UFC on ESPN 21 PBP/Discussion

[svmr_db]

Man, I have no idea how to gauge my level of confidence on fights lately. I'm hitting bets like da Silva and Ruiz, but playing those small. Then losing on a guy like Holland who is my biggest play. I was shocked at how little he tried pushing the pace when Brunson was clearly tired and looking fairly uncomfortable at any point they were standing.

Did you take the Darren Stewart fight or any other fight where Holland got controlled into account before backing him? I feel a lot of people who backed Holland got high on his win streak despite none of the wins standing out too much on their own merits.

Also Brunson has tightened up his game since he switched camps, more responsible defensively. A lot of people bought in that Holland was just going to highlight reel him in 2 rounds. I didn't think Holland had the toolset to win a long fight if he didn't get that early finish.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Did you take the Darren Stewart fight or any other fight where Holland got controlled into account before backing him? I feel a lot of people who backed Holland got high on his win streak despite none of the wins standing out too much on their own merits.

Also Brunson has tightened up his game since he switched camps, more responsible defensively. A lot of people bought in that Holland was just going to highlight reel him in 2 rounds. I didn't think Holland had the toolset to win a long fight if he didn't get that early finish.

So crazy to think that no one else noticed this and legitimately 82% of people were on Holland.

Brunson's line inflated above +170 before the fight, and closed @ +180.

I was on Brunson since this was announced, and watched a show with 4 what I would consider fairly decent cappers after the weigh ins, and all 4 had Brunson.

Other podcasts I watched, I saw a lot of Holland picks, but overall all the cappers I trust had Brunson.

 

[Sono07]

Did you take the Darren Stewart fight or any other fight where Holland got controlled into account before backing him? I feel a lot of people who backed Holland got high on his win streak despite none of the wins standing out too much on their own merits.

Also Brunson has tightened up his game since he switched camps, more responsible defensively. A lot of people bought in that Holland was just going to highlight reel him in 2 rounds. I didn't think Holland had the toolset to win a long fight if he didn't get that early finish.

Honestly I'm not even sure Holland wanted to win that fight very much. He seems content floating around top 15 and crushing cans. He might try to go to 170 to start over in the rankings and keep the low level wins coming. Can't find it but he made some post about how he never said he wanted to be the champ. I think he knows he is probably a better fringe 15 kinda fighter rather than top 5-10.

 

[Sono07]

I couldn't help but laugh at this. Lewis complimenting Yanez and Yanez responds. Good to see the guy seems humble, his boxing and hand speed is nasty.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

I couldn't help but laugh at this. Lewis complimenting Yanez and Yanez responds. Good to see the guy seems humble, his boxing and hand speed is nasty.

Yanez response was a quote Lewis said recently which made it funnier

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Man, I have no idea how to gauge my level of confidence on fights lately. I'm hitting bets like da Silva and Ruiz, but playing those small. Then losing on a guy like Holland who is my biggest play. I was shocked at how little he tried pushing the pace when Brunson was clearly tired and looking fairly uncomfortable at any point they were standing.

Yeah, I've been there. What's even more infuriating is when you have certain leans/feeling about fights but decide they're too iffy to bet, and you turn out to be correct, while betting other fights big and are just a little off, enough to lose. I'm still really salty about wanting to play Anthony Hernandez against Rodolfo Vieira but then not pulling the trigger.

Also, I can't comment about da Silva, but I would absolutely not beat yourself up about Ruiz.

That was basically a shot in the dark. Who could have possibly predicted that Cheyanne Buys would have no fucking clue how to get out of a scarfhold? That's white belt level shit. Nevermind that this is Ruiz's one go-to move and you would have thought Fortis would have taught her how to counter it. Apparently not.

Now, this is why I had no zero interest in playing Buys as a juiced favorite; such mediocre, inexperienced fighters are often missing very basic skills you don't know about, but which will end up losing them a fight. On the flipside, they are random enough to where it's not a good idea to play every dog big and hope to get lucky. Certainly, this weakness didn't appear anywhere on tape.

 

[Oblivian]

Did you take the Darren Stewart fight or any other fight where Holland got controlled into account before backing him? I feel a lot of people who backed Holland got high on his win streak despite none of the wins standing out too much on their own merits.

Also Brunson has tightened up his game since he switched camps, more responsible defensively. A lot of people bought in that Holland was just going to highlight reel him in 2 rounds. I didn't think Holland had the toolset to win a long fight if he didn't get that early finish.

My read was a bit different. Definitely didn't feel Holland would just starch him. I assumed he'd make Brunson uncomfortable by withstanding Brunson's blitzes standing and then work back up when taken down. The 5 rounds was a big factor for me. I figured Brunson would end up getting frustrated and fight wild. I expected Holland to take over late. There were glimpses of Brunson looking uncomfortable and potentially gassing, but Holland definitely didn't hold up his end of the bargain.

Definitely a frustrating fight to watch that probably could have gone differently, but Holland was square as hell. Especially to feel confident in him.

 

[Sono07]

Honestly the Ruiz thing was somewhere between hilarious and embarrassing. Buys studied Ruiz to train a friend of hers to fight Conejo. She even brings up the throws prefight in an interview.

She says something like "Yeah I know her stupid little head and arm throws" apparently she didn't know them well enough. I'm curious to see who the love child of Andrade and Oleinik will fight next. Hopefully we get good odds on someone who can spell clinch break. Can't be too salty at the "Mad Rabbit" though, she made the face offs a little more entertaining.