1. The official Sherdog Store is back! Check it out! » Discuss it here! »

UFC Fox 25 - Weidman vs Gastelum - Long Island

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 8, 2017.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. JDB Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2010
    Messages:
    3,914
    Likes Received:
    11
    "Damn good" and "unimpressive" are very subjective... you need to be more specific. Keep in mind these 2 guys are NOT auditioning for a CK underwear commercial.

    Take a close look at Chris' drained, addled looking face, it doesn't look "damn good" to me.

    Kelvin might look like he just got off the couch to uneducated eyes but there was nothing at all wrong with the way he looked, nothing. Having a healthy level of BF means you will have more strength and endurance and if you look at Kelvin's waistline you will see that he is not overweight, his belly is trim.

    If I seemed offended by that comment it's because I believe the opposite is true - Kelvin looks to be in fine shape and Chris looks trim alright but he also looks like a guy who just underwent a cut. And people who have cut never look to be in optimal fighting shape, as they often looked pallid and underweight.

    But I'm sure Chris will look fine after he re-hydrates and hopefully for Chris backers the cut won't hurt his performance... too much.
     
  2. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    12,236
    Likes Received:
    0
    He got mounted with one min to go by a fuckin legit world level bjj guy. I think laflare slipped off going for a throw. He dominated the rest of the fight including dropping the guy twice.
     
  3. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2017
    Messages:
    2,928
    Likes Received:
    460
    Are you on cowboy or Laflare?
     
  4. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    12,236
    Likes Received:
    0
    I wanted laflare around -120. He can be taken down and he throws a lot of kicks which are caught and lead to him being taken down but hes alwaya scrambled up quickly except against maia. Laflare has legit td's tho and bc tdd is not good his got those long gangly legs. Laflare doesnt have good top control but bc is pretty poor off his back. Brooks cerrone merritt all managed to instant mount him. Bc is decent as getting up if his next to the cage but hes a turtle in the middle of the cage see hallman fight. I think despite laflares poor top control he can maintain top position if bc is away from the fence. Laflare doesnt really hit tds against the fence they are mainly doubles and quick singles so he can absolutely put bc down in the middle of the mat. But like i say laflare can be taken down too and bc has great cardio to wrestle for three. However bc seems to rely on opponents gassing before he gets his td game going. Took him 1.5 rounds to get moontsari down, had difficulty getting merritt down too and hallman. Only got brooks down i think once he was injured. He also makes errors going for td's and on the mat. Lost back control to merritt 3 times, tried pulling means down but pulled means into side control, tried taking hallmans back slid off and ended up on bottom. Laflare is an excellent grappler and for me out grapples bc.

    But it will be interesting to see bc gameplan will he grapple or stand. I think on the feet this could be very interesting. But i do feel laflare can wrestle bc and get the better of scrambles to win a back and forth fight. But line is too wide for me to bet laflare.
     
  5. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2010
    Messages:
    18,611
    Likes Received:
    1,438
    Location:
    Upstate
    Brazilian Cowboy known as a striker obviously but underrated grinder as well. Not the greatest bjj guy or wrassler out there but he's very well rounded. Had to take him as a dog against Laflare. I think this fight is basically a pk or close to it, dog or pass for me, Cowboy at that +160ish area seemed like it was worth a unit, imo.

    Also on Cummins, but much less confident. Both these guys are so flawed, another dog or pass for me. Then again I love dogs, both irl and betting, so .6u on Pat b/c dogs. Already on Elkins as well but not any big plays yet.
     
  6. vkram Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2014
    Messages:
    4,527
    Likes Received:
    12
    I'm pretty confident in Villante here. He has decent TDD and trains with Weidman who can prepare him for a wrestler. Cummins is so damn hittable, Blachowicz nearly had him out of there in the first round and he isn't really a finisher. Villante does tend to gas but then so does Cummins IMO.
     
  7. piglord Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,904
    Likes Received:
    319
    Location:
    Sewers
    bochniak/kennedy o2.5?
     
  8. Tony J Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2005
    Messages:
    708
    Likes Received:
    0
    Probably yeah, but a little pricey. Kennedy is not a hard hitter, and will try to TD and grind. Bochniak is getting a bit underrated, and bounced up as soon as Barzola scored a takedown and was in his face the whole time (re-watched that fight, and not a robbery imo). Kyle is the better striker but not a power hitter, and Kennedy ate two flying knees like sandwiches against Rony Jason, so his chin should hold up. It's a close fight.
     
  9. Sadistics Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2015
    Messages:
    2,537
    Likes Received:
    1,630
    It's become my favourite play, have 4u on it atm
     
  10. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    Messages:
    6,511
    Likes Received:
    82
    Hitting Berm spread +155
     
  11. Stunna77 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2015
    Messages:
    2,552
    Likes Received:
    3
    Missed +155, but still happy with +140. Berm either dominates or gets stopped by something flukey IMO, but I don't see lightning striking twice for The Damage.
     
