UFC on ESPN+ 28 Lee vs Oliveira

No one is saying “fighters missing weight have won recently.

We’re going off of stats. And the numbers are as follows; 67% of the last 33 UFC fighters that came in overweight have won. That’s not a made up number. Check for yourself.

Just looked into this. Interesting that the stat cut off at 33. I could say that more fighters lost that missed weight in the last 21 fights. It's just picking and choosing where you do your cutoff. Here are the results over 76 fights, which really isn't a large sample size. I'm telling you, if you extend it on a further sample size, you are really going to rethink your thoughts on this.

https://www.betmma.tips/ufc_fighters_who_missed_weight.php
 
Thoughts:

Oliveira/Lee: I think missing weight is case by case, I'm with @Oblivian. I'm not saying you COMPLETELY discount trends, but that shouldn't be a major factor. Lee...has shown suspect cardio to say the least. Esp at LW. I don't see this as a good thing for him, not in these circumstances. One prop that looks like it has value to me is Oliveira KO at +800. He's a sub machine sure, but his striking has taken leaps and Lee can be hit. Charles last two fights were KO wins. You're getting over 3x the payout of his sub line.

Maia/Burns: Gilbert is likely good enough to avoid being subbed. He's a legit world class grappler himself. He's the more dynamic striker, and maybe has a LITTLE better gas tank. But you have to give Maia a decent shot of getting top position and outgrappling Burns early at least. Maybe winning rds 1 and 2 and losing rd 3. He could get lit up standing for sure if he can't close the distance and implement his grappling, but I still think Maia dec +260 has maybe a little value and his +3.5 at -170 maybe has some too.

Moicano/Hadzovic: Didn't tape this, and can only remember little bits of Hadzovic. Not gonna waste time commenting as it would be too much guessing. I know Renato plenty, but not Damir enough to intelligently break this down at all.

Krylov/Walker: Will be very interesting to see how Walker reacts to his last fight where he got starched. His star was arguably rising as fast as anyone's. Krylov seems talented but inconsistent. Maybe his sub line at +365 is worth a small stab? I have to think he's not going to want to stand with Walker too long. Maybe u1.0 at -110 is a play worth looking at. Walker said he was too tentative vs Anderson, if he goes balls out he'll either get a quick KO or get caught himself. Or taken down, where Krylov may be able to advance and sub him fairly quickly. FDNGTD is appropriately juiced. This isn't seeing the cards, but the line shows that.

Makdessi/Trinaldo: I like Makdessi here, probably by decision. Trinaldo is just WAY too inactive. He beat Green only because Green was equally as inactive. Makdessi can win this fight on sheer volume alone. Age may finally be catching up with Trinaldo too. Not sure if Makdessi ML at +150 or his dec line at +210 is better. Both are okay imo.

Moreno/Formiga: Kinda think Moreno is a live dog. Never know how someone will respond to being KO'd after not having been in a really long time. Moreno will fight like a dog for your $. Not sure if +150 is good enough though, line may be close to spot on.

Markos/Ribas: No idea, haven't seen Ribas enough. Not a fan of Markos, although every now and then she has a great performance (like vs Hill). Just don't know enough about Ribas to know if the juice is justified.

Kunchenko/Zaleski: I think Zaleski is more likely to finish just based on the fact he seems way more willing to take chances and go for the finish. Zaleski NSC at -110 has value imo.

Yahya/Barzola: Classic grappler vs guy who will try to sprawl n brawl and keep it standing. Rani could find an early sub for sure, but he's shown he will fade at times if he uses a lot of energy early trying for the finish. Barzola rd 3 at +1425 maybe?

Moroz/Buena Silva: Another WMMA fight where I just don't know enough about one of the fighters. I remember Moroz but not Buena Silva. No idea on this one.

Silva/Dvorak: Don't know shit about Dvorak.

Malecki/Macedo: Watched Malecki's one fight based just on the pics and the size difference. Jeez she is piss poor. Just muscles everything, little technique at all. Macedo is a way better grappler, but way smaller. I still think if she can get her down even once, she may find a sub pretty quickly. Macedo sub +350 I guess could be a play.



BOL guys, hope you smash it under these bizarre circumstances and get something to smile about!
 
