UFC on ESPN 19 Hermansson vs. Holland Official Bets

[Crimp_Keeper]

Dear lord, we are doing this again, in the bet thread

You right. Posts deleted.

 

[2020Tracked]

Smolka at 1.75 for 1 unit
Jackson at 2.80 for 1 unit
Hermanson at 2.20 for 1 unit

Collier/Villante over 1.5 rounds at 1.67 for 1.5 units
Collier/Villante GTD at 2.80 for 0.5 units
Dolidze sub at 9.00 for 0.25 units
Durden KO/TKO at 5.50 for 0.5 units
Durden KO/TKO + Dolidze sub at 46.00 for 0.1 units
Jaynes sub round 1 at 34.00, and sub round 2 at 41.00 for 0.05 units each (Punt on a club and sub but I do favour Benitez to win the fight)

Did have Topuria in some parleys but I cashed out and I also had a money line play on Benitez that I also cashed out.

I have a feeling this will be a boom or bust card and it will look so obvious which ever way it goes.

 

[TeamVamos]

Allen $40 +175
Smolka $50 -130
Osp $40 +140
Villante + Flick $25

 

[Devilboy86]

1U Jackson / Topuria ITD -230
1U Santos / DLR GTD -280

 

[Krieg the Psycho]

Vettori 1.3u -123

Hill DEC 0.5u +275
OSP SUB 0.2u +325

Allan 0.6u +177
Dolidze SUB 0.25u +600

Evloev 1u -400

Durden KO 0.3u +375

Santos + Evloev 1.3u -123
Flick/Durden u2.5 + Benitez/Jaynes DNGTD 1u +152

 

[BaldOpie]

£2 Benitez
£2 Smolka
£1 OSP + Evloev
£1 free bet on Dolidze sub

On a related note I just did the math - I've won £3.33 on free spins this week so this makes my total risk £1.67 and potential winnings £16.97 those numbers made my day. Nothing makes me happier than violating the bookmaker like this.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Collier/Villante- Over 1,5 for 75$ -175
Topia/Jackson- Under 2.5 for 75 -160
Durden+140 for 100
Leavitt/Wiman- Over 2.5-120 for 150
Smolka-120 for 75
Jaynes/Benitez-under 2.5 -140 for 75
Evolev-Over 2.5-190 for 75
Dolidize-185 for 75
Santos dec-110 for 75
Hill-175 for 75
Vettori-145 for 150

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Wanted to start tape early, but due to the demands of work and life, and especially my soon to be 1 year-old son, only started it Wednesday night. Thus, I only taped 3 fights, but ended up betting all of them;

1.4u on Hermansson-Vetori over 2.5 rounds at -140
0.8u on Hermansson at +119
2u on MDLR-Santos GTD at -200 (Edit-CANCELED!!!!)
1.9u on Villante at -190

 

[Devilboy86]

With the girl fight off I added Smolka / Quinonez ITD 1U to win 2.2U

 

[Deleted member 316645]

OSP +150 100 to win 150
Smolka ITD +210 100 to win 210
Smolka ITD + ME o2.5 50 to win 220
ME o2.5 -135 405 to win 300

Will probably LB Jack

 

[shankmcgank]

Leavitt and Jane's bets were shamelessly piggybacked from @Sadistics. Gotta give credit where credit is due !!! Thanks as always, for posting your picks bro.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

Dangerous way to look at it. You're betting the line not the fighter.

If I get action on the right side of an opener that moves close to 100 points, I sleep like a baby regardless of the outcome. I find myself hunting for that more than anything now. On average, over time, can’t lose.

 

[benebox]

Added...
£50 Jaynes rd 1 +700 to win £350. I would be annoyed if I didn't copy this hedge and it came though.

Where you at @BigSteve No bets this week?

