UFC on ESPN 14: Whittaker vs. Till - Official Bets

Sadistics said:
Werdum +292 $400

Esparza +257 $650

Craig +105 $1050
Craig/Antigulov U1.5 +118 $500

Sobotta +168 $415
Sobotta SUB +850 $185

Chimaev/McKee O1.5 +185 $400

Trinaldo -139 $800
Trinaldo SUB +600 $80

Ronson +319 $400
Ronson/Dalby O2.5 -180 $600

Aspinall -170 $850

Boser -189 $1600
Boser DEC +121 $300
Boser/Pessoa O2.5 -128 $800

Correia +158 $800

Castaneda +340 $250
Castaneda/Wood O1.5 -182 $600

Idk if it was a glitch but DSI had Esparza +257 yesterday, I'm pretty sure they honour it. Botched the Castaneda line, but I expect major CLV on most other lines. Want to be on Whittaker at -110 or better, let's see where the line goes.
Click to expand...

+$7199. Didn't get to bet Whittaker in the end but happy for him. Nearly made it a 5 figure weekend but +9117 is fine by me!
 
Crimp_Keeper said:
$50 Whittaker @ -115 WIN $43.50
$10 on Werdum sub @ +700 WIN + $70
$10 on Grundy @ +160 LOSE
$7.25 on Grundy Dec @ +275 LOSE
$10 on Aspinall wins in round 1 @ +250 WIN +$25
$20 Trinaldo @ -110 WIN + $18.18
$5 Herbert by KO/TKO @ + 400 LOSE
$10 Boser + Trinaldo to win $15.19 WIN $15.19
$2.5 on Boser + Kinazad + Evloev to win $5 WIN $5
Click to expand...

+$161.68
 
Papi said:
Trinaldo -170 5.1u to win 3u

Till -105 2.10u to win 2u

Aspinall/emeev double 1.3u to win 1u

Ronson +220 1u to win 2.2u

Lil nog itd +200 .5u to win 1u

Grundy ko +1200 .1u to win 1.2u

Gus -265 to close out a triple to win 1u

Got fooked on line movement I would say that's by far my biggest flaw in betting is predicting that shit. If Esparza line keeps improving I might throw a little on her dec line.
Click to expand...
+2.75uish between this and live betting not bad. Would have been big night if till got the decision. Feel like my reads have been good lately just need to get better at determining line movement
 
2020Tracked said:
Post 'em

Bethe at 2.25 - 0.5 unit
Sobatta at 2.40 - 0.5 unit
Ronson at 3.50 - 0.5 unit
Boser by decision at 2.25 - 0.5 unit
Gus/Wedum over 2.5 round at 2.00 - 0.5 unit
Aspinal ITD at 2.10 for 0.5 unit



Some dog lines are getting crazy so I may have some more small plays

I like Wood ITD, Shogun/Nog either fighter by KO, Jai Herbert, Paul Craig, Rodriguez and Whittaker, could end up playing them all in some way
Click to expand...

Absolute shambles
 
BigSteve said:
Wood/Castaneda start RD2 + Emeev 667 to win 400
Wood + Evloev RD3/DEC 400 to win 596
Wood + Dalby 822 to win 598
Wood SUB RD2 50 to win 425

Emeev RD3/DEC 404 to win 250

Kianzad RD3/DEC 220 to win 200
Kianzad/Beathe Start RD2 + Dalby/Ronson Start RD3 929 to win 600

Pessoa 100 to win 202

Grundy KO/DEC 296 to win 671

Trinaldo 400 to win 244

Chimaev RD1 224 to win 280
Chimaev RD1/2 800 to win 424
Chimaev + Nog/Rua Start RD2 400 to win 235

Olivera KO/DEC 600 to win 600
Sabota SUB/DEC 300 to win 600

Antigulov SUB RD1 100 to win 700

Rodriguez 1200 to win 736
Carla DEC 236 to win 424

Nog RD1 KO 50 to win 500
Nog/Rua to start RD3 200 to win 224

Long shot: Emeev RD3/DEC + Nog/Rua DEC + Gus/Werdum Start RD3 + Dalby/Ronson start RD3 75 to win 1000
Click to expand...