I don't know why you would draw a conclusion from that tweet that he stopped the cut early.
Not saying I'm right just seems odd for him to post a frustrated tweet about the cut then come in heavy.
I like Lee here but honestly don't know what to make of this bit, just speculation on my end.
 
Just looked into this. Interesting that the stat cut off at 33. I could say that more fighters lost that missed weight in the last 21 fights. It's just picking and choosing where you do your cutoff. Here are the results over 76 fights, which really isn't a large sample size. I'm telling you, if you extend it on a further sample size, you are really going to rethink your thoughts on this.

https://www.betmma.tips/ufc_fighters_who_missed_weight.php
ufc fighters have a longer period now after the weighins to rehydrate, I think that is what is causing the large difference in winrates between fighters missing weight before 2017, and after 2017.
 
Thoughts:

Oliveira/Lee: I think missing weight is case by case, I'm with @Oblivian. I'm not saying you COMPLETELY discount trends, but that shouldn't be a major factor. Lee...has shown suspect cardio to say the least. Esp at LW. I don't see this as a good thing for him, not in these circumstances. One prop that looks like it has value to me is Oliveira KO at +800. He's a sub machine sure, but his striking has taken leaps and Lee can be hit. Charles last two fights were KO wins. You're getting over 3x the payout of his sub line.

Maia/Burns: Gilbert is likely good enough to avoid being subbed. He's a legit world class grappler himself. He's the more dynamic striker, and maybe has a LITTLE better gas tank. But you have to give Maia a decent shot of getting top position and outgrappling Burns early at least. Maybe winning rds 1 and 2 and losing rd 3. He could get lit up standing for sure if he can't close the distance and implement his grappling, but I still think Maia dec +260 has maybe a little value and his +3.5 at -170 maybe has some too.

Moicano/Hadzovic: Didn't tape this, and can only remember little bits of Hadzovic. Not gonna waste time commenting as it would be too much guessing. I know Renato plenty, but not Damir enough to intelligently break this down at all.

Krylov/Walker: Will be very interesting to see how Walker reacts to his last fight where he got starched. His star was arguably rising as fast as anyone's. Krylov seems talented but inconsistent. Maybe his sub line at +365 is worth a small stab? I have to think he's not going to want to stand with Walker too long. Maybe u1.0 at -110 is a play worth looking at. Walker said he was too tentative vs Anderson, if he goes balls out he'll either get a quick KO or get caught himself. Or taken down, where Krylov may be able to advance and sub him fairly quickly. FDNGTD is appropriately juiced. This isn't seeing the cards, but the line shows that.

Makdessi/Trinaldo: I like Makdessi here, probably by decision. Trinaldo is just WAY too inactive. He beat Green only because Green was equally as inactive. Makdessi can win this fight on sheer volume alone. Age may finally be catching up with Trinaldo too. Not sure if Makdessi ML at +150 or his dec line at +210 is better. Both are okay imo.

Moreno/Formiga: Kinda think Moreno is a live dog. Never know how someone will respond to being KO'd after not having been in a really long time. Moreno will fight like a dog for your $. Not sure if +150 is good enough though, line may be close to spot on.

Markos/Ribas: No idea, haven't seen Ribas enough. Not a fan of Markos, although every now and then she has a great performance (like vs Hill). Just don't know enough about Ribas to know if the juice is justified.

Kunchenko/Zaleski: I think Zaleski is more likely to finish just based on the fact he seems way more willing to take chances and go for the finish. Zaleski NSC at -110 has value imo.

Yahya/Barzola: Classic grappler vs guy who will try to sprawl n brawl and keep it standing. Rani could find an early sub for sure, but he's shown he will fade at times if he uses a lot of energy early trying for the finish. Barzola rd 3 at +1425 maybe?

Moroz/Buena Silva: Another WMMA fight where I just don't know enough about one of the fighters. I remember Moroz but not Buena Silva. No idea on this one.

Silva/Dvorak: Don't know shit about Dvorak.

Malecki/Macedo: Watched Malecki's one fight based just on the pics and the size difference. Jeez she is piss poor. Just muscles everything, little technique at all. Macedo is a way better grappler, but way smaller. I still think if she can get her down even once, she may find a sub pretty quickly. Macedo sub +350 I guess could be a play.



BOL guys, hope you smash it under these bizarre circumstances and get something to smile about!
For someone who doesn’t keep up like they used to, your reads are still great
 
I've got a little on Barzola hoping he brings more power coming for 145 that and I thought his grappling looked good last time out. Yahya's takedowns do have me worried.

