UFC on ESPN 20 PBP/Discussion

Hi everyone, +5u for me to start the year, glad to see many of us did well tonight.
Lol at 49-46
 
Bit gutted the free bet prop of Chiesa submission didn't come in at 6 but 2U for Chiesa at 2.10 was decent enough, main regret was not betting more.

Fight went pretty much how I expected, said in the main discussion topic that his cardio wouldn't be much of a concern here, the move up in weight class has resolved it.
 
chiesa via sub or decision at +200 was a hell of a line on b365 sadly only 0.7u on that. I need to learn to bet bigger on certain spots
 
Chiesa's grappling is obviously on an other level, and he is strong af at 170, but I'm still not sold on him becoming a contender for 2 reasons:
1) cardio
2) Cormier might praise his improvement in striking as much as he wants, his footwork is horrendous, he keeps crossing the feet all the time when moving, which is a beginner mistake.

Cool guy though, and won me 3u
 
Dooze said:
Bit gutted the free bet prop of Chiesa submission didn't come in at 6 but 2U for Chiesa at 2.10 was decent enough, main regret was not betting more.

Fight went pretty much how I expected, said in the main discussion topic that his cardio wouldn't be much of a concern here, the move up in weight class has resolved it.
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His cardio is not much of a concern as long as it stays on the ground, against a good wrestler he will struggle to take him down in the later rounds, and obviously on the feet he is super vulnerable+tired af.
 
I think Magny famous conditioning might be overrated, low volume and doesn't burst in-out of transitions to get ahead at critical times

Tough fight to sharp
 
Chiesa gonna be great fade material, he ain't beating anyone anymore at 170 if you ask me.
Khamzat : as good as him in the grappling department, way better striker
Leon and Mas : enough tdd to keep that on the feet and outstrike/outcardio him
Burns : too dangerous on the ground, better striker, better cardio
Usman and Colby : as good in grappling if not better, way better strikers, way better cardio
 
Syndrm said:
I think Magny famous conditioning might be overrated, low volume and doesn't burst in-out of transitions to get ahead at critical times

Tough fight to sharp
Click to expand...
Bad gameplan anyway. He should have avoided the clinch at all cost. He actually welcomed it and even pursued it. Mind boggling.....
 
GoatArtemLobov said:
Chiesa's grappling is obviously on an other level, and he is strong af at 170, but I'm still not sold on him becoming a contender for 2 reasons:
1) cardio
2) Cormier might praise his improvement in striking as much as he wants, his footwork is horrendous, he keeps crossing the feet all the time when moving, which is a beginner mistake.

Cool guy though, and won me 3u
Click to expand...

Cardio?

He didn't slow down an iota at any point in the first 3 rounds, and then slowed down minimally in rounds 4 and 5, still more than enough to win both stanzas against Magny, who everyone thought would have great cardio.

That's absolutely extraordinary for how much he grapples and is constantly moving. The only guy with clearly better cardio than Chiesa at 170 is Covington.
 
GoatArtemLobov said:
Chiesa gonna be great fade material, he ain't beating anyone anymore at 170 if you ask me.
Khamzat : as good as him in the grappling department, way better striker
Leon and Mas : enough tdd to keep that on the feet and outstrike/outcardio him
Burns : too dangerous on the ground, better striker, better cardio
Usman and Colby : as good in grappling if not better, way better strikers, way better cardio
Click to expand...

I agree on every single one of these except slightly on Burns.

I know how accomplished Burns is in the BJJ world, but Chiesa is a BIG WW that thrives wherever it goes on the ground.

And Burns has good cardio, but most people think he has phenomenal cardio because he took Woodley who is WASHED down repeatedly with ease. Woodley off of his back isn't nearly as threatening as Chiesa. If Chiesa was on his back, he'd force scrambles and sap Burns energy(as well as his own).

There's grappling, and MMA grappling -- and I think, dare I say it, Chiesa would fare well with Burns on the ground.

Chiesa would probably be +275, I'd play him there.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Cardio?

He didn't slow down an iota at any point in the first 3 rounds, and then slowed down minimally in rounds 4 and 5, still more than enough to win both stanzas against Magny, who everyone thought would have great cardio.