 

[BigSteve]

sorry everyone probably the weakest attempt at research this week. Popped a dexy and finished up just now haha.
Work, back to training and social commitments fked me. Bit of fun this week, dont mind losing cash lets see what sticks :

Jackson 200 to win 400
Jackson RD3 50 to win 1,100
Topuria RD1/2 100 to win 195

Smolka 572 to win 400
Smolka finish 190 to win 400
Smolka KO 50 to win 250
Quinonez DEC 100 to win 225

Levit RD3/DEC 143 to win 200

Levit Start RD2 + Topuria/Jackson Finish 400 to win 417

Allen KO/DEC 200 to win 540
Dolidze SUB 100 to win 600

Benitez 1,000 to win 480
Benitez Finish 100 to win 195
Jaynes RD1 150 to win 1.050

Hill 400 to win 235
Hill KO/DEC 400 to win 280

Got a U on Hermansson, might cash out will see how the night goes. GG everyone

 

[xhaydenx]

I wanted to go big on Santos but that got scratched and ruined everything.

I'm thinking Damon Jackson as a 3.00 dog. He bet Bektic last time late when Bektic gassed after heaps of grappling. Guy he's fighting tonight is also a heavy grappler who dominated in his last fight and almost lost because he was so completely gassed by the third.

Thinking Damon repeats the process and gets a win.

 

[Langinbang187]

Two small bets for this one.

OSP at +140
Vettori at -140

Don't love either of them, hence why they're small.

 

[Devilboy86]

1U Jackson / Topuria ITD -230
1U Santos / DLR GTD -280

With the girl fight off I added Smolka / Quinonez ITD 1U to win 2.2U

Won all 3 bets +3.6 Units on 3.5 U bet

 

[benebox]

£75 Hermansen +115 to win £86.25

£500 Benitez +100 to win £500

£17 Dolizde sub +800 to win £153

£100 Leavitt 1.5 -204 to win £49
£35 Leavitt decision +190 to win £65.62

£10 Topuria -149 to win £6.70

£140 Villante / Collier over 1.5 -137 to win £102.20

Added during event...
£10 OSP decision +1100 to win £110
..............................
Net Profit: £520.90

 

[BigSteve]

sorry everyone probably the weakest attempt at research this week. Popped a dexy and finished up just now haha.
Work, back to training and social commitments fked me. Bit of fun this week, dont mind losing cash lets see what sticks :

Jackson 200 to win 400
Jackson RD3 50 to win 1,100
Topuria RD1/2 100 to win 195

Smolka 572 to win 400
Smolka finish 190 to win 400
Smolka KO 50 to win 250
Quinonez DEC 100 to win 225

Levit RD3/DEC 143 to win 200

Levit Start RD2 + Topuria/Jackson Finish 400 to win 417 Didn't process bet

Allen KO/DEC 200 to win 540
Dolidze SUB 100 to win 600

Benitez 1,000 to win 480
Benitez Finish 100 to win 195
Jaynes RD1 150 to win 1.050

Hill 400 to win 235
Hill KO/DEC 400 to win 280

Got a U on Hermansson, might cash out will see how the night goes. GG everyone

Added pre bet :

OSP Finish 215

Added Live:

Hermanson 100

+1,142 = 2.8u Lucky my multy didnt process, was rushing to place it before the card. Unfortunate Allan got his knee jacked but didnt tap.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Wanted to start tape early, but due to the demands of work and life, and especially my soon to be 1 year-old son, only started it Wednesday night. Thus, I only taped 3 fights, but ended up betting all of them;

1.4u on Hermansson-Vetori over 2.5 rounds at -140
0.8u on Hermansson at +119
2u on MDLR-Santos GTD at -200 (Edit-CANCELED!!!!)
1.9u on Villante at -190

Added another 1u on Hermansson at +125. Once again, absolutely no good live-bet lines I could find.

-2.7u overall.

Ugh, second straight week in a row that I lose betting one shit heavyweight at roughly -200 against another shit heavyweight. I thought Collier didn't train at all, but he actually showed some technical improvement over his fights from 2017. I didn't bet much on this or Parisian last week, but I guess I need to get even tighter in these situations, and ignore the underdog being a disgusting fat bastard, because hey, it's heavyweights, and they fucking suck, so being a slob isn't much of a handicap.

Not happy with that late 1u added on Hermansson. I knew the danger, and should have spent it on the GTD, which suddenly swelled from +160 to +200. Would have turned a -2.7u night into a +0.3u one.

In general, I think I need to get a little more aggressive with my prop plays. Can't even remember the last time I lost one, and I have something like a 45% ROI since I started tracking them.

Oh well, lessons learned, and let's hope the commie cough doesn't decimate next week's PPV as badly!