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UFC Fox 25 - Weidman vs Gastelum - Long Island

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 8, 2017.

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  1. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    I don't think it's that debatable to say gastelum is likely easier to lay on than moose, the size differential is a big factor here, if magny can get the better of gastelum on the floor i see no reason why the more skilled much stronger weidman can't. and we know how legit moose's grappling is. he's a decent sized mw also and has fought at lhw many times. weidman nearly subbed moose early on also.

    weidman's cardio doesn't really worry me because I'm planning on greening a trade if weidman can control the grappling early, the rest of the fight is irrelevant to my bet atm, unless he shits the bed and gasses in 3 minutes that is...
     
  2. Jamah Green Belt

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    Weidman's top control sucks big time, he can take anybody down but he can't hold them.
    Based on his previous fights:
    Is he going to be able to take Gastelum down? Yeah
    Is he going to be able to hold him down? Not sure
    Is he going to slow down hard after a few rounds? Most likely, yeah
     
  3. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    TD will be sufficient for my betting purposes here, I'll take those odds with his strength and size advantage.
     
  4. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    not too mention his line shortening already
     
  5. t6p Brown Belt

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    This pretty much sums it up for me. The only thing I'd add:
    If/when Gastelum ends up in the bad positions that he did against Magny, can Weidman take advantage and grab a sub or land some big gnp? Possibly

    But like @Roads55 is saying, and others have said as well, it's unlikely Chris gets finished early and it's pretty likely he wins the first round or 2, so betting Chris pre-fight and looking to live bet Gastelum is the way to go here IMO.
     
  6. Jamah Green Belt

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    I would bet on Bryan Barberena against Weidman, styles make fights.
     
  7. Tebowned Boise Dime.

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    C'mon now.
    Weidman's cardio is not the best but he gave Mous, Yoel, and rockhold trouble. Barberena would get ragdolled. Gastelum is a WW who is too lazy/ill-prepared to make it.
    Barberena is a LW who is too lazy to make it. Hypothetically I cap Chris weidman as -2000 vs barberna. His biggest moment is choking Sage. Chris ko'd anderson silva.

    I think this will be similar to yoel vs robert. Chris wins early and Kelvin takes over late.
    I see The Chris doing good early using his length to front kick to get Kelvin upright and setup takedowns(IE vs Mark Munoz). I don't see him using the same gameplan as he used versus romero as that gameplan was to make Yoel work because he had suspect cardio. He'll use a more technical approach against kelvin as Kelvin likely has the cardio advantage.
     
  8. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I hope this is sarcasm that flew over my head lol
     
  9. Jamah Green Belt

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    LOL, Ofc I was joking, but Barberena is legit tho.

    damn muricans defending "the all american"
     
  10. Tebowned Boise Dime.

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    I'm brown 'muricans hate me
     
  11. Jamah Green Belt

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    hahahaha, poor johnny...
     
  12. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    That was how I planned to play it as well. Waiting for Gas to get bet up, then I will prebet Weidman as a dog and LB Gas if Chris doesn't finish early.
     
  13. t6p Brown Belt

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    I mentioned this earlier in the thread, but Weidman NSC is +155. That way you'll get your initial stake back if Gastelum ends up winning by dec.
     
  14. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    That may be a thought. Would suck to get middled should Weidman somehow win a decision after Lbing Gas and not having his ML prebet to fall back on to even out loses.
     
  15. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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  16. MacPherson911 Blue Belt

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    Alessio Di Chirico injured, out of bout agaist Natal. LFA champ Eryk (are you kidding me?) Anders to step in for a short notice UFC debut. Fade city?
     
  17. DarkneT Khamzat sucks

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    Size advantage against a known lay and prayer in Tim Kennedy looked ridiculous and Kelvin got away with it
     
  18. vkram Brown Belt

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  19. Tebowned Boise Dime.

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    Anyone think Elizeu Zalesk opens up as a fav?
     
  20. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Any info on Good would be appreciated. I really like Zaleski but Good looks solid from Sherdog capping.
     
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