That's absolutely extraordinary for how much he grapples and is constantly moving. The only guy with clearly better cardio than Chiesa at 170 is Covington.
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Because he is such a proficient grappler that he still flows on the ground despite being tired, but you could clearly see that he wasn't that impressive anymore with the tkds and completely gassed on the feet, which cause a deterioration in footwork that was pretty clear IMO.
Btw, as I said it before, his footwork was horrendous, even more after r3, he kind of runs from side to side while crossing his feet... still a big hole in his game if you ask me.
 
Kyle Stephens said:
Agree... But Magny doesn't need to hurt Chiesa. He could just control the distance and score from range. Fucking huge reach and cardio to move around for rounds after rounds. But it's not his game. It never was and probably never will.

Edit: To me Chiesa looked slightly smaller than Magny. He's just the better wrestler and moves faster with these positions because he knows them better.
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Magny has never been able to use his reach though, so yeah that's not his game. His striking footwork really isn't that good either. So it's not so much bad fight IQ or being dumb as that his body looks like that of a long, wiry striker but he's always been a gritty clinch fighter/grappler. (That's kinda what you said, but I just think saying he's dumb isn't true. He can't do something he's not really capable of doing.)

Magny is a bit taller, but look at the weigh in pic. Chiesa is just way thicker. He's clearly stronger too, seemingly by a wide margin. Look at when Neil took his back standing in round 2 and tried to drag him backwards to the mat. On most guys Neil has them down and has their back. Chiesa just pure brute-forced his way to top position while turning. A pure strength move, not really a technique most guys would ever try to use in that scramble because it rarely works and if you're not strong as an ox you end up face down on the mat with the guy on your back flattening you out.
 
Invictis said:
I agree on every single one of these except slightly on Burns.

I know how accomplished Burns is in the BJJ world, but Chiesa is a BIG WW that thrives wherever it goes on the ground.

And Burns has good cardio, but most people think he has phenomenal cardio because he took Woodley who is WASHED down repeatedly with ease. Woodley off of his back isn't nearly as threatening as Chiesa. If Chiesa was on his back, he'd force scrambles and sap Burns energy(as well as his own).

There's grappling, and MMA grappling -- and I think, dare I say it, Chiesa would fare well with Burns on the ground.

Chiesa would probably be +275, I'd play him there.
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Agree, I still favor Burns, but that would be my least confident bet along with Khamzat (since we still don't exactly know what he's made of)
I'd say I give him 30% chance against Burns (don't forget Burns can also decide to strike with him and completely outclass him there if he wants), 30% against Khamzat, 25% against Mas and Leon, and less than 20% against Colby and Usman
 
GoatArtemLobov said:
Chiesa gonna be great fade material, he ain't beating anyone anymore at 170 if you ask me.
Khamzat : as good as him in the grappling department, way better striker
Leon and Mas : enough tdd to keep that on the feet and outstrike/outcardio him
Burns : too dangerous on the ground, better striker, better cardio
Usman and Colby : as good in grappling if not better, way better strikers, way better cardio
Click to expand...
Agree. Magny is probably his ceiling in this division. I don't think he has chances vs. anybody (from the high ranked guys) who can and most importantly - WANTS to stop his wrestling. If he can't make it a ground battle he has to stand. But he's too slow there. And not technical enough to make up for it. He's scrappy and has a chin, but vs. top 10 WWs I don't think this will cut it.
 
Syndrm said:
I think Magny famous conditioning might be overrated, low volume and doesn't burst in-out of transitions to get ahead at critical times

Tough fight to sharp
Click to expand...
i think he had the better cardio of the two tonight but neil was very hesitant to pull the trigger. and like others said, he doesnt use his reach or anything. prolly max for his potential here while others are still growing.
 
Watching MMA through the years I learned that most tall guys in MMA aren't going to learn to strike from distance and be good outfighters. They just prefer to use their height because it's simpler. It's easier to learn to strike in the clinch, you don't need to guage distance, learn footwork, headmovement etc. Less taxing on the cardio. You gotta have great cardio and a pair of conditioned legs to not only move around, but move around in a fighting stance in which you can go in and out fast - lower, almost boxing kind of stance - and it gets tough to maintain that after a while, especially if you are a tall MF.
 
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