Added pre bet:

Wood by finish 241 ( impulsive and big regret )
Stolze RD1 9
Ronson RD3/DEC 98
Beathe DEC 50
Aspinal RD1 KO 100 to win 230
Trinaldo 278 to win 200
Herbert RD1 144
Olivera 400 to win 288
Sabota SUB 100
Rodriguez 613 to win 300 ( greedy )
Werdum 350 to win 822 ( big chase )
Rua/Nog KO RD1 271
Rua/Nog Start RD2 800 to win 336
Rua/Nog Start RD3 200 to win 230
Rua/Nog DEC 100 to win 220
Till 142

Live bet:

Evloev after RD1 1300 to win 377
Grundy Hedge after RD2 100
Herbert after RD 1 500
Carla 500 to win 275

+665 = 1.6u

Shit rollercoaster again. Up 1,200 before I lost almost 2k on one Dalby/Ronson fight and in 900 hole, that was a new low.
Then worked my self out, added more to Rodriguez out of greed and ended up in another 900+ hole haha. Chased with Werdum and Co-main and scraped with some winnings.

Couple average cards, bit of it is the new unit size, but realistically too many bets. Back to basics next week.
 
BaruchSpinoza said:
0.1 u Sobotta SUB at +900

1.5 u Chimaev vs. McKee starts R2 at +110 (I just can't accept a first round finish being a > 50% event)
0.125 u Chimaev SUB R2 at +850

1 u Wood vs. Castañada o.1.5 at -175
0.5 u Wood vs. Castañada Starts R2 at -250
0.375 u Wood Decision at +225
Click to expand...

-0.1u
Small loss overall. Happily, I had second thoughts and bailed on a bet on Gus and Werdum GTD.
Maybe McKee surviving to round two was a bit considering who he is and the fight being short notice... Oh well, will likely be playing the same bet for Chimaev's next fight!

Good to see a lot of you guys did well!
 
Risked 2k for the day and won 2k for the day on the slips I posted on page 2 of Wood, Emeev, and Pannie. Wish I'd gotten Pannie before the fight started.

Going to try something different for the next 5 cards. Normally I do a parlay of either 2k or 3k. I'll probably still do that on a 2-3 legger like always, but I'm going to start dropping 250-500 on a way bigger parlay. In the last 5 cards I think it's been, I've picked literally every fight I've looked at right. Last week it was every fight correct. A few weeks ago it was entire card again. Today it was every fight except for 2 that I had no clue on and would have just passed on anyway. In the last 5 cards I've done this 2 or 3 times with no losses, but then I also haven't gone for them because I was too scared to risk the 2k. But with only a $250-500 I won't give a fuck and will be more willing to pull the trigger. if I'd done that today, 500 would have turned into 32k off 8 picks, not including the co-main and main, which I guessed right anyway and would have made it 87k.

And if it don't work, it's only 2.5k gone, which doesn't really hurt my bankroll at the moment.
 
Sadistics said:
+$7199. Didn't get to bet Whittaker in the end but happy for him. Nearly made it a 5 figure weekend but +9117 is fine by me!
Click to expand...

Awesome day, bro. Good work. What was your total risk for all that?
 
Lost 9u in total on:
Bethe, Marina, Boser dec, Craig/Antigulov o1.5, and Sobotta

Won 13.2u on:
Rua/Nog o1.5, Rua/Nog Fgtd, Rua dec, Boser Ml, Trinaldo Ml, and Whittaker ML

+4.2 u, Rua and Bobby made my night, and of course the Trinaldo KO out of nowhere felt good too.

Rodriguez shat the bed, like all female fighters do when I have money on them...

2 valuable lessons as far as I'm concerned
1) Never bet against Esparza unless she's facing Rose, Zhang or JJ. Besides, it's a shame there isn't a "by lay and pray" prop
2) Stop betting on Wmma. Checked the statistics and what came out is I have approximately a -20% Roi on them (while I'm over +15% on men)...
 
Last edited:
Sono07 said:
Hopefully Dalby and Aspinal come through, partly fading both their opponents.

●Dalby+ Aspinal -3 1/2 4u for 5u

●Wood+ Aspinal -3 1/2 1u for 1u

●Dalby - 3 1/2+ Aspinal -3 1/2 +
Sobotta +3 1/2 + Gus .5u for 2.5u
Click to expand...
Got burned by Dalby, didn't think Ronson had it in him. Managed to get Rua Dec after r2 to break even though.
Prebets -3.5u

Live (Rua Dec +3.5)
Total 0
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot_2020-07-26-10-00-26.png
    Screenshot_2020-07-26-10-00-26.png
    124.1 KB · Views: 2
HockeyBjj said:
On one hand: that’s like a 30% return on investment

On the other: that’s a fat pile of nope from me
Click to expand...
I had 8K + to win 650 haha. If he bets anything like me ( obviously bets better ) there is no risk of losing it all.
Lots of hedges, minimizing risk etc and most of the sum on low risk plays.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,741
Messages
55,514,373
Members
174,805
Latest member
hardscarf

Share this page

Back
Top