UFC on ESPN+ 28 Lee vs Oliveira

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I'm interested in hearing other's thoughts on Maia vs Burns and particularly, arguments for Burns. Maia sitting at +185 now seems insane to me.

Burns TDD has looked average at best, as he typically invites grappling, and while his BJJ is excellent it's a notch or two below Maia's imo. All of Burns opponents have avoided going to the ground with him, something which Maia obviously won't do. He also spent significant time against the fence in his last fight against Gunnar, where Maia excels and can work his chain wrestling. Not to mention Maia completely dominated Gunnar, where as Burns was very competitive with him and won with a takedown in the final minute.

The main advantages I see for Burns are striking, speed and cardio, although he has looked better at 170 it's not like he's a cardio machine either. Maia's last 4 losses (Usman, Woodley, Covington, Rory) have all come against opponents with what I would consider elite takedown defense, and superior striking and/or volume to Burns. His only other loss at 170 was way back in 2013 to Shields, which was an extremely close fight against a larger opponent who has fought at 185.

Maia is coming to the end of his career and while I think it's going to be difficult for him to submit Burns, I believe with his size and strength advantages he can win this fight via two or even three rounds of control. Burns has suggested in interviews that he plans on subbing Maia so it sounds like he's going to willingly grapple here. I have to favor Maia in that type of fight.

I would love to here some opposing opinions.
 
t6p said:
I'm interested in hearing other's thoughts on Maia vs Burns and particularly, arguments for Burns. Maia sitting at +185 now seems insane to me.

Burns TDD has looked average at best, as he typically invites grappling, and while his BJJ is excellent it's a notch or two below Maia's imo. All of Burns opponents have avoided going to the ground with him, something which Maia obviously won't do. He also spent significant time against the fence in his last fight against Gunnar, where Maia excels and can work his chain wrestling. Not to mention Maia completely dominated Gunnar, where as Burns was very competitive with him and won with a takedown in the final minute.

The main advantages I see for Burns are striking, speed and cardio, although he has looked better at 170 it's not like he's a cardio machine either. Maia's last 4 losses (Usman, Woodley, Covington, Rory) have all come against opponents with what I would consider elite takedown defense, and superior striking and/or volume to Burns. His only other loss at 170 was way back in 2013 to Shields, which was an extremely close fight against a larger opponent who has fought at 185.

Maia is coming to the end of his career and while I think it's going to be difficult for him to submit Burns, I believe with his size and strength advantages he can win this fight via two or even three rounds of control. Burns has suggested in interviews that he plans on subbing Maia so it sounds like he's going to willingly grapple here. I have to favor Maia in that type of fight.

I would love to here some opposing opinions.
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Laugh at me if you want but I think one of the best analogs (in terms of kickboxing) that Maia has faced relative to Burns is Tyron Woodly. Twood and burns both throw hard single shots mostly (Burns has more volume of course) but both have average footwork and get backed into the fence easily. Being on the fence is where Maia wants you and hes trapped better fighters with better TDD against there and got ahold of their backs. I can't really speak to their BJJ styles but I can pretty much be assured that Burns probably learned a lot of his techniques from Maias DVDs though you know?
 
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t6p said:
I'm interested in hearing other's thoughts on Maia vs Burns and particularly, arguments for Burns. Maia sitting at +185 now seems insane to me.

Burns TDD has looked average at best, as he typically invites grappling, and while his BJJ is excellent it's a notch or two below Maia's imo. All of Burns opponents have avoided going to the ground with him, something which Maia obviously won't do. He also spent significant time against the fence in his last fight against Gunnar, where Maia excels and can work his chain wrestling. Not to mention Maia completely dominated Gunnar, where as Burns was very competitive with him and won with a takedown in the final minute.

The main advantages I see for Burns are striking, speed and cardio, although he has looked better at 170 it's not like he's a cardio machine either. Maia's last 4 losses (Usman, Woodley, Covington, Rory) have all come against opponents with what I would consider elite takedown defense, and superior striking and/or volume to Burns. His only other loss at 170 was way back in 2013 to Shields, which was an extremely close fight against a larger opponent who has fought at 185.

Maia is coming to the end of his career and while I think it's going to be difficult for him to submit Burns, I believe with his size and strength advantages he can win this fight via two or even three rounds of control. Burns has suggested in interviews that he plans on subbing Maia so it sounds like he's going to willingly grapple here. I have to favor Maia in that type of fight.

I would love to here some opposing opinions.
Click to expand...

I pretty much agree with everything you said, I think Burns isn't bluffing when he says he is going to try to submit him and will try to roll with Maia which is basically digging his own grave.
 
t6p said:
I'm interested in hearing other's thoughts on Maia vs Burns and particularly, arguments for Burns. Maia sitting at +185 now seems insane to me.

Burns TDD has looked average at best, as he typically invites grappling, and while his BJJ is excellent it's a notch or two below Maia's imo. All of Burns opponents have avoided going to the ground with him, something which Maia obviously won't do. He also spent significant time against the fence in his last fight against Gunnar, where Maia excels and can work his chain wrestling. Not to mention Maia completely dominated Gunnar, where as Burns was very competitive with him and won with a takedown in the final minute.

