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UFC Fox 25 - Weidman vs Gastelum - Long Island

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 8, 2017.

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  1. Tebowned Boise Dime.

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    I like Good. I'm hoping the public is on Elizeu. I'm probably gonna give up too much info here lol jk.

    Former bellator champ with good victories.
    Good has struggled with strong grapplers: Askren, Ian Stephens(on TUF at 185), and Rick Hawn(I thought he beat Hawn).
    Dos santos ground game is okay but his wrestling is pretty poor to me. He arguably lost to Nakamura by takedowns, outwrestled by Dalby, and Omari took him down before gassing. Lyman is likely not going to wrestle him though.
    Lyman's boxing should get it done, he's faster and crisper, and has actual technique. He trains with the same boxing coach as jimmie river and Shane burgos and their boxing has been awesome in their UFC fights.
    Zaleski wings shots like a mad man and catches bad defensive fighters like Omari and Nakumara. Lyman should read that, slip them, and land hard counters.
    I'd have to favor Lyman's cardio and distance management as well.

    Good just failed a drug test* and has been out almost 2 years. It worries me. On twitter, he's still ripped to shit so it eases my mind a bit. I'm not going huge or anything but I really like this matchup for good.


    *Tainted supplement
     
  2. timmyclax22 Green Belt

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    If knee gate didn't happen and I didn't lose like 3-4u I would hit this much harder. Still have a bad taste in my mouth from that shit show.

    Weidman +110.
     
  3. JDB Brown Belt

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    Since this was announced I've been thinking of going all-in on Gastelum, haha.

    Chris doesn't seem to have much these days, he has single leg TDs and a shitty gas tank, that's about it. The power is gone and Gast has an iron chin anyways, better gas tank, better hands, can wrestle, better subs too.
     
  4. Itsnotthatseriousmydude White Belt

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    Been watching weidman footage all day... really feel like these cardio issues are being blown out of proportion. He's not exactly fresh come the third round of fights but I think it might be a case of people reacting to what he looks like instead of what hes doing. He was taking round three off of rockhold before he threw that stupid wheelkick. He got lapped by Romero in an act of God occurrence and the moose fight was so wacky it's hard to glean real conclusions. His chin is holding up... the rockhold tko was a positional situation and the Romero tko didn't even separate him from consciousness. The moose knees didn't seem to wobble him either. I just don't think that weidman is as shot as people are making him out to be.
     
  5. JDB Brown Belt

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    Who said he is shot? He is simply a different fighter than he was in 2012 when he took the belt.

    Chris has always had gas issues and his opponent is half Mexican, and mountain people have among the best gas tanks in the world. Racist I know.

    Chris has a size and reach advantage, but if tries that slow pawing stand up he will get counter with quick combos and if he spams single legs he will get punched in the head from a one legged Gast as he struggles for the TD. Not a good match-up for Chris.
     
  6. Itsnotthatseriousmydude White Belt

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    Mountain people have good cardio because of altitude, not because of ancenstry.

    Why would gast be throwing punches from one leg? The only person who's stopped Chris's single is Yoel Romero. Gastelum was getting going down to body lock takedowns from magny. Gast is a lot like weidman in the standup in so far as he's not s great counter striker and relies on stalking and pressure to land strikes.
    Seems like recency bias to me.
     
  7. JDB Brown Belt

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    Lol I called him Mexican in the same sentence... never mind.

    "Recency bias" that's funny. Weidman beat a bunch of old Brazilians in their late 30s during the USADA era and now he's on a 3 fight losing streak, go figure. It's not recency bias to say he's sucking these days.
     
  8. Itsnotthatseriousmydude White Belt

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    Yeah but what does being Mexican have to do with cardio ?
     
  9. Itsnotthatseriousmydude White Belt

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    Also can't you say the exact same thing about gastelums impressive wins? Besides the Brazilian angle anyway. Vitor after Weidman got him, half retired Tim Kennedy, Hendricks who hasn't had his head in the game in forever, Nate marquardts corpse, etc. I like the Gast support to get me better prices on weidman but I can't see any hard evidence behind it.
     
  10. SBJJ Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    The Evidence is Chris basically has slowed down in almost every fight that's gone into the third. Especially lately after Injuries and stricter drug testing while Gast has obviously improved is tough as hell and had a great gas tank.

    What do u honestly think you'll see if this fight goes into the 4th round

    This same argument was hashed before Gegard fight. People said Chris slowing down wad exaggerated and he would wrestlfuck moose for 3 rounds
     
  11. JDB Brown Belt

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    "Hard evidence?"

    Weidman hasn't won a fight in over 2 years whereas Gast is tearing it up and hasn't lost in almost as long.

    Gast beat the shit out of Kennedy and retired him, he beat the shit out of Vitor (granted he's old and fucked,) etc. Chris on the other hand hasn't done anything recently expect lose in embarrassing and dumb ways.

    So what is your argument for why Chris should win? How do you see this fight going?
     
  12. Itsnotthatseriousmydude White Belt

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    The rockhold fight was deflating but it's hardly embarrassing to get sniped by Yoel Romero. Dudes capacity for sudden violence is unparalleled. And the commission beat weidman more so than mousasi.
    Weidman can win a few different ways. He can take kelvin down and sub him. Realistically I see him doing a ton of damage from referee position, where kelvin liked to scramble to and where Chris likes to hold guys.
    He can beat him on the feet too. Gastelum is half the striker in the counter that he is when he advances. If Chris can use size and reach to get kelvin moving back he's an awesome ring cutter and pressure fighter and can take a decision. I see a lot fewer paths to victory for gastelum.
     
  13. quincy k Brown Belt

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    so you are not taking into consideration the fact that weidman was again fuked up by yet another head shot against mouse and possilby, if not probably, suffering three concussion in three consecutive fights?
     
  14. JDB Brown Belt

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    Gast is the one that has many paths to victory.

    "He can take kelvin down and sub him."

    Gast has only ever lost via decision and Chris hasn't submitted anyone since UFC 139. And Kevin won't be as easy to corral as Anderson was, he's not gonna be scared of Chris' wrestling.

    Chris can take this via points but he has to get through 5 rounds and recently we have seen many guys become utterly exhausted during fights, BJ, Yoel, etc. Gassing is a serious reality in this era, MMA is a kind of endurance sport after all.
     
  15. Itsnotthatseriousmydude White Belt

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    Sure it's possible but he didn't knock him out.
    it didn't look to me like the Romero knockout affected him in the mousasi fight and the mousasi knees didn't knock Chris or tko him. If the commission didn't botch it it wouldn't even be talked about.
     
  16. t6p Brown Belt

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    UFC on FOX 25: Weidman vs. Gastelum | 2017.07.22 | Long Island, New York

    Darren Elkins +150
    Dennis Bermudez -190

    Over 2.5 -260
    Under 2.5 +180
    -

    Patrick Cummins +110
    Gian Villante -150

    Over 1.5 -175
    Under 1.5 +135
    -----
     
  17. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    gotta bet cummins
     
  18. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    nailed cummins +110 and -110
     
  19. Captain Crunch28 Green Belt

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    It's in Ny tho, big gian is gonna turn uh
     
  20. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    turn uh? huh?

    and is new york gonna help gian from being totally gassed after 5-6 mins?
     
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