That might be an interesting angle, if Barzola develops striking power I'll be surprised. I have always viewed him as a well rounded cardio machine who isn't a specialist or very technical in any area.

I like El fuerte and have bet him in every fight coming out of TUF (except evovlev and aguilar, I think the bochniak fight was a robbery) I think he beats a lot of low level guys with his cardio. He destroys most other Latinos. But he isn't a specialist in any area and I think he is weak to specialist fighters.

Yaya has made a career of beating that type of fighter. Of course if he gases in 5 minutes just tear up the ticket, ill have my finger on the trigger live.
 
Not saying I'm right just seems odd for him to post a frustrated tweet about the cut then come in heavy.
I like Lee here but honestly don't know what to make of this bit, just speculation on my end.
My translation: “don’t make us start cutting weight and then cancel this event”
 
Even at -150 I’m hesitant to play macedo

Edit:

Ok, I’ll take the -140

Hopefully I don’t regret this
 
My translation: “don’t make us start cutting weight and then cancel this event”
Could be. The if part just made it sound like he considered stopping.
Who knows, personally as far as the eye test goes I think he looked better weighing in here than against Gregor.
 
I don't get the obsession over the Lee weight cut.

The important issue is that Olivera is the type of fighter that gives Lee problems. If Lee doesn't get an early stoppage I think this is going to look a lot like Ferguson vs Lee
 
Even at -150 I’m hesitant to play macedo

Edit:

Ok, I’ll take the -140

Hopefully I don’t regret this
I played a 0.2u Macedo sub round 1 @ 9.0 . Not great odds, but If she fights to her advantages I feel that's how it should end. If she doesn't fight to her advantages then anything can happen against the bigger woman.
 
I don’t enjoy watching tape on low level WMMA, but just glanced over at Moroz vs Bueno Silva and I think Moroz will jab her and out hustle her. She may take Silva down at times and win a dominant decision unless she gets caught in an armbar.

Moroz +130
Moroz dec +175
Moroz +3.5 -215

Silva submission hedge +395
 
I don't get the obsession over the Lee weight cut.

The important issue is that Olivera is the type of fighter that gives Lee problems. If Lee doesn't get an early stoppage I think this is going to look a lot like Ferguson vs Lee

Charles has crumbled in the face of adversity too though.

(Keep in mind I do like Oliveira to win so I'm just playing devil's advocate a bit). Vs Felder he had Paul's back and looked to be in a great position. Once Paul escaped and reversed, Charles turtled up and got finished shortly thereafter. I'm willing to give more a pass vs Pettis since that was at 145 and no way should he ever have been cutting that much weight.

This fight **seems** to be a bit of a frontrunner vs frontrunner battle. Neither guy is known for digging deep or being able to overcome adversity. Ferguson is just plain levels above these guys in terms of toughness, so if you're on Oliveira, you aren't going to want to see Charles mounted and trying to avoid damage like Tony did vs Lee. That could be the end.

Mainly, I think Lee's striking defense is going to be his downfall. Unless Tristar has made way more serious improvements than I think, I have a feeling Charles can land hard shots on Lee and make him panic.
 
All the fights should be fairly close besides Ribas and Barzola. Macedo fight shouldnt be close but cant be sure, Macedo should be the favorite though. Formiga should be the favorite but no value in his line. I think the rest of the faves are overvalued and may be the dogs.

I have Barzola at -155 for 1.5U, Krylov +120 for 1.5U, Oliveira +120 for 1U, Makdessi +165 for 1U, Dvorak, Kunenchenko, Moroz, Maia and Hadzovic for 0.5U each.
 
I'm hitting that Macedo new line and the ITD, she still the best MMA fighter in the cage and the odds are now pretty good. May regret later.
 
Damm, Bea is getting hammered. Almost even odds now.

Oh no no, there won't be any big line swings like this. Just ask that Leclerk guy from the other thread LMAO.
 
Lee oli not going past the 2nd imo...these are 2 fighters who take risk and are aggressive starters. They wont respect each others power, and someone will get caught, causing a quick finish (both guys tend to panic when hurt and make fight ending mistakes).

Lee ITD , hedging with fight under 2 rounds
 
Macedo has to be the right side at near evens, her opponent is shit.
 
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