  12. Stunna77 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2015
    Messages:
    2,552
    Likes Received:
    3
    I get what you are saying, but everyone besides fatties like Gas and Hendricks cut weight in MMA. It just speaks to their discipline with their diets. I don't think Gas looked bad, he will just never look great at 185, because his frame is better suited for 170, he just likes tacos.
     
  13. JDB Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2010
    Messages:
    3,914
    Likes Received:
    11
    I guess it is but I'm not sure he looks better at 170. Maybe he's one of those guys that needs a division between 170 and 185.
     
  14. Stunna77 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2015
    Messages:
    2,552
    Likes Received:
    3
    That or a nutritionist :)
     
  15. Stunna77 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2015
    Messages:
    2,552
    Likes Received:
    3
    I feel like everyone has the same line of thinking on Weidman/Gas. It is Weidman early and Gas late, so I am just advocating not to prebet Gas as I think Weidman wins the first round 75-80% of the time, at which point you should be able to get a much better price. I personally prebet weidman to cover an early finish from him or the off chance that he doesn't slow down wrestling a much smaller opponent.
     
  16. raketmannen Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2016
    Messages:
    3,515
    Likes Received:
    0
    My favorite bet of this card is Gastelum/Weidman inside the distance -188. Being a 5 rounder I see this ending with a finish 4 out of 5 times, most likely a Kelvin ko/tko late in the second or in the third. Got 9 units on does not go the distance and 2.5u Gastelum ko/tko +210. Got a pretty big parlay ending with Kelvin aswell so I prebet some on Weidman +145 and plan to livebet Kelving if we get good odds during the first round
     
  17. Ukram Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2013
    Messages:
    13,695
    Likes Received:
    10
    10 minutes till weigh ins
     
  18. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2016
    Messages:
    1,163
    Likes Received:
    0
    Anyone know of any UK/Euro bookies that offer these point spread bets? I'd much rather bet Bermudez like that instead of lumping on his ML at -200-odd.
     
  19. Sadistics Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2015
    Messages:
    2,537
    Likes Received:
    1,630
    5Dimes is the only one to offer it.

    Berm -3.5 now +165, on it for a unit
     
  20. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    philly
    fight pass:

    wade-perez
    wade looks fantastic, as expected
    perez looks pretty damned sharp, too
    perez 1-2" taller

    pepey-burgos
    pepey looks good.. not quite brazil-locale standards but he looks lean and mean.
    burgos giant 145, looks awesome.
    they are about the same size (i keep telling people pepey is taller than they think, lol. ufc still lists him 5'7, it's just wrong)

    johnson-albini
    albini comes in at 264.. big and soft.. tho he actually doesn't look like he should be 264. looks like a blown-up, out-of-shape lightweight
    johnson a big boy, as always, and he looks fine for him. just big and fat, hehe. in at 264
    albini is actually like 3" taller, even tho they're both listed at 6'3 .. 264 now makes more sense...

    vera-kelleher
    vera looks pretty darn good.. way better than the short notice fight last time out.
    kelleher a strong 135, but definitely lacking in size
    vera is 3+" taller

    kennedy-bochniak
    kennedy lean 145, looks good. same as last fight.
    bochniak looks strong
    kennedy towering over him, 4-5" taller.. but bochniak definitely thicker

    fox prelims:

    grabowski-sherman
    sherman in at 251, looks pretty solid for him. not jacked or anything, but not too soft, either. just a big boy.
    grabowski lookin pretty soft, 261 is too heavy for him, man..
    sherman is 3+" taller

    oliveira-laflare
    cowboy looks very gppd. same as usual for him at WW
    laflare freakin shredded 170 as always.
    they're very similarly sized

    natal-anders
    anders looks very strong despite the short notice.. definitely a bruiser
    natal looks meh, as always, hehe. normal for him.
    they're similarly sized. anders just a lil bigger.

    good-zaleski
    zaleski looks really good, as per usual.
    good back after the suspension.. and he is still ludicrously jacked, jesus. we sure he's clean now?
    zaleski might be 1" taller. they're similarl sized.

    fox main:

    rivera-almeida
    almeida looks good. skinny 135 etc, standard
    rivera a tank at 135, looks great.
    almeida is 3-4" taller; rivera considerably thicker

    villante-cummins
    villante looks decent. he's looked better, he's looked worse. lil soft etc but normal.
    cummins looks alright. strong etc.. normal.
    villante 1" taller maybe

    bermudez-elkins
    elkins lean and unimposing, as always.. just the dude's body-type. looks good for him
    bermudez freakin jacked as usual
    elkins is 4-5" taller, bermudez much thicker (third time tonight i've said that lol)

    weidman-gastelum
    gastelum umimpressive and soft. yea, as expected.
    weidman looks very sharp. not quite as ripped as the moose fight but looks very good
    weidman is 4" taller
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.