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UFC Fox 25 - Weidman vs Gastelum - Long Island

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 8, 2017.

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  1. piglord Black Belt

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    man i feel terrible betting on villante but i think he's got a good match up here. good takedown defence, good chin and power in his shots.

    watching cummins wobble like mr jellyman after eating shots is really alarming, reminds me of reem. his chin is so fucking shot i think he gets stopped.
     
  2. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    I agree
     
  3. Kowboy Karl Black Belt

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    Would fade Cummins

    Better fights to bet though
     
  4. Tebowned Boise Dime.

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    Gian Ko and Cummins decision might be the same as their ML haha.
     
  5. jrleclerc88 Brown Belt

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    Pretty much my thinking also. Kennedy was controlling Kelvin on the ground mainly with his strength and size advantage. Weidman is a good amount bigger then kelvin
     
  6. jrleclerc88 Brown Belt

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    Why? I think this is the easiest fight out of his last 3 or 4
     
  7. MisGuidedAngel The King of Nowhere

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  8. MisGuidedAngel The King of Nowhere

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  9. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    yeah his price might shorten before the fight as well which would in turn shorten it even more in play if he did secure a takedown early.

    Kennedy had a lot of ring rust in that fight and I think weidman will do a lot better from that position with his size advantage, not to mention his top game. I'm not even worried about his cardio all that much, he gassed in the moose fight mainly because of moose's get ups from the bottom, and then re attempting the takedowns. it's likely he will be in better shape this time anyway. I'm not sure kelvin is big enough to do the same, and if he does that will also tax his cardio more than it did moose's.

    And despite weidman losing 3 in a row, this will still be the biggest fight gastelum has ever been in, and wins over belfort and the ghost of johny hendricks don't look as good in hindsight, not too mention when he struggled against magny on the ground..
     
  10. Ballsaque Brown Belt

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    Why?
     
  11. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    You're assuming a lot of stuff that probably is not true.

    Moose has been laid on before. Kelvin has been laid on in 2 fights. To assume Kelvin is easier to lay on is very debatable.

    Kennedy has showed great top control while Weidman actually hasn't.

    And to not be worried about cardio with Weidman is like saying you're not worried about Overeems chin
     
  12. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Was Kelvin even laid on in those 2 fights? Magny it was more back and forth with the grappling exchanges than Magny "laying on" Kelvin. I do think Magny won and got the better of the grappling slightly, but Kelvin absolutely had his moments.

    Is the other one the Story fight that you are referencing? I'm honestly trying to remember who else controlled Kelvin from top position at all.

    As for Weidman doing it, I'm not sold either. He's had multiple injuries he's dealt with, and like you said his top control isn't the impressive part of Weidman's grappling game really. The impressive part is that while he DOES have top position, he's able to generally do a lot more damage than most guys. But that aggression also allows his opponents the opening to get back to their feet.
     
  13. burge13 Purple Belt

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    What are you hoping to see in these sheets? It's good to see some stats for each fighter in one place for convenience but have you found these change your judgement of a fight or add any real insight to what you didn't know already about the fighters?

    Hope that didn't sound negative. Genuine question
     
  14. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    The other fight I was referencing was Kennedy Rd 1
     
  15. MisGuidedAngel The King of Nowhere

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    Legit question. I have found with o/u's if I see a trend with the averages and counts, it is helpful. The match up of course can make me like or dislike a play more. With the match up pretty much just a way to see where the advantages lie. I admit I'm not a great bettor or anything. Not sure how much it helps. I am hoping that someone here may have some insight and help me out a bit. Any opinions of your own? If no one finds them useful I won't clog up the board with them. I do find it can help strengthen or temper my leans.
     
  16. burge13 Purple Belt

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    I was just curious the thought behind them. It's convenient to see the stats in one place rather than wiki/fight finder etc but I wouldn't personally hold much weight in what i see from them. The match-up/eye test are the best indicators for MMA. Stats work for sports, not fights IMO. If it helps push people away from a bad lean however, it's never bad. Whatever works for you.
     
  17. MisGuidedAngel The King of Nowhere

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    Thanks for you input. Agree to a large extent. I use it just as an aid because you are right. Stats don't mean as much. But sometimes it just helps me see certain things. Eg for this fight I didn't realize how much stronger Weidmans competition was even though it would be apparent to many. Also didn't think about Weidmans reach advantage being so large. An example of it helping me, bb vs hunt I leaned over, ran the stats and was like woah definitely a good bet. Others probably saw it withou this type of aid.
     
  18. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    Musoke also laid on Kelvin for most of the 1st round
     
  19. burge13 Purple Belt

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    Good work if it's helping then. All that matters...No idea of your excel skills but I'm sure you could scrape the stats to do a lookup against your template. If you're going to use this type of aid at least try to make it as automated as possible. Be annoying manually entering it every card
     
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Ahh yeah okay. Yeah for a round Tim was just outmuscling the smaller Kelvin, for sure. Maybe Weidman has some similar success if he tries, but like you said cardio comes into play and it's a 5 round fight which means Kelvin giving a round away means even less.
     
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