing.

    Also like o2.5 at -155 a lot in the ME. I really don't see an early stoppage as likely at all.

    Dennis the Menace at -210. He's literally better everywhere, and barring another miracle by Elkins, I don't know how he wins. I think Dennis should be around -300.

    Rivera -210 and his dec line at +160. Originally I thought I'd be on Rivera itd given Almeida's reckless style. But odds weren't as good as I'd hoped, and Jimmy's footwork can keep him out of exchanges. I think Jimmy just outworks Almeida here for the win. I also like the o1.5 even with paying the juice at -220 (and probably -210 or better when reduced lines get released).

    Villante KO/TKO at +155. Cummings can take him down, yes. But Cummings really looks like his chin is shot, and it doesn't even take a flush punch to put him on wobbly legs anymore. Villante is gonna have his chances to land, and if he does it's most likely over.

    Anders/Natal goes distance. With Natal, there's always a pretty good chance of a decision. +145 is good enough for a small stab imo.

    May make a few other small plays. Without the ability to live bet, I'm more hesitant to pull the trigger on some bets. BOL everyone, hope it's a profitable night!
     
  4. Bless Orange Belt

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    the irony

    lol!
     
  5. Card Silver Belt

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  6. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    Thoughts on LaFlare/BC?
     
  7. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

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    In my opinion Oliviera should win this, La Flare is 34 and wasnt looking impressive in his last fight.
    He even did get mounted at the end of fight, Oliviera is on a run and should win this fight.
     
  8. vkram Brown Belt

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    Anyone else think that Elkins is fighting a bit too soon after the Bektic fight? He was getting beaten up pretty badly.

    Can be argued that Bermudez is coming back too quickly too though.
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2017
  9. JDB Brown Belt

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    Do you have any fucking clue what you are talking about? Unimpressive how exactly?

    It is Chris who looked weak up there, he had that depleted weight cut face.

    If Kelvin was ripped and his abs were showing it would actually be a redflag here.
     
  10. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    Not sure why you took offense to someone saying Gastelum looked unimpressive. He always looks unimpressive on the scale, just his body type I know, but still looks unimpressive.

    Chris looked damn good, and will look even better at actual weigh-ins after rehydrating a bit. I think Weidman money will come in from any casual who watches that and I beleive that is what Zees was implying. Guessing you have a big Gas bet, though, right?
     
  11. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    Chris looked good. But did anyone else think he looked dehydrated big time. And the way he was acting. Really looked out of it
     
  12. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    lil bit out of it
     
  13. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    I think these weight cuts and having Villante as your main training partner are what's gassing Weid
     
  14. BatBoyJG Brown Belt

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    Looks like I am backing 2 dogs strong tomorrow Weidman & Brazillian Cowboy.

    Also have a hunch on Almeida. Rivera likes to trade & gets rocked often. Almeida knows how to find fight ending strikes.
     
  15. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    Saw it when I used to wrestle. Guys just out of it. Off balance.
     
  16. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    I'm not touching Rivera. Could easily see him lose here
     
  17. quincy k Brown Belt

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    all the ny fighters looked loose.

    i never do parlays but im going to make an exception here

    weidman, bermudez, natal, villante
     
  18. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    Care to give your thoughts on BC/LaFlare?
     
  19. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    rivera dec +150 and up is just awesome, imo.

    i genuinely cap this outcome 50%, hell, maybe over 50%. i think they'll have some fun exchanges every round but the rounds will be edged via some timely takedowns by rivera.

    one of my favorite props, rarely do a full unit on a decision prop etc
     
  20. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    man, i know kelleher seems like he's on a good streak. and clearly he's capable of finishing quickly w/that guillotine, but i still think it was flukish vs alcantara. i think this line/his hype is kinda blowing up a bit.

    vera's never been finished. dude had a great KO himself last fight, on short notice -- i'm aware pickett's pretty much done, but another thing in play here: vera has never been finished; he has a solid guard...

    vera NSC +180 looks like the play for me.
     
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