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UFC on ESPN 7 PBP/Discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by PolarBearPaulVarelans, Dec 7, 2019.

  1. RuthlessRich Ghost

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    Such a shit main event
     
  2. HeadsUpPoker Green Belt

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    I can see it happening. He is getting more and more confident.
     
  3. null Gold Belt

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    After round 3: Live In-Play Alistair Overeem (-200) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik $200.00 for $100.00
     
  4. betterthanjones Brown Belt

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    3-0 da reem. Rosenthal very inexperienced, those 2 TDs totally could have been avoided.
     
  5. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Honestly if Arlovski didn't get insta-memed, this kind of slow, do-nothing kickboxing fight to a 30-27 was probably the most likely outcome.
     
  6. Sono07 Brown Belt

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    Jairzinho's grappling and pace need work but he has decent boxing
     
  7. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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    Eh I cashed out don't see a finish in the 5th from reem. If he does will be happy for him regardless.
     
  8. Dathorn Brown Belt

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    4-0 or 3-1. Ubereem. I think Overeem landed better in round 4, but those flurries are going to make judges give it to Rosen probably. Overeem blocked everything that wasn't to the body except for one or two , but it still doesn't look good.
     
  9. Kowboy Karl Black Belt

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    Peek a boo reem is born
     
  10. NonPhixion Orange Belt

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    Noooo!!!
     
  11. Dave Henderson Orange Belt

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    Aspen Ladd won. I had to leave the sports book; come home and lay down. I just got destroyed. No more gambling for me. I am in total shock. I cannot believe she lost. I have never been so sure about a fight ever. I don't understand how Yana could fuck this up so bad. I am resisting the urge to send her extreme hate mail with my tickets attached. I honestly don't see how she could've lost like this. In none of her previous fights was she this horrible. Even against Cyborg she made a run of it before getting (understandably) TKO'd.

    This is really, really bad. I am flabbergasted. I cannot see this barking dog was able to win. This is absolutely nuts. I went back and bet another $4800 on Yana and Yana parlays. To make it even worse - all the other parlays picks won - except Yana.

    I want to curse up a storm and say really horrible things about this women but since there is no more free speech online I know If I go off on a rant I will get banned even here. It's probably for the best. I need to do some long soul searching and quit gambling.

    The day Ladd vs. Yana was announced I studied this fight and got in 3 weeks prior. I was waiting and spending my winnings before this fight. That is how sure I was here. Now I am out almost $9,800 plus the money I dumped on other things - spending my winnings before they won.

    I not only feel bad for myself but anyone else that bet on Yana because of my analysis. I went over everything - history, statistics, watched all the fights, personal lives. I even checked the influenza/flu chart in Washington D.C. to make sure there the flu is not going around. Travel dates. Arrival dates and from where. Everything. The only thing I missed - ironically - is that Yana is banging Thaigo Santos and left her Husband and child with a broken home - in order to bang this guy. She is out of Russia for a few months and already she behaves as a westernized "liberated" American women. So I suppose her loss is divine justice and I can take some consolation in that. But even with that new information about her personal life; business is business and it would not have been enough for me to sit this out. All the lights were green on this trade and it still went horribly wrong.

    To add insult to injury; all my other parlay picks won EXCEPT YANA and now I have lost big. I am lucky I make an upper middle class income. For other people this would be 10 months rent.

    In spite of that - I cannot keep doing this. I have to quit gambling after this. This is it for me. I play way too many parley's because winning a couple thousand on singles is nothing for me. So it's like what's the point. Yana's pathetic light to an over hyped lesser experienced - lesser in every way fighter cost me almost $30,000 in winnings. I should sent her camp hate mail. But if I did that - I would be exposed by social justice media warriors who would write all kinds of fake news click bait lies articles - and since the average person today has the attention span of a goldfish and thinks only with emotions - I would end up losing my business/clients.

    Apologies to anyone who relied on my analysis. This is why I keep this gambling to myself most of the time.

    The arrow on Yana's career is pointing down out and over after this.She even said herself beating Ladd does not give her a title shot and the division has nowhere to go. After losing here - she is now a flushed out fighter. I also noticed how OLD she looked at the weigh ins compared to young Ladd - but thought little of it. I also noticed heavy action coming on on Ladd at the last moments pushing Yana up to a +160 underdog - but again I thought it was dumb money fan boys and thought nothing of it and went and bet even MORE money on Yana.

    Yana's next fight should be against Ashley Evans Smith or Jessica Eye. After this loss Yana is trash and has nowhere to go in this sport anymore except the bottom of the division. Her movement sucked. Her range sucked. Her kicks sucked. Her JJ sucked. She did not offer up ANYTHING except play to Ladd's only strong point. She could've literally ran around the ring boxing her and range and won on points. That's all she had to do. Instead she clinches up with Ladd and willingly goes to the ground. Yana didn't even offer up anything off her back! Because maybe the only thing she has left to offer up off her back is to Thiago Santos.

    I have been betting on UFC for years. I am now out a large chunk of cash over this. Almost $10,000 cash. Not credit. Not casino markers. CASH. It's not the first time. I got absolutely killed in 2018. The only other time that I bet so much money on a fighter I was so sure would win - was Robbie Lawler vs. RDA where Lawler showed up to fight with a torn ACL and didn't tell anyone. Lawler went 5 rounds regardless nonetheless I still got taken to the cleaners and to add more insult to injury was accosted in the Sports Book by a vagrant scammer and a drunk redneck and his friend. But unlike that fight - in this case there is zero reported injury or excuse for Yana to have lost by TKO in the 3rd.

    I will need to do some serious soul searching if UFC gambling is something I want to continue as an entertaining side hobby business. My account has gone down into the red again and I'm not gonna martingale it up like I did the last times..

    My deepest apologies to anyone who bet based on my analysis. I think it's better if I take a long, long vacation at this point. Best of luck.









    ....
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2019
  12. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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    Holy shit!

    Overeem's lip looks fucked up!
     
  13. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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    Never in million years did I expect decision win thought he would finish this amateur.
     
  14. TrueAscension Brown Belt

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  15. Barkus Brown Belt

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    What the fuck is Big Dan doing?
     
  16. Sono07 Brown Belt

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    Holy fucking shit
    Biggi Boy with the late power!
     
  17. letmebangbrah Green Belt

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  18. FimbulFightPicks Purple Belt

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    I was literally counting seconds...1 second 1%.....no fkn way....ffs...gives me volkov flashbacks...unbelieveable...
    Pretty big loss for the night, prebet and livebet....ffs...

    This is why i consider hedging just to cover the bets not even profit, when we get odds like 10-15. etc...may not work long term, but shit like this...fuck.

    0.5U extra livebet, and 1U prebet on overreem lost..

    Sorry to everyone else who lost, gratz to rozen backers..damm.
     
  19. Crimp_Keeper Brown Belt

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  20. NonPhixion Orange Belt

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    Black beast Volkov 2.0
     

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