The main advantages I see for Burns are striking, speed and cardio, although he has looked better at 170 it's not like he's a cardio machine either. Maia's last 4 losses (Usman, Woodley, Covington, Rory) have all come against opponents with what I would consider elite takedown defense, and superior striking and/or volume to Burns. His only other loss at 170 was way back in 2013 to Shields, which was an extremely close fight against a larger opponent who has fought at 185.

Maia is coming to the end of his career and while I think it's going to be difficult for him to submit Burns, I believe with his size and strength advantages he can win this fight via two or even three rounds of control. Burns has suggested in interviews that he plans on subbing Maia so it sounds like he's going to willingly grapple here. I have to favor Maia in that type of fight.

I would love to here some opposing opinions.
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Haven't taped yet but agree with all that. I took some Maia +145 blind with memories of Prazeres/Burns and Maia/Gunnar, obviously wish I waited.
 
Sadistics said:
Haven't taped yet but agree with all that. I took some Maia +145 blind with memories of Prazeres/Burns and Maia/Gunnar, obviously wish I waited.
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I’m usually pretty decent at predicting movement but I got burned badly on this. Already put my max stake down on Maia at an average price of +114. I was expecting him to get bet and end up in the -150 to -175 range. Painful watching his price continue to rise.

I’d be interested to hear if your thoughts change at all after tape.
 
t6p said:
I’m usually pretty decent at predicting movement but I got burned badly on this. Already put my max stake down on Maia at an average price of +114. I was expecting him to get bet and end up in the -150 to -175 range. Painful watching his price continue to rise.

I’d be interested to hear if your thoughts change at all after tape.
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I'll try to remember to @ you after I tape it
 
I think most of the favorites will see better prices on them during fight week. If you like dogs this card its probably best to jump now.
 
t6p said:
I'm interested in hearing other's thoughts on Maia vs Burns and particularly, arguments for Burns. Maia sitting at +185 now seems insane to me.

Burns TDD has looked average at best, as he typically invites grappling, and while his BJJ is excellent it's a notch or two below Maia's imo. All of Burns opponents have avoided going to the ground with him, something which Maia obviously won't do. He also spent significant time against the fence in his last fight against Gunnar, where Maia excels and can work his chain wrestling. Not to mention Maia completely dominated Gunnar, where as Burns was very competitive with him and won with a takedown in the final minute.

The main advantages I see for Burns are striking, speed and cardio, although he has looked better at 170 it's not like he's a cardio machine either. Maia's last 4 losses (Usman, Woodley, Covington, Rory) have all come against opponents with what I would consider elite takedown defense, and superior striking and/or volume to Burns. His only other loss at 170 was way back in 2013 to Shields, which was an extremely close fight against a larger opponent who has fought at 185.

Maia is coming to the end of his career and while I think it's going to be difficult for him to submit Burns, I believe with his size and strength advantages he can win this fight via two or even three rounds of control. Burns has suggested in interviews that he plans on subbing Maia so it sounds like he's going to willingly grapple here. I have to favor Maia in that type of fight.

I would love to here some opposing opinions.
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I'm about to pull the trigger on Maia at +170. He only has to 4 out of 10 times for that bet to profitable. Seems pretty good to me..
 
I think Lee takes this rather easily, will post a better analysis when I'm not quite as hungover.

"
You are no longer able to reply to the thread UFC 248 Adesanya vs Romero. Reason: unsubstantiated PED accusations even after being warned not to do it any more"
 
Invictis said:
I think Lee takes this rather easily, will post a better analysis when I'm not quite as hungover.

"
You are no longer able to reply to the thread UFC 248 Adesanya vs Romero. Reason: unsubstantiated PED accusations even after being warned not to do it any more"
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Where in the rules does it say you can’t speculate if a fighter is on peds? How is that fighter bashing?

And when has it EVER been a problem in the betting forum? We talk about fighters we think are juicing all the time

I like weili zhang and all but I’m not naive.
 
ill800 said:
Where in the rules does it say you can’t speculate if a fighter is on peds? How is that fighter bashing?

And when has it EVER been a problem in the betting forum? We talk about fighters we think are juicing all the time

I like weili zhang and all but I’m not naive.
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Yeah, is this a Zhang-specific ordinance? I'm sure I've discussed PEDs at length on other fights/fighters before
 
Gugabe said:
Yeah, is this a Zhang-specific ordinance? I'm sure I've discussed PEDs at length on other fights/fighters before
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Suuuure seems that way
 
Gugabe said:
Yeah, is this a Zhang-specific ordinance? I'm sure I've discussed PEDs at length on other fights/fighters before
Click to expand...

It's definitely odd, first time I've gotten an infraction on these fine forums too.

Makes me wanna switch sides in the fight. The mods are adhering to an agenda, one in which Zhang's name can't be smeared.

Also, JJ is staying at New York New York. Why would you ever stay there?
 
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