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UFC on Fox 21: Condit vs Maia - Vancouver

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Aug 9, 2016.

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  1. infersports White Belt

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    Last time I check this was the betting forum? Betting like in making money out of the result of the event? Or I read this wrong?
     
  2. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    There is no way to follow you since you don't explain the numbers you seem to randomly pull from your behind.

    Would you bet Olivera at 21.00? 10.00? 5.00?
     
  3. plekz Brown Belt

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    you are trying to plug and sell your piece of shit service on a public message board. which is against policy, especially considering you have links to your fucking ''website'' where you sell said service in your sig section. you are also a grade a fucking moron who attempts to act like you are neo in the matrix, using some bullshit make belief algorithm you've conjured up that you yourself cant even explain the logic of.

    you posting your ''picks'' here for ''free'' now is so that if you happen to be correct on this event, you are hoping to drive traffic on to your own site, and thus sell your picks for future events. it's pretty fucking transparent son.
     
  4. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    I think Bec has a 90% chance of winning. Not betting on her at +200 though.
     
  5. BobsyaUncle Brown Belt

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    That might explain not betting Oliveira. But it doesn't explain why you're betting favourites who have more expensive odds relative to your probability calculations.
     
  6. wack3d Silver Belt

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    makes sense :eek:
     
  7. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    Thanks! The infersports model has worked wonders for me.
     
  8. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Ive bet on bec but i really only see this going to a dec cannot see a bec finish
     
  9. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Nobody is going to follow you because you aren't making any sense. Plekz is the guy coming at you with a sledgehammer, and honestly so far from what you've posted you pretty much deserve it. I'm going to take the more subtle approach in an attempt to allow you to somehow explain what you've posted so far. Because honestly saying "the error estimating this probability" is complete and utter garbage.

    YOU are the ones "estimating this probability". Your service, your "system", whatever. You can't on one hand tell us what your system believes the odds of fighter x winning and then turn around and say "But we are going to make a recommendation that completely disregards our probability because of (insert whatever silly word you want--variance, margin of error, whatever)". Why even calculate what you think the odds of fighter x winning are if you aren't then going to take that info, compare it to the current betting line, and place your wagers accordingly? You keep saying it's "not that simple". But in reality, it IS that simple.

    Real talk: You are doing exactly what Plekz said you are doing. Hoping to have a good event and gain a couple subscribers. You'd have been better off just posting "Here, bet on these 5 guys" with no explanation at all. Instead you've posted a a bunch of nonsense. No offense, but you aren't the smartest guy in the room and we all just don't get it. I know English isn't your first language, but you completely botched this buddy. Nobody is going to pay you a dime from this site even if you get lucky and have a great event. The lack of any type of actual logic in making your picks has pretty much ensured that. Sorry man.
     
  10. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    What infersports is saying is just going to confuse novice bettors that view this forum for advice

    Stop over complicating things. If you think a fighter has a better chance to win than the odds suggest (use a probability calculator like https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html to determine what the odds suggest) then bet them. Simple

    I have bet 1u on Bec because the odds suggest she only has a 33% chance of winning when I think she has a 50% chance
     
  11. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Wow every fight has great lb potential. Ukram any news on 365 schedule i can never see what you see must be cos i use my phone? They said main card only last time but offered lb halfway through fox prelims.
     
  12. Ballsaque Brown Belt

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    How about y'all stop replying to this idiot and just report him like sane people.
     
  13. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Some 5d props I'm hitting:

    Condit UD +900
    Maia +5.5 -135

    If it plays out how a lot of us think it could we could see Maia control Condit on the mat for the first 10 minutes, then see Condit take over with better cardio. If Maia doesn't win early and Condit does clearly take over late, there's a chance both of these could hit. Plus if you take the Maia +5.5 and he hasn't finished within 2 rounds but is clearly winning, should be able to get a solid hedge LB on Condit.
     
  14. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    We don't take the easy way out here!

    (Yeah you're probably right...)
     
  15. wack3d Silver Belt

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    guess i have to buy it to see what all this fuzz is about :D
     
  16. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    The Maia-Condit fight seems too obvious. I hope Condit KO's him early
     
  17. barrygood1 Blue Belt

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    Reached 250 likes and received a milestone award to boot. You know what that means fellas, 1 Free Pick and you can be safe knowing it's coming from someone with legit credentials. Research is done after an exhausting and grueling capping session in the lab. Had chug 5 Redbulls just to keep myself from dozing off.

    This is what we're going to do for tonight's card. We're putting money on the BJJ savant and Abu Dhabi grand champion Damien Maia. Getting him at plus odds is delicious. See Condit checked out from fighting. Reading between the lines he needs the money which is only reason he's come back. Hasn't fought in like forever so another factor is ring rust. His take down defense is abysmal and only decisive advantage is cardio which is negated by lengthy inactivity. Standup is better but feel he needs to over commit which will have him on his back with the BJJ ace working his magic.

    Damien Maia for 1U @ +105 M/L banger as Barry's value pick

    Just remember to give credit to the one who keeps making you guys money. If you've followed my plays lately you'd have made a fortune!

    A quick rundown of my previous Value Picks which might convince ya'll I'm the real deal Holyfield
    - McGregor
    - Woodley
    - Shevchenko
    - Nunes

    - Barry
     
  18. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Uh oh Barry and this Intersports goof in the same thread.

    Isn't this like 2 black holes colliding or something? Everything is sucked into it, nothing can escape. Matter, light, your bankroll...
     
  19. RyuDave Green Belt

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    Bore off
     
  20. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    Barry vs. infersports

    The Artem Lobov vs. Chris Avila of betting
     
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