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UFC Fox 25 - Weidman vs Gastelum - Long Island

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 8, 2017.

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  1. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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  2. JDB Brown Belt

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    The have one gameplan for The Chris which is to "believe in that cardio" and continually spam takedowns "all day long Chris!"

    I was wondering if anyone would catch that!
    <{Heymansnicker}>
     
  3. JDB Brown Belt

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    It's a damn shame. 2012 Arianny was the GOAT.
    [​IMG]
     
  4. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Carly baker is the best ufc ring girl
     
  5. ApplesVild Banned Banned

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    Kelvin has a big square head, Chris his going to hurt his hands punching his face in.
     
  6. trucido Blue Belt

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    Had a dream last night that Weidman knocks him out in the first. 0.5u on Weidman rd1 lol.
     
  7. Dooze Purple Belt

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    Trying to think, is Jeremy Kennedy the kid who looked fantastic in his UFC debut last year? I remember some Canadian/potentially American kid debuting in his home state and looking phenomenal in the first two rounds then coasting the 3rd but still looking good/likely winning the round? Had an interview with Rogan or Stann after the fight about being from some small local town/village or something.

    He looks different to what I remembered (think that guy had a beard), but going through event lists I can't work out who else it would be. He was somewhere between 135-155 and I think had a beard from what I remember. Knew I should have wrote that motherfucker's name down so I could kow who it was for betting in the future. Anyone got that Rainman memory and able to help a brother out?

    Anyway, I'm probably on Bermudez here. Elkins generally wins by being the better wrestler and grinding on opponents. Bermudez should be the better wrestler, stronger and his stand-up should be better. Elkins I'd say gets the nod in being more durable and a better gas tank, but outside of that it should be all Dennis. Bermudez does seem to have a weird habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory every now and then but I can't see Elkins getting some crazy flash KO two fights on the trot. Could maybe latch onto a choke but again I don't see it.

    Likely be on LaFlare too, expecting him to land a few leg/body kicks and grapplefuck Brazilian Cowboy enough to win a decision.
     
  8. BobsyaUncle Brown Belt

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    You're thinking of Gavin Tucker.
     
  9. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Just listened to Sherdogs round table and NO ONE TALKED ABOUT WEIDMAN GASSING?! How can you pick Weidman via dec and not even mention that Chris will look like a Walking Dead zombie in the third round? I mean, I will eat tons of crow if Weidman wins a forth or a fifth round, but all previous fights points to him being dead tired after 7-10 minutes.
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2017
  10. Dooze Purple Belt

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    That's the one, knew it was some Canadian dude who debuted within the last year. Much appreciated mate, that would have driven me mad.
     
  11. Yotsuya Brown Belt

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    I had a dream that Arlovski would knock out Ngannou in the first and I doubled my bet. I've not trusted that shit since, but maybe your subconsious is better at capping fights than mine.
     
  12. timmyclax22 Green Belt

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    Good luck today boys.

    Trusting myself today and think Weidman inside 2. Too big, too strong, could see a sub or a knockout. Watched a few of Kelvins fights and he's very hittable and has gotten taken down in a lot of them too. Chris is a different animal and a huge step up.

    Going to start drinking over here pretty soon, enjoy.
     
  13. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    If the early part of the fight looks like the early part of Weidman/Moose, there is literally zero chance Weidman doesn't gas. None. Taking guys down and only being able to hold them down for a short time and then rinse-repeat that for even a round is absolutely grueling. There's a select few guys with the cardio to be able to do that for 15 minutes, let alone 25. Chris isn't one of those guys.

    But as was mentioned, there's a chance he doesn't come out that way and tries to use his reach to box with Kelvin. I think Kelvin has better hands and timing, so I don't tend to think Chris will be ultra effective with that strategy, but at least it could leave some gas in his tank for later in the fight.

    If I was forming a gameplan for Chris (and keep in mind I'm on Kelvin here) I'd come out a bit more conservative than he normally does. Mix in leg kicks, trust that Kelvin isn't gonna try for TD's and that if he does Chris is the bigger guy and the better wrestler. Push Kelvin against the fence some, mix things up but don't expend huge amounts of energy. Don't try to win the early rounds convincingly, just try to make them close and competitive. Then when the fight moves into rds 3,4,5 get a bit more aggressive, hoping the cardio is in better shape due to not pushing things as much early on. Might need to make in fight adjustments of course, if Kelvin is piecing him up standing or whatever. But this is how I'd go into it. Going balls out for 2 rds with questionable cardio against a guy who's never been finished is just a horrible gameplan unless you literally have no other options. And Chris does. With the right gameplan and favorable judging, Chris CAN win this fight, even by decision. I don't think he WILL, but he CAN.
     
  14. Zee's MMA Subscriber Green Belt

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    So many lines that are wider than they should be, favourites getting too much respect

    Shane Burgos -500
    Sherman -240
    Villante -155
    Kennedy -260
    Rivera -200
    Bermeduz -225
    Good -160

    LOL at all of these.
     
  15. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    Villante fastest KO +600, Rivera/Almeida FOTN +600, Weidman/Gas FOTN +350, on all 3
     
  16. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    LIke that Villante KO prop, hit that. Like Rivera/Almeida too as FOTN, but dropped to +500. Meh, pass.
     
  17. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    Fake tits, would not.
     
  18. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    How you been Robbie?
     
  19. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yeah I got it at +150, wanted to add another half unit, but now +125. So I did .25u more, and did half a unit on Rivera -3.5 at +130 and .1u on Rivera rd 3 at +1300.

    I agree with you for the most part on how the fight plays out. Almeida seemed to tone down his craziness early after Cody put him in his place. So I can see that for a round, maybe rd 2 as well. But if he's getting the worst of it, I could see him reverting back to his reckless craziness in rd 3 and Jimmy blasting him at that point.
     
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Agree on Good and Sherman. Zaleski will be right in the fight imo. And while Grabowski isn't good, neither is Sherman really and laying big juice on him at HW makes zero sense. I'm on Zeleski and Grabowski small. Villante isn't gonna win a decision or by sub, so if you're gonna bet him might as well bet his KO line. I got +150, but now it's +105 so no value. At current odds, that fight is a pass imo.

    Rivera is just better than Almeida. As was discussed, his props probably better than his ML. Dennis should clown Elkins. He's better everywhere.
     
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